The reproductive behavior and energetics of male gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) breeding on a land-fast ice substrate

The reproductive behavior of male gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) breeding on land-fast ice at Amet Island, Nova Scotia, was studied. Data on energy expenditure (rate of mass loss over time) were collected. The average time budget of males at Amet Island was comparable to that of land-breeding males. The behavior of males showed seasonal changes, with a decrease in the proportion of time spent in the water and an increase in agonistic behavior during the peak mating period. The estimated amount of body mass lost over the season ranged between 25.6 and 77.1 kg, and the estimated percent of initial body mass lost ranged between 7.7 and 26.5% (n=10). The maximum number of observed copulations for an individual male was nine. Only 15 out of 42 males observed during 1992 and 1993 were seen copulating. The number of observed copulations per male was strongly correlated with success in remaining close to, or attending, females (r=0.91, P<0.001, n=42). The mean duration of attendance was 4.5 ± 5.54 days (n=42). Large size was not an important factor in determining attendance success, but reproductive effort (the estimated proportion of body mass lost over the season) and success in agonistic interactions with other males were both correlated with male success.     

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters.

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks.     

Evaluation of radioxenon releases in Australia using atmospheric dispersion modelling tools

The origin of a series of atmospheric radioxenon events detected at the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) International Monitoring System site in Melbourne, Australia, between November 2008 and February 2009 was investigated. Backward tracking analyses indicated that the events were consistent with releases associated with hot commission testing of the Australian Nuclear Science Technology Organisation (ANSTO) radiopharmaceutical production facility in Sydney, Australia. Forward dispersion analyses were used to estimate release magnitudes and transport times. The estimated ¹³³Xe release magnitude of the largest event (between 0.2 and 34 TBq over a 2 d window), was in close agreement with the stack emission releases estimated by the facility for this time period (between 0.5 and 2 TBq). Modelling of irradiation conditions and theoretical radioxenon emission rates were undertaken and provided further evidence that the Melbourne detections originated from this radiopharmaceutical production facility. These findings do not have public health implications. This is the first comprehensive study of atmospheric radioxenon measurements and releases in Australia.     

Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?

Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.     

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989-2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.     

Development of an energy discriminate CR-39(®) nuclear track etch dosimeter for Radon-220 gas measurements

An energy discriminate CR-39^® nuclear track etch dosimeter for use in a ²²⁰Rn and ²²²Rn gas monitor has been developed and experimentally assessed. It utilises a thin film of Mylar^® C to attenuate the alpha particle energies to allow only the damage tracks created by the 8.785 MeV alpha particles emitted from ²¹²Po of the ²³²Th decay chain to be registered in the CR-39^® plaque, allowing for the direct measurement of ²²⁰Rn gas concentrations. The dosimeter was developed through a combination of experimental investigations and theoretical simulations using the Monte Carlo ion transport modelling program Stopping and Range of Ions in Materials (SRIM 2008). A film thickness of 54 μm has been shown to attenuate all alpha energies less then 7.7 MeV.     

Method design and validation for the determination of uranium levels in human urine using high-resolution alpha spectrometry

Quantification of uranium in human urine is a valuable technique for assessing occupational and public exposure to uranium. A reliable method has been developed and validated in the ARPANSA Radiochemistry Laboratory by means of standard radiochemical separation and purification techniques and measurement using high-resolution alpha spectrometry. This method can be used to evaluate the levels of naturally occurring 234U, 235U and 238U in urine. Method design and validation is the process of defining an analytical requirement, and then confirming that the method under consideration has performance capabilities consistent with what the application requires. The method was designed to measure levels down to 2 mBq/day of total uranium, corresponding to approximately 1/100th of the annual committed effective dose of 20 mSv. Validation tests were developed to assess selectivity, accuracy, recovery and quantification of uncertainty. The radiochemical recovery of this method was measured using (232)U tracer. The typical minimum detectable concentration for total uranium for 24-h urine samples is approximately 0.6 mBq/day or 0.019 microg/day.     

Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity

How best to predict the effects of perturbations to ecological communities has been a long-standing goal for both applied and basic ecology. This quest has recently been revived by new empirical data, new analysis methods, and increased computing speed, with the promise that ecologically important insights may be obtainable from a limited knowledge of community interactions. We use empirically based and simulated networks of varying size and connectance to assess two limitations to predicting perturbation responses in multispecies communities: (1) the inaccuracy by which species interaction strengths are empirically quantified and (2) the indeterminacy of species responses due to indirect effects associated with network size and structure. We find that even modest levels of species richness and connectance (-25 pairwise interactions) impose high requirements for interaction strength estimates because system indeterminacy rapidly overwhelms predictive insights. Nevertheless, even poorly estimated interaction strengths provide greater average predictive certainty than an approach that uses only the sign of each interaction. Our simulations provide guidance in dealing with the trade-offs involved in maximizing the utility of network approaches for predicting dynamics in multispecies communities.