BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

How Green is Too Green? Public Opinion of What Constitutes Undesirable Algae Levels in Streams1

Abstract: A public opinion survey was carried out in Montana to ascertain if the public identifies a level of benthic (bottom‐attached) river and stream algae that is undesirable for recreation. The survey had two parts; an On‐River survey and a By‐Mail survey. The On‐River survey was conducted via 44 trips randomly scheduled throughout the state during which recreators were interviewed in‐person at the stream. Selection of stream segments and survey dates/times was based on known, statewide recreational use patterns. By‐Mail survey forms were sent to 2,000 individuals randomly selected from Montana’s Centralized Voter File (CVF) available from the Montana Secretary of State. The CVF was current through 2004 and represented over 85% of the state’s eligible voting population. In both surveys, eight randomly ordered photographs depicting varying levels of stream benthic algae were presented, and participants were asked if the algae level shown was desirable or undesirable for recreation. Survey form design, selection of photographs, and pretesting followed acceptable protocols that limited unintentional bias through survey execution. There were 433 returned forms (389 complete) for the By‐Mail survey, while the On‐River survey documented 563 interviews. In both surveys, as benthic algal chlorophyll a (Chl a) levels increased, desirability for recreation decreased. (Other measures of benthic algae biomass are presented as well.) For the public majority, mean benthic Chl a levels ≥200 mg/m² were determined to be undesirable for recreation, whereas mean levels ≤150 mg Chl a/m² were found to be desirable. Error rates were within the survey’s statistical design criteria (≤5%). The largest potential error source was nonresponse in the By‐Mail survey; however, the population represented by nonrespondents would have to exhibit profoundly different perceptions of river and stream algae to meaningfully alter the results. Results support earlier work in the literature suggesting 150 mg Chl a/m² represents a benthic algae nuisance threshold.     

POTENTIALS FOR REUSE OF WASTEWATER IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS1

ABSTRACT There are several possible ways in which wastewater from municipalities may be reclaimed and reused so as to minimize the need for imported water in North Central Texas. The rationale for reuse is enhanced by the fact that new water quality requirements in the Trinity River system will necessitate a very high degree of treatment at municipal sewage plants, just for discharge to surface streams. The largest potential market for municipal effluent is the steam-electric power industry. Within the next decade the generating capacity for electric power in North Central Texas will have to be more than doubled to meet increasing demand. Adequate supplies of condenser cooling water for such expansion will be difficult to obtain and assure. New large power stations might advantageously be located adjacent to municipal wastewater treatment plants, to utilize effluent as make-up water for cooling towers. Experience elsewhere has shown that well-treated wastewater can be used for cooling tower make-up with a minimum of trouble, with a considerable saving in overall cost, and with conservation of pristine water for other uses.     

Population dynamics and the economics of invasive species management: the greenhouse whitefly in California-grown strawberries

In agriculture, relatively few efficacious control measures may be available for an invasive pest. In the case of a new insect pest, insecticide use decisions are affected by regulations associated with its registration, insect population dynamics, and seasonal market price cycles. We assess the costs and benefits of environmental regulations designed to regulate insecticide applications on an invasive species. We construct a bioeconomic model, based on detailed scientific data, of management decisions for a specific invasion: greenhouse whiteflies in California-grown strawberries. The empirical model integrates whitefly population dynamics, the effect of whitefly feeding on strawberry yields, and weekly strawberry price. We use the model to assess the optimality of alternative treatment programs on a simulated greenhouse whitefly population. Our results show that regulations may lead growers to "under-spray" when placed in an economic context, and provide some general lessons about the design of optimal invasive species control policies.     

HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS1

ABSTRACT: The spatial and temporal variability of hydroclimatic elements were investigated in the central and northern Rocky Mountains (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming) during the 1951–1985 period. The three hydroclimatic elements studied were total water-year (October 1-September 30) streamflow (ST), winter (October 1-March 31) accumulated precipitation (PR), and April 1 snowpack (SN). An analysis of 14 virgin watersheds showed wide spatial djfferences in the temporal variability of SN, PR, and ST, and these were found to be caused largely by basin exposure to moist air flows. The more stable (low variability) basins were those exposed to prevailing northerly to westerly flow, while unstable (high variability) basins were exposed to occasional southwesterly to southeasterly moist flow. Snowpack was the better indicator of ST in 11 of the 14 watersheds, explaining 37 to 87 percent of the ST variance. Analysis of the spatial variability, based on all SN and PR data from across the study area, revealed 11 discrete climatic regions. Both SN and PR exhibited coherent regions of stable and unstable temporal variability. The average variability between stable and unstable regions differed by a factor of two, and the differences were best explained by the exposure of the mountain barrier to moist air flows.     

