Using an Allowance Reserve to Manage Uncertain Costs in a Cap-and-Trade Program for Greenhouse Gases

This paper investigates the design and performance of an allowance reserve in the context of a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases. We use a Monte Carlo approach in which the parameters of the marginal abatement cost function, and the supply of offsets, are drawn from specified distributions. Our framework focuses on the potential impact of “medium-run shocks” to abatement cost and offset supply, as opposed to either short-run volatility or permanent shifts in the cost curve. Our model suggests that under reasonable (and even fairly conservative) assumptions about abatement cost and offset supply, an allowance reserve broadly similar to recent proposals for US climate legislation can be effective in containing allowance prices. In our core policy scenario, with a trigger price equal to US $32 in 2015, we estimate that the probability of drawing on the allowance reserve is <25% and the probability of requiring more than 7?GT of reserve tons over 20?years is <5%. We also use the model to explore the trade-off among three features of the reserve that are most relevant to policy makers: the total size of the reserve, the trigger price, and the degree of confidence that the reserve will be large enough to limit allowance prices to the target level. Our essential result is that a lower trigger price, or a higher degree of confidence, requires a larger reserve.     

Linking Russia with the European and global greenhouse gas emissions trading markets: three paths for greening the Russian assigned amount under the Kyoto Protocol

This article examines possibilities for linkage between the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and Russia, with a view to enhancing cooperation on a broader scale than the project-based approaches that have been tested thus far. Three paths for possible EU-Russia linkage are presented by which the Russian Assigned Amount under the Kyoto Protocol can be greened in order to stimulate emissions trading: 1. Joint implementation—reductions earned via individual projects in Russia; 2. Greened allowances or green investment schemes; and 3. Linked cap-and-trade systems, in which a Russian domestic emissions trading system would link with the European Union Emissions Trading System. The authors conclude that the third option, emissions trading through linked domestic emissions trading systems, offers the best opportunities at the lowest transaction costs. The authors discuss useful innovative instruments like call options and slip level arrangements on government-to-government and business-to-business levels.

Changes in the Population Phenetic Structure of the Lacebug Dictyla humuli (Fabr.) (Heteroptera,Tingidae) in the Usman' Forest (Voronezh Oblast) in 1999–2001

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

Are all signals the same? Ontogenetic change in the response to conspecific and heterospecific chemical alarm signals by juvenile green sunfish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lepomis cyanellus</Emphasis>)

Within aquatic communities, individuals may gain survival benefits by responding to the chemical alarm signals of heterospecific prey guild members. Piscivorous individuals, however, should be selected to use such chemical signals as foraging cues. A variety of centrarchid species, such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), undergo an ontogenetic change in their response to the chemical alarm cues of heterospecific guild members, switching from antipredator to foraging responses. This ontogenetic shift should occur when potential foraging benefits outweigh any survival advantage gained from an antipredator response. To test this model, we exposed juvenile green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus) to the skin extracts of conspecifics, a heterospecific prey guild member (finescale dace, Phoxinus neogeaus) or an allopatric heterospecific (green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri). Juvenile sunfish exhibited a significant positive relationship between standard length and time spent moving and a significant negative relationship between length and time in a spine-erect posture, when exposed to dace skin extract, but not to either swordtail or conspecific skin extracts. Smaller individuals of less than 90 mm standard length (SL) decreased time moving and increased time with spines erect (indicating an antipredator response) while larger individuals (>90 mm SL) increased time moving and decreased time with spines erect (indicating a foraging response), when exposed to dace skin extract. Conversely, juvenile sunfish, regardless of size tested, always exhibited an antipredator response to conspecific skin extract. Sunfish exhibited no change in behaviour in response to swordtail skin extracts. These data further support our model of a threat sensitive trade-off in the response to chemical alarm signals by juvenile centrarchids.     

Arsenic tissue concentration of immature mice one hour after oral exposure to gold mine tailings

A potentially high bioavailability of arsenic in gold mine tailings from a site in northern California has been suggested by solubility studies. To help address this issue, an in vivo dosing study was conducted using 12dayold Swiss Webster mouse pups (n=8/group). A sample of sizefractionated mine tailings from the site (<20m particle size, 691g g^–1 arsenic) was prepared as an aqueous suspension and administered by gavage in a volume that provided 4mg As/kg body weight. The control group received the same volume of a commercial soil (1g g^–1 As) of similar particle size (<60m). No mortality or toxic signs were noted in either group. Tissue samples were collected 1h after gavage, freezedried, microwavedigested and analysed for arsenic by ICP/MS (detection limit 2ng As g^–1 dry weight). Arsenic concentrations (ng As g^–1 dry weight) in tissues from the pups who received mine tailings were significantly higher than in control tissues. The mean elevation in arsenic concentration was highest in the liver (3364% of control, p<0.0001), followed by blood (818 of control, p<0.0001), skin (207% of control, p=0.07), and brain (143% of control, p<0.0001). The carcass arsenic concentration (excluding the GI tract, liver, brain and skin) was 138 of control (p=0.02). The data indicate uptake of arsenic from weathered mine tailings by the immature mouse pups after oral exposure.     

