A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Rethinking assessment of success of mitigation strategies for elephant-induced crop damage

Crop damage is the most common impact of negative interactions between people and elephants and poses a significant threat to rural livelihoods and conservation efforts. Numerous approaches to mitigate and prevent crop damage have been implemented throughout Africa and Asia. Despite the documented high efficacy of many approaches, losses remain common, and in many areas, damage is intensifying. We examined the literature on effectiveness of crop-damage-mitigation strategies and identified key gaps in evaluations. We determined there is a need to better understand existing solutions within affected communities and to extend evaluations of effectiveness beyond measurement of efficacy to include rates of and barriers to adoption. We devised a conceptual framework for evaluating effectiveness that incorporates the need for increased emphasis on adoption and can be used to inform the design of future crop-damage mitigation assessments for elephants and conflict species more widely. The ability to prevent crop loss in practice is affected by both the efficacy of a given approach and rates of uptake among target users. We identified the primary factors that influence uptake as local attitudes, sustainability, and scalability and examined each of these factors in detail. We argue that even moderately efficacious interventions may make significant progress in preventing damage if widely employed and recommend that wherever possible scientists and practitioners engage with communities to build on and strengthen existing solutions and expertise. When new approaches are required, they should align with local attitudes and fit within limitations on labor, financial requirements, and technical capacity.     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Municipal anaerobic digesters for codigestion, energy recovery, and greenhouse gas reductions.

Codigestion of five wastes and municipal wastewater sludge was evaluated using full-scale testing. Synergistic, antagonistic, and neutral outcomes were observed depending on codigestate identity and concentration, highlighting the value of careful blending. Yeast waste resulted in notable synergism, increasing biogas production by over 50%, whereas aircraft deicing waste resulted in antagonism at high loadings and neutral outcomes at lower loadings. Restaurant waste codigestion resulted in neutral outcomes. The synergisim with yeast codigestates may have resulted from trace nutrients (i.e., iron, nickel, and cobalt) in the wastes that increased microbiological activity. Antagonist outcomes with deicing waste may have been the result of organic overload or inhibitory deicer constituents. Codigestion of wastes at the feed rates investigated was estimated to produce 0.50 ML/d of methane having an energy equivalent of 17 500 MJ/d. This was estimated to reduce net carbon dioxide emissions by 560 tonnes/y.     

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations in Methyl Mercury Concentrations in Zooplankton from Boreal Lakes Impacted by Deforestation or Natural Forest Fires

We compared the effects of natural and anthropogenic watershed disturbances on methyl mercury (MeHg) concentration in bulk zooplankton from boreal Shield lakes. MeHg in zooplankton was monitored for three years in nine lakes impacted by deforestation, in nine lakes impacted by wildfire, and in twenty lakes with undisturbed catchments. Lakes were sampled during spring, mid- and late summer. MeHg in zooplankton showed a seasonal trend: concentrations were the lowest in spring, then peaked in mid-summer and decreased in late summer. Over the three study years, MeHg concentrations observed in mid-summer in zooplankton from forest harvested lakes were significantly higher than in reference and fire-impacted lakes, whereas differences between these two groups of lakes were not significant. The pattern of distribution of MeHg in zooplankton during the different seasons paralleled that of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is known as a vector of Hg from watershed soils to lake water. Besides DOC, MeHg in zooplankton also showed a positive significant correlation with epilimnetic temperature and sulfate concentrations. An inter-annual decreasing trend in MeHg was observed in zooplankton from reference and fire-impacted lakes. In forest harvested lakes, however, MeHg concentrations remained higher and nearly constant over three years following the impact. Overall these results indicate that the MeHg pulse observed in zooplankton following deforestation by harvesting is relatively long-lived, and may have repercussions to the accumulation of MeHg along the food chain. Therefore, potential effects of deforestation on the Hg contamination of fish should be taken into account in forest management practices.     

Total quality practitioner. Improving environmental process

Quick fix. Putting out firs. Do it over. Fix it again. Bottlenecks. Come back to it later. Out of stock. Back order. Not what we ordered. Is that the best you can do? It's the contractor's fault. Not within specs. Defective. Nobody's perfect. Lost in the system. Over budget. Delayed. Late penalities. Fines.     

Trophoblast-like cells sorted from peripheral maternal blood using flow cytometry: A multiparametric study involving transmission electron microscopy and fetal dna amplification

Three monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) against trophoblast (GB17, GB21, and GB25) and flow cytometry were used to sort trophoblast-like cells (TLCs) from peripheral blood of pregnant women. Sorted TLCs were processed for electron microscopy and fetal DNA amplification of the Y-specific sequences from mothers carrying male fetuses. At the ultra-structural level, most of the nucleated cells had the morphology of leucocytes, suggesting maternal contaminants, and we did not find the characteristic features of the free inter-villous trophoblast cells. Nevertheless, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis showed an amplification of Y-specific sequences in two out of three samples of sorted TLCs. These results suggest that besides the maternal leucocytes, sufficient trophoblast nucleated fetal cells can be obtained using cell enrichment by sorting. This sensitive method holds promise for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of fetal sex and if sufficient Y(positive) nuclei are found, for the diagnosis of selected numerical chromosome abnormalities.