Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present. These are mainly developing countries and countries in transition, the so-called non-Annex I countries of the UNFCCC. However, intensification of agricultural production systems is currently closely linked to high emissions of greenhouse gases notably nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄). In this paper the relations between population growth, agricultural development and emissions of N₂O and CH₄ were assessed for 10 non-Annex I countries, viz. China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We combined FAO data on agricultural production levels, CENSUS data on population statistics and EDGAR data on N₂O and CH₄ emissions. The projected trends in agricultural production indicate that emissions of N₂O and CH₄ are expected to increase rapidly in the coming years and will level off from 2040 onwards. The results confirm the positive relation between population increase and increased emissions from agricultural activities for most countries. However, for some countries (South Africa, China and Mexico) this relation was weak or absent. Although numerous factors (e.g. changes in international trade) may have scattered the relation and we were unable to explain this decoupling, it suggests that population growth can be possible without additional emissions. The variation between the different countries and farming systems is however large and mitigation measures at farm-level should be tailored to the wide diversity in environmental conditions, regional customs and farming systems.