Population crash: prospects for famine in the twenty-first century

For centuries famine arose as a seemingly endless series of acute, regional and unanticipated events; it has transformed into a phenomenon, global in scale and continuous in nature. Half the world’s human population perpetually suffers some form of malnourishment, from either a scarcity of calories, protein or micronutrients or from a combination of these. Sheer population size has rendered the scale of suffering unprecedented. Perpetual famine has emerged during an era of abundant and relatively inexpensive soil, water and energy resources, improving crop yields, and a benign climate. However, the twentieth century trends of resource degradation, diminishing growth in crop yields and a warming atmosphere will likely continue, latently and perhaps synergistically impacting agricultural production, and therefore, threatening food security in the twenty-first century. Assuming some proportional relationship between food security and these resources, famine is here projected to greatly increase in the coming decades, severely impacting billions of people.     

Mercury proxies and mercury dynamics in a forested watershed of the US Northeast

Although many studies focus on mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) dynamics in streams, challenges remain in identifying the relative importance of land cover and seasonality at regulating Hg and MeHg dynamics at the watershed scale. Developing robust proxies for Hg and/or MeHg determination also remains a challenge. Our study used Hg, MeHg, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration measurements and various DOC fluorescence indices to characterize Hg and DOC dynamics in a forested watershed of the US Northeast. Principal component analysis indicated that land cover/landscape position (i.e., headwater vs. wetland-influenced area vs. lake-influenced area) explained 44 % of the variance in Hg, MeHg, DOC concentrations, and DOC quality during the snow-free season, while seasonality (i.e., air temperature and discharge) explained only 21 % of the variance in the results. Furthermore, finding a good proxy for Hg that is valid across a range of landscape positions remains a challenge; however, regression analysis indicated that the fluorescence peak Humic C (excitation?=?350 nm; emission?=?max (420–480)), which corresponds to the presence of melanoidins in water, explained 21 % of the variability in MeHg concentrations across both space and time (p?=?0.001), and thus appears to be a possible proxy for MeHg determination in our study watershed. From a management perspective, land cover modifications (lake, reservoir, and wetland) are likely to play more important roles at regulating Hg, MeHg, and DOC exports at the watershed scale than long-term changes in the climate of this region.     

Rational forest productivity decline

A whole forest optimisation model was employed to examine economic behaviour as it relates to long term, forest productivity decline in the boreal forests of Ontario, Canada. Our productivity investment model(PIM) incorporated a choice between productivity decline as representedby a drop in forest Site Class, and a fee to 'maintain' site productivity. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the point at which these fees exceeded the value of the differential in timber volume between upper and lower site classes. By varying discount rate, 'productivity investment frontiers' were constructed, which highlight the effects of the magnitude in productivity decline, maintenance fees, and harvest flow constraints upon the occurrence and schedule of productivity declines. In presenting this simple approach to exploring the effects of economic choice upon forest productivity decline, the phenomena of 'natural capital divestment' within forestry is described.     

Effect of Flow Depth and Velocity on Nitrate Loss Rates in Natural Channels1

Carleton, James N. and Yusuf M. Mohamoud, 2012. Effect of Flow Depth and Velocity on Nitrate Loss Rates in Natural Channels. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12007 Abstract: Loss rates of nitrate from streams and rivers are governed by movement of the ion from water column to anoxic bed sediments. Quantitative representations of nitrate in streams and rivers have often treated such losses as governed by first‐order mechanisms that are invariant with respect to potential modulating factors other than temperature. Results of studies in recent years, however, suggest that rates of water column‐sediment mass transfer are influenced by stream geometry and associated hydraulics. We develop expressions for the instream nitrate loss rate coefficient, k, as a function of water velocity and depth, using hydraulic geometry to empirically relate velocity to depth for two cases: (1) variability in mean conditions among reaches; and (2) temporal variability in conditions at a single reach, under changing flow. The result is expressions for k as functions of water column depth. Measured stream k values reported in the literature are shown to be well represented by expressions developed for the first case, and the potential for application to probabilistic analysis is briefly examined. We explore the latter case using the Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF) model, modified to incorporate the dependence of k on instantaneous stream depth. In example simulations of two nitrate‐exporting watersheds, the incorporation of depth‐dependence of k produces improvement in the model’s ability to match observed stream nitrate concentrations.     

