Urban stream syndrome in a small,lightly developed watershed: a statistical analysis of water chemistry parameters,land use patterns,and natural sources

The relationships among land use patterns, geology, soil, and major solute concentrations in stream water for eight tributaries of the Kayaderosseras Creek watershed in Saratoga County, NY, were investigated using Pearson correlation coefficients and multivariate regression analysis. Sub-watersheds corresponding to each sampling site were delineated, and land use patterns were determined for each of the eight sub-watersheds using GIS. Four land use categories (urban development, agriculture, forests, and wetlands) constituted more than 99 % of the land in the sub-watersheds. Eleven water chemistry parameters were highly and positively correlated with each other and urban development. Multivariate regression models indicated urban development was the most powerful predictor for the same eleven parameters (conductivity, TN, TP, NO $_{3}^-$ , Cl^?, HCO $_{3}^-$ , SO $_{4}^{2-}$ , Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺). Adjusted R ² values, ranging from 19 to 91 %, indicated that these models explained an average of 64 % of the variance in these 11 parameters across the samples and 70 % when Mg²⁺ was omitted. The more common R ², ranging from 29 to 92 %, averaged 68 % for these 11 parameters and 72 % when Mg²⁺ was omitted. Water quality improved most with forest coverage in stream watersheds. The strong associations between water quality variables and urban development indicated an urban source for these 11 water quality parameters at all eight sampling sites was likely, suggesting that urban stream syndrome can be detected even on a relatively small scale in a lightly developed area. Possible urban sources of Ca²⁺ and HCO $_{3}^-$ are suggested.