A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

The short-term effects of prescribed burning on biomass removal and the release of nitrogen and phosphorus in a treatment wetland

Nutrient removal by constructed wetlands can decline over time due to the accumulation of organic matter. A prescribed burn is one of many management strategies used to remove detritus in macrophyte-dominated systems. We quantified the short-term effects on effluent water quality and the amount of aboveground detritus removed from a prescribed burn event. Surface water outflow concentrations were approximately three times higher for P and 1.5 times higher for total Kjeldhal nitrogen (TKN) following the burn event when compared to the control. The length of time over which the fire effect was significant (P < 0.05), 3 d for TKN and up to 23 d for P fractions. Over time, the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in the effluent decreased, but was compensated with increases in dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) and particulate phosphorus (PP), such that net total P remained the same. Total aboveground biomass decreased by 68.5% as a result of the burn, however, much of the live vegetation was converted to standing dead material. These results demonstrate that a prescribed burn can significantly decrease the amount of senescent organic matter in a constructed wetland. However, short-term nutrient releases following the burn could increase effluent nutrient concentrations. Therefore, management strategies should include hydraulically isolating the burned area immediately following the burn event to prevent nutrient export.     

Effect of shore position and environmental metal levels on body metal burdens in the barnacle, Elminius modestus

Body (thorax and prosoma) weight, shell growth, and Zn, Cu, Fe, Mn and Ca levels were measured in artificially settled Elminius modestus over a 14-month period following transfer to high, mid and low tide positions in the uncontaminated Menai Strait and two mid tide sites within a Zn and Cu polluted bay on the North West coast of Anglesey. Barnacles showed higher mortality and slower growth at the upper shore position than at any other site. There was no evidence of Zn and Cu regulation by the bodies or shells, and both seemed to reflect environmental levels. Body metal levels were lowest in early winter and the highest second year values were found in January (Zn), March (Cu, Fe) or May (Ca). Higher shore barnacles contained larger concentrations of Zn than mid or low tide animals. Differences in feeding activity and the amount of testes may account for these variations. Reciprocal transplants between polluted and 'clean' sites indicate that body Cu and Zn accumulation and loss was very rapid. Spatial and temporal changes in shell metal levels closely mirror that of the body.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Incorporating natural capital into economy-wide impact analysis: a case study from Alberta

Traditionally, decision-makers have relied on economic impactestimates derived from conventional economy-wide models. Conventional models lack the environmental linkages necessary for examining environmental stewardship and economic sustainability, and in particular the ability to assess the impact of policies on natural capital. This study investigatesenvironmentally extended economic impact estimation on a regionalscale using a case study region in the province of Alberta knownas the Foothills Model Forest (FMF). Conventional economic impactmodels are environmentally extended in pursuit of enhancingpolicy analysis and local decision-making. It is found that theflexibility of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelingapproach offers potential for environmental extension, with a solid grounding in economic theory. The CGE approach may be the tool of the future for more complete integrated environment andeconomic impact assessment.     

The organic composition of diesel particulate matter, diesel fuel and engine oil of a non-road diesel generator

Diesel-powered equipment is known to emit significant quantities of fine particulate matter to the atmosphere. Numerous organic compounds can be adsorbed onto the surfaces of these inhalable particles, among which polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are considered potential occupational carcinogens. Guidelines have been established by various agencies regarding diesel emissions and various control technologies are under development. The purpose of this study is to identify, quantify and compare the organic compounds in diesel particulate matter (DPM) with the diesel fuel and engine oil used in a non-road diesel generator. Approximately 90 organic compounds were quantified (with molecular weight ranging from 120 to 350), which include alkanes, PAHs, alkylated PAHs, alkylbenzenes and alkanoic acids. The low sulfur diesel fuel contains 61% alkanes and 7.1% of PAHs. The identifiable portion of the engine oil contains mainly the alkanoic and benzoic acids. The composition of DPM suggests that they may be originated from unburned diesel fuel, engine oil evaporation and combustion generated products. Compared with diesel fuel, DPM contains fewer fractions of alkanes and more PAH compounds, with the shift toward higher molecular weight ones. The enrichment of compounds with higher molecular weight in DPM may be combustion related (pyrogenic).