Temporal and spatial variation of RNA content in nymphs of the mayfly, Stenonema femoratum (Say)

Temporal variation of RNA: weight, RNA: protein, RNA: DNA, and protein: DNA ratios in Stenonema femoratum (Say) was assessed by monitoring at the same site in a small midwestern stream over a two-year period. Variation components were estimated using a two-way mixed model analysis of variance with weight class and collection date as main effects. About 30% of the variation in RNA concentration was within-cell variation associated with differences among individuals and analytical error. Temporal variation accounted for about 50% of the total variability in RNA concentration data. RNA: weight had 11% and RNA: protein had 17% variation attributed to weight class effects indicating that these ratios were dependent on the size of the mayfly. RNA: DNA ratios were not influenced by mayfly weight, suggesting that this ratio would be the most appropriate for comparing populations based on means of mixed individual sizes. Comparison of mean RNA: DNA ratios among collection dates yielded significant increases in the ratio during late fall in two consecutive years. Spatial variations in RNA: DNA ratios of S. femoratum collected from sites of similar habitats were not significantly different. These data encourage the future development of RNA concentration as an in situ biochemical indicator of growth rate and possibly of stress related effects on growth rate.     

Influence of sediment on the fate and toxicity of a polyethoxylated tallowamine surfactant system (MON 0818) in aquatic microcosms

The fate and toxicity of a polyethoxylated tallowamine (POEA) surfactant system, MON 0818, was evaluated in water-sediment microcosms during a 4-d laboratory study. A surfactant solution of 8 mg l(-1) nominal concentration was added to each of nine 72-l aquaria with or without a 3-cm layer of one of two natural sediments (total organic carbon (TOC) 1.5% or 3.0%). Control well water was added to each of nine additional 72-l aquaria with or without sediment. Water samples were collected from the microcosms after 2, 6, 24, 48, 72, and 96 h of aging to conduct 48-h toxicity tests with Daphnia magna and to determine surfactant concentrations. Elevated mortality of D. magna (43-83%) was observed in overlying water sampled from water-only microcosms throughout the 96-h aging period, whereas elevated mortality (23-97%) was only observed in overlying water sampled from water-sediment microcosms during the first 24h of aging. Measured concentrations of MON 0818 in water-only microcosms remained relatively constant (4-6 mg l(-1)) during the 96-h period, whereas the concentrations in overlying water from microcosms containing either of the two types of sediment dissipated rapidly, with half-lives of 13 h in the 3.0% TOC sediment and 18 h in the 1.5% TOC sediment. Both toxicity and the concentration of MON 0818 in overlying water decreased more rapidly in microcosms containing sediment with the higher percent TOC and clay and with a higher microbial biomass. Mortality of D. magna was significantly correlated with surfactant concentrations in the overlying water. These results indicate that the toxicity of the POEA surfactant in water rapidly declines in the presence of sediment due to a reduction in the surfactant concentration in the overlying water above the sediment.     

A mass budget of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in San Francisco Bay, CA

A mass budget of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in San Francisco Bay is developed as a first step towards understanding the local sources and transport processes controlling PBDE fate in a highly urbanized estuary. Extensive monitoring of PBDEs in estuarine water and sediment, freshwater tributaries, air, and wastewater effluents and sludges were integrated with a mass budget model to provide a synthetic view of these emerging contaminants. The Bay inventories of BDE 47 and BDE 209 in 2006 were estimated to be 33+/-3 kg and 153+/-45 kg, respectively. Empirically derived estimates of annual inputs of BDE 47 and BDE 209 from all quantifiable external sources ranged from 11 to 28 kg/y and 22 to 24 kg/y, respectively. BDE 47 loads were dominated by wastewater while runoff from local tributaries represented the largest contributor to BDE 209 loads. Model results suggest the Bay PBDE inventory is highly sensitive to changes in external loads, with degradation and outflow being the major processes governing PBDE fate. The mass budget presented provides a framework for integrating future monitoring and modeling efforts.