Shock-induced ignition of hydrogen gas during accidental or technical opening of high-pressure tanks

This paper is devoted to the numerical and experimental investigation of hydrogen self-ignition as a result of the formation of a primary shock wave in front of a cold expanding hydrogen gas jet. Temperature increase, as a result of this shock wave, leads to the ignition of the hydrogen–air mixture formed on the contact surface. The required condition for hydrogen self-ignition is to maintain the high temperature in the area for a time long enough for hydrogen and air to mix and inflammation to take place.

Calculations of the self-ignition of a hydrogen jet are based on a physicochemical model involving the gas-dynamic transport of a viscous gas, the kinetics of hydrogen oxidation, the multi-component diffusion, and the heat exchange. We found that the reservoir pressure range, when a shock wave formed in the air during depressurization, has sufficient intensity to produce self-ignition of the hydrogen–air mixture formed at the front of a jet of compressed hydrogen. We present an analysis of the initial conditions (the hydrogen pressure inside the vessel, the temperature of the compressed hydrogen and the surrounding air, and the diameter of the hole through which the jet was emitted), which leads to combustion.     

Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches

Uncertainty plays a key role in the economics of climate change, and research on this topic has led to a substantial body of literature. However, the discussion on the policy implications of uncertainty is still far from being settled, partly because the uncertainty of climate change comes from a variety of sources and takes diverse forms. To reflect the multifaceted nature of climate change uncertainty better, an increasing number of analytical approaches have been used in the studies of integrated assessment models of climate change. The employed approaches could be seen as complements rather than as substitutes, each of which possesses distinctive strength for addressing a particular type of problems. We review these approaches—specifically, the non-recursive stochastic programming, the real option analysis, and the stochastic dynamic programming—their corresponding literatures and their respective policy implications. We also identify the current research gaps associated with the need for further developments of new analytical approaches.     

The power and pain of market-based carbon policies: a global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock production

The objectives of this research are to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of carbon policies applied to the ruminant livestock sector [inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), and goats (Capra hircus)]—with particular emphasis on understanding the adjustment challenges posed by such policies. We show that market-based mitigation policies can greatly amplify the mitigation potential identified in marginal abatement cost studies by harnessing powerful market forces such as product substitution and trade. We estimate that a carbon tax of US$20 per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent emissions could mitigate 626 metric megatons of CO₂ equivalent ruminant emissions per year (MtCO₂-eq year^?1). This policy would also incentivize a restructuring of cattle production, increasing the share of cattle meat coming from the multiproduct dairy sector compared to more emission intensive, single purpose beef sector. The mitigation potential from this simple policy represents an upper bound because it causes ruminant-based food production to fall and is therefore likely to be politically unpopular. In the spirit of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015), which expresses the ambition of reducing agricultural emissions while protecting food production, we assess a carbon policy that applies both a carbon tax and a subsidy to producers to manage the tradeoff between food production and mitigation. The policy maintains ruminant production and consumption levels in all regions, but for a much lower global emission reduction of 185 MtCO₂-eq year^?1. This research provides policymakers with a quantitative basis for designing policies that attempt to trade off mitigation effectiveness with producer and consumer welfare.     

Emission inventory on company level: lessons from Russia

Developing a transparent,accurate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsinventory is the first step toward buildingan effective GHG management system. Todate, GHG inventories have been conductedprimarily at national levels. Theinternationally accepted inventorymethodology developed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is oriented to countrywideinventories. The electricity company RAOUESR is the largest single corporateemitter of GHG in the Russian Federation. The company is responsible for about 1/3 ofRussia's CO₂ emissions; RAO's fossil fuelemissions are comparable to the fossil fuelemissions of the United Kingdom. The GHGinventory prepared by RAO is the first suchcorporate emissions inventory undertaken ina non-OECD country. In this article wepresent a detailed independent examinationof the methodology RAO applied for theinventory. We identify the most importantsources of uncertainty and we estimate theuncertainty. The main conclusion of theindependent review is that the methodologyutilized by RAO and the informationsupporting the methodology are reliable andpresent a reasonably accurate company-widepicture of RAO's CO₂ emissions. The shareof other greenhouse gases is negligiblysmall and we did not focus on this fractionof RAO's GHG emissions. As a next step, RAOmay wish to conduct more precisefacility-by-facility inventories in orderto create a robust GHG emission managementsystem.