Vulnerability of agro-ecological zones in India under the earth system climate model scenarios

India being a developing economy dependent on climate-sensitive sector like agriculture is highly vulnerable to impacts of global climate change. Vulnerability to climate change, however, differs spatially within the country owing to regional differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study uses the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) climate projections to assess the dynamics in vulnerability across four climate change exposure scenarios developed using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis was carried out at subnational (district) level; the results were interpreted and reported for their corresponding agro-ecological zones. Vulnerability of each district was quantified using indicators capturing climatic variability, ecological and demographic sensitivity, and socio-economic capacity. Our analysis further assigns probabilities to vulnerability classes of all the 579 districts falling under different agro-ecological zones. The results of the vulnerability profile show that Western plains, Northern plains, and central highlands of the arid and semi-arid agro-ecological zones are the most vulnerable regions in the current scenario (1950–2000). In the future scenario (2050), it extends along districts falling within Deccan plateau and Central (Malwa) highlands, lying in the arid and semi-arid zones, along with regions vulnerable in the current scenario, recording the highest vulnerability score across all exposure scenarios. These regions exhibit highest degree of variation in climatic parameters, ecological fragility, socio-economic marginality, and limited accessibility to resources, generating conditions of high vulnerability. The study emphasizes on the priority to take up adaptive management actions in the identified vulnerable districts to not only reduce risks of climate change, but also enhance their inherent capacity to withstand any future changes in climate. It provides a systematic approach to explicitly identify vulnerable regions, where regional planners and policy makers can build on existing adaptation decision-making by utilizing an interdisciplinary approach in the context of global change scenario.     

Vulnerability of forests in the Himalayan region to climate change impacts and anthropogenic disturbances: a systematic review

Regional Environmental Change - The Himalayan region is not only threatened by rapid changes in anthropogenic activities but also by global climate change. Given the uncertainties of magnitude and...     

Capturing forest dependency in the central Himalayan region: Variations between Oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus</Emphasis> spp.) and Pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus</Emphasis> spp.) dominated forest landscapes

Our study explores the nexus between forests and local communities through participatory assessments and household surveys in the central Himalayan region. Forest dependency was compared among villages surrounded by oak-dominated forests (n = 8) and pine-dominated forests (n = 9). Both quantitative and qualitative analyses indicate variations in the degree of dependency based on proximity to nearest forest type. Households near oak-dominated forests were more dependent on forests (83.8%) compared to households near pine-dominated forests (69.1%). Forest dependency is mainly subsistence-oriented for meeting basic household requirements. Livestock population, cultivated land per household, and non-usage of alternative fuels are the major explanatory drivers of forest dependency. Our findings can help decision and policy makers to establish nested governance mechanisms encouraging prioritized site-specific conservation options among forest-adjacent households. Additionally, income diversification with respect to alternate livelihood sources, institutional reforms, and infrastructure facilities can reduce forest dependency, thereby, allowing sustainable forest management.