Simulating the fine and coarse inorganic particulate matter concentrations in a polluted megacity

A three dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) is applied to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to simulate the chemical composition and mass of the major PM₁ (fine) and PM_1–10 (coarse) inorganic components and determine the effect of mineral dust on their formation. The aerosol thermodynamic model ISORROPIA-II is used to explicitly simulate the effect of Ca, Mg, and K from dust on semi-volatile partitioning and water uptake. The hybrid approach is applied to simulate the inorganic components, assuming that the smallest particles are in thermodynamic equilibrium, while describing the mass transfer to and from the larger ones. The official MCMA 2004 emissions inventory with improved dust and NaCl emissions is used. The comparison between the model predictions and measurements during a week of April of 2003 at Centro Nacional de Investigacion y Capacitacion Ambiental (CENICA) “Supersite” shows that the model reproduces reasonably well the fine mode composition and its diurnal variation. Sulfate predicted levels are relatively uniform in the area (approximately 3 μg m^?3), while ammonium nitrate peaks in Mexico City (approximately 7 μg m^?3) and its concentration rapidly decreases due to dilution and evaporation away from the urban area. In areas of high dust concentrations, the associated alkalinity is predicted to increase the concentration of nitrate, chloride and ammonium in the coarse mode by up to 2 μg m^?3 (a factor of 10), 0.4 μg m^?3, and 0.6 μg m^?3 (75%), respectively. The predicted ammonium nitrate levels inside Mexico City for this period are sensitive to the physical state (solid versus liquid) of the particles during periods with RH less than 50%.     

An assessment of the risks associated with PCDDs and PCDFs following the application of sewage sludge to agricultural land in the UK

A model has been developed to describe the transfer of PCDDs and PCDFs from sludge-amended soils to the human foodchain. The model is conservative and assumes that all foods consumed by an individual are derived from sludge-amended soils. Predicted concentrations of PCDDs and PCDFs in potatoes, cereals, root vegetables and leafy vegetables were in close agreement with mean concentrations reported in the food survey conducted by MAFF in the UK. Predicted concentrations in milk were well below the Maximum Tolerable Concentration adopted by MAFF. Assuming a half-life of ten years in sludge-amended soils, the maximum estimated incremental daily intake (IDI) predicted by the model following ten applications of sludge to agricultural land was 0.80 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹, representing an increase of approximately 45% on current levels of background exposure. For an individual whose diet is solely derived from sludge-amended soils, the total exposure is predicted to be approximately 181 pg I-TEQ day⁻¹ or 2.6 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹. This compares with an average background exposure of approximately 2 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹, well within the TDI of 10 pg I-TEQ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹ and indicates that the application of sewage sludge to agricultural land under the conditions assumed would not appear to present a significant health risk under the conservative scenarios considered in this assessment.     

Modeling an air pollution episode in northwestern United States: Identifying the effect of nitrogen oxide and volatile organic compound emission changes on air pollutants formation using direct sensitivity analysis

Air quality impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from major sources over the northwestern United States are simulated. The comprehensive nested modeling system comprises three models: Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE). In addition, the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) is used to determine the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations to changes in precursor emissions during a severe smog episode in July of 2006. The average simulated 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentration is 48.9 ppb, with 1-hr O₃ maxima up to 106 ppb (40 km southeast of Seattle). The average simulated PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) concentration at the measurement sites is 9.06 μg m^?3, which is in good agreement with the observed concentration (8.06 μg m^?3). In urban areas (i.e., Seattle, Vancouver, etc.), the model predicts that, on average, a reduction of NO_x emissions is simulated to lead to an increase in average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations, and will be most prominent in Seattle (where the greatest sensitivity is??0.2 ppb per % change of mobile sources). On the other hand, decreasing NO_x emissions is simulated to decrease the 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations in remote and forested areas. Decreased NO_x emissions are simulated to slightly increase PM_2.5 in major urban areas. In urban areas, a decrease in VOC emissions will result in a decrease of 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations. The impact of decreased VOC emissions from biogenic, mobile, nonroad, and area sources on average 8-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations is up to 0.05 ppb decrease per % of emission change, each. Decreased emissions of VOCs decrease average PM_2.5 concentrations in the entire modeling domain. In major cities, PM_2.5 concentrations are more sensitive to emissions of VOCs from biogenic sources than other sources of VOCs. These results can be used to interpret the effectiveness of VOC or NO_x controls over pollutant concentrations, especially for localities that may exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).

Implications: The effect of NO_x and VOC controls on ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in the northwestern United States is examined using the decoupled direct method in three dimensions (DDM-3D) in a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (CMAQ). NO_x controls are predicted to increase PM_2.5 and ozone in major urban areas and decrease ozone in more remote and forested areas. VOC reductions are helpful in reducing ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations in urban areas. Biogenic VOC sources have the largest impact on O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations.     

Response of inorganic fine particulate matter to emission changes of sulfur dioxide and ammonia: the eastern United States as a case study

A three-dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) was used to investigate changes in fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations in response to changes in sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ammonia (NH3) emissions during July 2001 and January 2002 in the eastern United States. A uniform 50% reduction in SO2 emissions was predicted to produce an average decrease of PM2.5 concentrations by 26% during July but only 6% during January. A 50% reduction of NH3 emissions leads to an average 4 and 9% decrease in PM2.5 in July and January, respectively. During the summer, the highest concentration of sulfate is in South Indiana (12.8 microg x m(-3)), and the 50% reduction of SO2 emissions results in a 5.7 microg x m(-3) (44%) sulfate decrease over this area. During winter, the SO2 emissions reduction results in a 1.5 microg x m(-3) (29%) decrease of the peak sulfate levels (5.2 microg x m(-3)) over Southeast Georgia. The maximum nitrate and ammonium concentrations are predicted to be over the Midwest (1.9 (-3)g x m(-3) in Ohio and 5.3 microg x m(-3) in South Indiana, respectively) in the summer whereas in the winter these concentrations are higher over the Northeast (3 microg x m(-3) of nitrate in Connecticut and 2.7 microg x m(-3) of ammonium in New York). The 50% NH3 emissions reduction is more effective for controlling nitrate, compared with SO2 reductions, producing a 1.1 microg x m(-3) nitrate decrease over Ohio in July and a 1.2 microg x m(-3) decrease over Connecticut in January. Ammonium decreases significantly when either SO2 or NH3 emissions are decreased. However, the SO2 control strategy has better results in July when ammonium decreases, up to 2 microg x m(-3) (37%), are predicted in South Indiana. The NH3 control strategy has better results in January (ammonium decreases up to 0.4 microg x m(-3) in New York). The spatial and temporal characteristics of the effectiveness of these emission control strategies during the summer and winter seasons are discussed.