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Building future scenarios and uncovering persisting challenges of participatory forest management in Chilimo Forest, Central Ethiopia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kassa H Campbell B Sandewall M Kebede M Tesfaye Y Dessie G Seifu A Tadesse M Garedew E Sandewall K 《Journal of environmental management》2009,90(2):1004-1013
We examined the changes in forest status and people's livelihoods through building future scenarios for Chilimo Forest in Central Ethiopia where participatory forest management (PFM) is being implemented. Participatory methods were employed to collect data, and a dynamic modeling technique was applied to explore trends over time. By integrating the more quantitative model outputs with qualitative insights, information on forests and livelihoods was summarized and returned to users, both to inform them and get feedback. A scenario of open access without PFM provides higher income benefits in the short term but not over the longer term, as compared to a scenario with PFM. Follow up meetings were organized with national decision makers to explore the possibility of new provisions in the national forest proclamation related to joint community-state ownership of forests. Project implementers must constantly work towards improving short term incentives from PFM, as these may be insufficient to garner support for PFM. Other necessary elements for PFM to succeed include: ensuring active participation of the communities in the process; and, clarifying and harmonizing the rules and regulations at different levels. 相似文献
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Efrem Castelnuovo Michele Moretto Sergio Vergalli 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2003,8(4):291-301
What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&;D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. (2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto (1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&;D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO2 emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&;D expenditures trigger the “engine of growth” exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed (1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999). 相似文献
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A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural
resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm
households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council.
The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years
and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population
growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if
current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance,
family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth
is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based
on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that
as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process. 相似文献
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Efrem Garedew Mats Sandewall Ulf Söderberg Bruce M. Campbell 《Environmental management》2009,44(4):683-694
Understanding the complexity of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes and their driving forces and impacts on human and environmental
security is important for the planning of natural resource management and associated decision making. This study combines
and compares participatory field point sampling (pfps) and remote sensing to explore local LULC dynamics. The study was conducted
in two peasant associations located in the central Ethiopian Rift Valley, which is a dry-land mixed farming area exposed to
rapid deforestation. From 1973–2006, the area of cropland doubled at the expense of woodland and wooded-grassland in both
of the study sites. Major deforestation and forest degradation took place from 1973–1986; woodland cover declined from 40%
to 9% in one of the study sites, while the other lost all of its original 54% woodland cover. Our study concludes that assessing
LULC dynamics using a combination of remote sensing and pfps is a valuable approach. The two methods revealed similar LULC
trends, while the pfps provided additional details on how farmers view the changes. This study documents dramatic trends in
LULC over time, associated with rapid population growth, recurrent drought, rainfall variability and declining crop productivity.
The alarming nature of these trends is reflected in a decrease in the livelihood security of local communities and in environmental
degradation. Given these dry-land conditions, there are few opportunities to improve livelihoods and environmental security
without external support. If negative changes are to be halted, action must be taken, including building asset bases, instituting
family planning services, and creating opportunities outside these marginal environments. 相似文献
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