Resident mysids: community structure,abundance and small-scale distributions in a coral reef lagoon

Seasonal and diel variations in community structure and abundance of coral-reef lagoon mysids were examined at Davies Reef in the central region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) between June 1980 and May 1981. Twenty-five mysid species belonging to three subfamilies of the family Mysidae were captured during the study, with six new records for the GBR. The epibenthic mysid community differed from that in the overlying water, was faunistically uniform, but formed characteristic seasonal and diel groupings. The dominant epibenthic species were Erythrops sp., Anisomysis pelewensis, Doxomysis littoralis, A. laticauda, Prionomysis stenolepis, A. lamellicauda, and A. australis, five of which formed schools. Total mysid abundances ranged between 110 and 790 m^-3 with peak abundance in October. Schooling species occurred at local densities of up to 500 000 m^-3. Mysids were absent from shallow and midwater depths during the day, but were distributed throughout all depths at night with peak abundances in mid-water and deep layers. The dominant species in the water column at night were Pseudanchialina inermis, A. laticauda and Gastrosaccus indicus, in descending order of abundance. Lagoonal mysids contribute little to the food of sessile reef planktivores, as all but three species remain concentrated near or on the lagoon floor both day and night. The contribution of resident lagoon mysids to reef trophodynamics is probably through remineralization of lagoon detritus. Given the vast reef areas comprised of sandy lagoons, the large populations and relatively large size of lagoon mysids, this trophodynamic role may be of considerable importance.A.I.M.S. Contribution No. 477     

Ecosystem Modeling Applied to Nutrient Criteria Development in Rivers

Threshold concentrations for biological impairment by nutrients are difficult to quantify in lotic systems, yet States and Tribes in the United States are charged with developing water quality criteria to protect these ecosystems from excessive enrichment. The analysis described in this article explores the use of the ecosystem model AQUATOX to investigate impairment thresholds keyed to biological indexes that can be simulated. The indexes selected for this exercise include percentage cyanobacterial biomass of sestonic algae, and benthic chlorophyll a. The calibrated model was used to analyze responses of these indexes to concurrent reductions in phosphorus, nitrogen, and suspended sediment in an enriched upper Midwestern river. Results suggest that the indexes would respond strongly to changes in phosphorus and suspended sediment, and less strongly to changes in nitrogen concentration. Using simulated concurrent reductions in all three water quality constituents, a total phosphorus concentration of 0.1 mg/l was identified as a threshold concentration, and therefore a hypothetical water quality criterion, for prevention of both excessive periphyton growth and sestonic cyanobacterial blooms. This kind of analysis is suggested as a way to evaluate multiple contrasting impacts of hypothetical nutrient and sediment reductions and to define nutrient criteria or target concentrations that balance multiple management objectives concurrently. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the authors alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency or of the U.S. Government.     

Changing Species Richness and Composition in Canadian National Parks

Abstract: Canada's national parks and their surrounding areas differ markedly in size, climate, vegetation, and extent of human development. We tested the extent to which total species richness, native species richness, and the number of extirpations and introductions of terrestrial vertebrates were correlated with each of these factors. To do this, we used surveys of park fauna from the present and from the time of park establishment. Richness, extirpations, and introductions were all strongly related to climate. After we controlled for climate, smaller parks had higher rates of species loss than larger parks. Land-use patterns (forest cover and fragmentation, roads, etc.) within parks were strongly correlated with land use in the regions surrounding the parks, showing that parks have not been isolated from regional development. Richness and extirpations within parks were generally more strongly related to regional characteristics than to the characteristics of the parks themselves. Species richness and numbers of introduced species were higher in parks found in landscapes with greater fragmentation. Frequencies of extirpations were less clearly related to human-influenced habitat characteristics. Introductions and extinctions most often involved game species or species directly associated with human activities. There is little evidence of subtle ecological effects being responsible for species loss. Our results suggest that management should focus on direct human interventions, such as hunting, introduction of game species, and habitat fragmentation, in parks and surrounding areas.     

Benthic macrofaunal compositional variations in the northern Bering Sea

Point sampling of soft-sediment macrofauna provided a regional-scale analysis of species composition, diversity, and demographic distributions in the northern Bering Sea (61°0??C65°30??N Lat) in spring 2006. Taxonomic differences distinguished subregions north and south of St. Lawrence Island (P?<?0.1%). High compositional variability occurred within and between sites, with higher variability among northern sites. One to two species dominated most assemblages, with moderately common or rare species. Ampeliscid amphipods characterized the north, and bivalves the south. Bivalves (Macoma calcarea Gmelin, Nuculana radiata Krause, Ennucula tenuis Montagu) were commonly widespread, in varied abundances and sizes. Overall, the extensive soft-sediment habitat supports a varied fauna composition with location, in species dominance, abundance, and size-class. This spatially heterogeneous regional structure is important in assessing ecosystem performance related to secondary production, biogeochemistry, bioturbation, top predator feeding strategy, recruitment, and in measuring change.