Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change

Environmental Management - Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological...     

Arsenic bioaccessibility in a gold mining area: a health risk assessment for children

High concentrations of total arsenic (As) have been measured in soils of gold mining areas of Brazil. However, bioaccessibility tests have not yet been conducted on those materials, which is essential for better health risk estimates. This study aimed at?evaluating As bioaccessibility in samples from a gold mining area located in Brazil and assessing children's exposure to As-contaminated materials. Samples were collected from different materials (a control and four As-contaminated soils/sediments) found in a gold mine area located in Paracatu (MG), Brazil. Total and bioaccessible As concentrations were determined for all samples. The control soil presented the lowest As concentrations, while all other materials contained high total As concentrations (up to 2,666?mg?kg(-1)) and low bioaccessible As percentage (<4.2%), indicating a low risk from exposure of resident children next to this area. The calculated dose of exposure indicated that, except for the pond tailings, in all other areas, the exposure route considering soil ingestion contributed at most to 9.7% of the maximum As allowed ingestion per day (0.3?μg?kg(-1) BW day(-1)).     

Photocatalysis for arsenic removal from water: considerations for solar photocatalytic reactors

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The following work provides a perspective on the potential application of solar heterogeneous photocatalysis, which is a nonselective advanced...     

The functional and physiological status of Gammarus fossarum (Crustacea; Amphipoda) exposed to secondary treated wastewater

Climate change scenarios predict lower flow rates during summer that may lead to higher proportions of wastewater in small and medium sized streams. Moreover, micropollutants (e.g. pharmaceuticals and other contaminants) continuously enter aquatic environments via treated wastewater. However, there is a paucity of knowledge, whether extended exposure to secondary treated wastewater disrupts important ecosystem functions, e.g. leaf breakdown. Therefore, the amphipod shredder Gammarus fossarum was exposed to natural stream water (n = 34) and secondary treated wastewater (n = 32) for four weeks in a semi-static test system under laboratory conditions. G. fossarum exposed to wastewater showed significant reductions in feeding rate (25%), absolute consumption (35%), food assimilation (50%), dry weight (18%) and lipid content (22%). Thus, high proportions of wastewater in the stream flow may affect both the breakdown rates of leaf material and thus the availability of energy for the aquatic food web as well as the energy budget of G. fossarum.     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Thermodynamic analysis of the energy recovery from the aerobic bioconversion of solid urban waste organic fraction

Waste management is of the utmost importance for many countries and especially for highly developed ones due to its implications on society. In particular, proper treatment before disposal of the solid urban waste organic fraction is one of the main issues that is addressed in waste management. In fact, the organic fraction is particularly reactive and if disposed in sanitary landfills without previous adequate treatment, a large amount of dangerous and polluting gaseous, liquid and solid substances can be produced. Some waste treatment processes can also present an opportunity to produce other by-products like energy, recycled materials and other products with both economic and environmental benefits. In this paper, the aerobic treatment of the organic fraction of solid urban waste, performed in a biocell plant with the possibility of recovering heat for civil or industrial needs, was examined from the thermodynamic point of view. A theoretical model was proposed both for the biological process of the organic fraction, as well as for the heat recovery system. The most significant results are represented and discussed.     

Detection of feral GT73 transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus) along railway lines on entry routes to oilseed factories in Switzerland

To obtain a reference status prior to cultivation of genetically modified oilseed rape (OSR, Brassica napus L.) in Switzerland, the occurrence of feral OSR was monitored along transportation routes and at processing sites. The focus was set on the detection of (transgenic) OSR along railway lines from the Swiss borders with Italy and France to the respective oilseed processing factories in Southern and Northern Switzerland (Ticino and region of Basel). A monitoring concept was developed to identify sites of largest risk of escape of genetically modified plants into the environment in Switzerland. Transport spillage of OSR seeds from railway goods cars particularly at risk hot spots such as switch yards and (un)loading points but also incidental and continuous spillage were considered. All OSR plants, including their hybridization partners which were collected at the respective monitoring sites were analyzed for the presence of transgenes by real-time PCR. On sampling lengths each of 4.2 and 5.7 km, respectively, 461 and 1,574 plants were sampled in Ticino and the region of Basel. OSR plants were found most frequently along the routes to the oilseed facilities, and in larger amounts on risk hot spots compared to sites of random sampling. At three locations in both monitored regions, transgenic B. napus line GT73 carrying the glyphosate resistance transgenes gox and CP4 epsps were detected (Ticino, 22 plants; in the region of Basel, 159).