成都平原蔬菜生产中灌溉水对农药渗漏的影响研究

针对成都平原蔬菜生产中大量施用农药、大量灌水的特点,首次在国内应用欧洲官方成熟的农药评估模型——PEARL模型,研究评估了成都平原当前蔬菜生产中的灌溉方式对两种不同特性农药的渗漏的影响。杀毒矾(土壤吸附力(KOM)为0 L/kg,半衰期(DT50)为80 d)在没有灌溉条件下,其渗出土体时的最大质量浓度是190μg.L-1,而有灌溉条件下其渗出质量浓度则可达523μg.L-1,是没有灌溉条件下的2.75倍。三唑磷(KOM为200 L.kg-1,DT50为60 d)在没有灌溉条件下,其渗出土体时的最大质量浓度是0.025μg.L-1,而有灌溉条件下其渗出质量浓度为0.13μg.L-1,比没有灌溉时提高了4.2倍。不管有没有灌溉三唑磷在该地区对地下水的污染风险都很小,而杀毒矾的风险则很高。因此,农药的化学特性是影响农药渗漏的最重要的因子。在蔬菜生产中应尽量选用被土壤吸附力强、半衰期短的农药,例如:三唑磷;农药在土壤中的移动载体是土壤水,不合理的灌溉会大大地加大农药淋溶,应当多使用微喷、滴灌等节水灌溉措施,减少使用漫灌等耗水多的原始灌溉方式。     

Migration drivers in mountain regions in the context of climate change:A case study in Shangnan County of China

Climate change has become widely accepted as a challenge that humans will face in the not-too-distant future.Mountain ecosystems and their inhabitants are among the most vulnerable to climate change.This paper seeks to explain migration drivers in specific mountain regions in the context of climate change based on Foresight’s conceptual framework.A climate change sensitive field named Shangnan County in southern Shaanxi Province is chosen as the case study area to investigate local migration drivers.A series of qualitative research methods is employed in the case study including participant observation,semi-structured interviews,and focus group discussions.The evidence of survey suggests that migration decisions are not only shaped by macro factors in aspects of environmental,economics,demographic,social,politics and psychological,but also influenced by placed-related barriers and facilitating mechanisms and personal characteristics.     

Training future experts in “biodiversity and ecosystem services”: a progress report

Biodiversity is essential for multiple aspects of human life and well-being, but many current assessments of the functioning of biodiversity and ecosystems, understanding of risks posed by environmental change and the best practice of their management of ecosystems are lacking a unified scientific and conceptual basis. Methods such as scenario analysis, and terms such as ecosystem services, are widely used, but their meaning is understood in many different ways depending on context, user needs and experience of researchers. In order to advance the conceptual basis for ecosystem analysis and management in a rapidly changing world, as well as the ability of young scientists to reflect upon these concepts, we have organised five 2-week-long summer schools in Peyresq, a remote village in the Southern French Alps. In total 173 participants have worked intensively with 69 experienced researchers and a team of conveners and tutors in order to discuss a broad range of views on topics on ecosystem analysis and functioning. Topics ranged from conditions of and threats to various ecosystems due to environmental change, models and scenarios for assessment, stakeholder perceptions and needs for information, to the social and economic contexts for biodiversity. We report our experience from these schools, present the training concept which has emerged from them and suggest lines of further development.

A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability

A stakeholder dialogue was embedded in the ATEAM project to facilitate the development and dissemination of its European-wide vulnerability assessment of global change impacts. Participating stakeholders were primarily ecosystem managers and policy advisers interested in potential impacts on ‘Agriculture’, ‘Forestry’, ‘Water’, ‘Carbon storage’, ‘Biodiversity’ and ‘Mountain environments’ sectors. First, stakeholder dialogue approaches to integrated assessment are introduced. Methodological considerations on stakeholder selection and dialogue implementation and evaluation follow. The dialogue content and process are evaluated from the perspectives of stakeholders and scientists. Its usefulness in the research process and the relevance of outcomes for stakeholders are particularly considered. The challenging compromises required to perform innovative research, which seeks to achieve both peer scientific credibility and societal relevance, are emphasized. Effective stakeholder dialogues play a substantial role in raising the visibility and meaningfulness of vulnerability assessments as critical means to improve awareness on global change and its potential worrying impacts on society. They further provide scientists with critical information on ecosystem management and sectoral adaptive capacity. These processes of mutual learning and knowledge exchange moreover foster a better understanding of the potential and limits of global change modelling and vulnerability assessment for policy and ecosystem management.

Decision support in urban water management based on generic scenarios: The example of NoMix technology

Urine source separation (NoMix technology) followed by processing the concentrated nutrient solution has the potential to become a cost-efficient alternative to conventional end-of-pipe nutrient elimination. A choice of processing technologies can only be made for specific scenarios, and there is currently no methodology for analyzing generic situations. In setting up a formalized decision-support methodology (based on STEEPLED analysis), we discuss how to create such generic scenarios, how to couple them with process engineering objectives, how to define the technology requirements, and finally how to produce a realistic subset of technology alternatives. The methodology is tested in five real scenarios. We also touch on the criteria for a final choice of technology taking into account large uncertainties about the performance of real technologies. We conclude that technology development is one of the most important requirements for implementing urine source separation in practice. There is an urgent need to develop cost-efficient processing technologies that satisfy the requirements of stakeholders.     

Can zoning resolve nature use conflicts? The case of the Numto Nature Park in the Russian Arctic

In the Russian Arctic, nature protection is important to preserve valuable ecosystems and indigenous lifestyles against the rapidly expanding oil and gas activities. In this regard, zoning legitimately balances influential stakeholders versus weak ones, and can leverage stakeholders to exercise their rights. This study explores how various stakeholders employ zoning in the Numto Nature Park in the oil-rich Russian Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra to advance their interests and how they use scientific information to achieve this. Through stakeholder interviews, analysis of electronic media and literature review, we conclude that a participatory and science-based zoning exercise stimulates the necessary deliberation. However, legal ambiguity, deficient law implementation and informal practices limit the zoning's potential to balance stakeholders’ interests. All the stakeholders calculatingly used scientific information to legitimize their own ambitions, activities and claims. Hence, zoning and the underlying information claims should be interpreted as both a resource and a battleground in nature-use conflicts.     

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Determining the global significance of local and regional mitigation strategies: Setting the scene with global integrated assessment models

Because of the importance and complexity of the processes involved in the response of land cover and land use to changing environmental conditions, other approaches are required to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation options. One such approach is provided by the global integrated assessment model, IMAGE 2. This article presents the structure and some of the underlying assumptions of IMAGE 2, which illustrates the importance of feedback processes in evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options with respect to land use. Although models such as IMAGE 2 are unsuitable for local and national mitigation evaluations, they can be used to define the regional and global constraints of the smaller scale assessments.     

Global and Regional Impacts of Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2

Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO₂ concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.