Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

Contaminant exposure in terrestrial vertebrates

Here we review mechanisms and factors influencing contaminant exposure among terrestrial vertebrate wildlife. There exists a complex mixture of biotic and abiotic factors that dictate potential for contaminant exposure among terrestrial and semi-terrestrial vertebrates. Chemical fate and transport in the environment determine contaminant bioaccessibility. Species-specific natural history characteristics and behavioral traits then play significant roles in the likelihood that exposure pathways, from source to receptor, are complete. Detailed knowledge of natural history traits of receptors considered in conjunction with the knowledge of contaminant behavior and distribution on a site are critical when assessing and quantifying exposure. We review limitations in our understanding of elements of exposure and the unique aspects of exposure associated with terrestrial and semi-terrestrial taxa. We provide insight on taxa-specific traits that contribute, or limit exposure to, transport phenomenon that influence exposure throughout terrestrial systems, novel contaminants, bioavailability, exposure data analysis, and uncertainty associated with exposure in wildlife risk assessments. Lastly, we identify areas related to exposure among terrestrial and semi-terrestrial organisms that warrant additional research.     

The ecological basis of boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis Boheman) management

The boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis Boheman), generally considered to be native to Mexico or Central America, spread into the southern United States of America in the late 1800s and seriously threatened the cotton industry. As there were no effective alternatives, pest control specialists studied the insect's ecology and advocated cultural practices that would disrupt its environment and maximize the benefits of natural biological and environmental controls. An ecologically orientated pest management scheme founded on cultural practices emerged well before suitable chemical control technology became available and allowed farmers to live with the weevil problem.Despite the ingenuity of the early management scheme, it frequently did not provide satisfactory boll weevil control gauged by present standards. Control of the pest thus shifted largely from an ecological to a chemical approach as effective synthetic organic insecticides became available after World War II. The chemical approach was successful for a number of years, but problems of insecticide-resistant strains of pests, secondary pest outbreaks, environmental quality, and increased costs of the insecticides have forced pest control specialists to re-emphasize the nonchemical techniques used widely against the boll weevil before World War II and to revive the ecological approach to weevil management.This article examines boll weevil ecology as related to management of the insect and reviews the status and prospects of ecologically-based weevil management techniques in the United States.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

The geography of conflict between elk and agricultural values in the Cypress Hills, Canada

Complex ecological issues like depredation and its management are determined by multiple factors acting at more than one scale and are interlinked with complex human social and economic behaviour. Depredation by wild herbivores can be a major obstacle to agricultural community support for wildlife conservation. For three decades, crop and fence damage, competition with livestock for native rangeland and tame pasture, and depredation of stored feed by elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) have been the cause of conflict with agricultural producers in the Cypress Hills, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Tolerance of elk presence on private lands is low because few benefits accrue to private landowners; rather they largely perceive elk as a public resource produced at their expense. Government management actions have focused on abatement inputs (e.g., population reduction; fencing) and compensation, but incentives to alter land use patterns (crop choice and location) in response to damages have not been considered. Nor has there been information on spatial structure of the elk population that would allow targeted management actions instead of attempting to manage the entire population. In this study we analysed the spatial structure of the Cypress Hills elk population, the distribution of the elk harvest in relation to agricultural conflicts, developed models of the spatial patterns of conflict fields, and evaluated compensation patterns for damage by wild herbivores. We propose modifications to current abatement and compensation programs and discuss alternative approaches involving changes to agricultural land use patterns that may reduce the intensity of conflicts with elk, and increase the acceptance capacity of landowners.     

Predicting Pressure Loss for Pulse Jet Filters

The analysis of pressure loss characteristics for pulse jet filters suggests that the relationship between dust adhesion to the fabric and the opposing force generated by pulse jet action plays a major role in dust removal. Hence, fabric cleanability is examined in terms of the adhesion-cohesion forces bonding the dust to the fabric vs. the intensity and frequency of the dust dislodgement forces produced by the high energy air pulses. The effect of jet size and location, jet air volume, and the intensity (pressure) and duration of the jet pulses is related to operating pressure loss.

The mechanics of energy transfer from the jet pulse to the dustladen fabric are explored in terms of jet pressure, solenoid valve action, the ratio of delivered pulse air volume to bag (tube) volume, and the elastic and flex properties of the felt bags. Effective and actual fabric dust holdings before and after cleaning are discussed with respect to steady-state dust deposition and removal rates, and operating pressure losses. Finally, predictive equations are proposed for estimating pressure loss over a broad range of design and operating parameters.     

Acid Particles and the Tracheobronchial Region of the Respiratory System—An “Irritation-Signaling” Model for Possible Health Effects

This paper explores some detailed mechanistic hypotheses for the possible action of acid particles on the tracheobronchial region of the human respiratory system. Because of the buffering capacity and volume of mucus produced per day it appears doubtful that ordinary ambient exposures to acid particles could markedly change the overall pH of tracheobronchial mucus considered as a whole. However it is possible that individual acidic particles could contain enough acid to deliver localized “irritant signals” that could be the triggers for enhanced mucus secretion and cell division in sensitive portions of the bronchial tree, and thereby contribute to the processes involved in chronic bronchitis.

Depending on the exact pH depression required for a “signal” to be perceived by the tracheobronchial epithelium, the acid content of the incoming particles per unit weight, and the effect of neutralization by ammonia in the upper respiratory tract, the minimum size of an acidic particle required to deliver a perceptible signal might range from about 0.4 to 0.7 microns for portions of the epithelium that are frequently swept by 4-micron mucus droplets. (For unprotected epithelium, however, it is conceivable that the minimum effective size for acid particles could be less.) Since particle number per unit weight declines dramatically with increasing particle size, the most potent fraction of particles in terms of signals delivered per μg/m³is likely to be just above the minimum size that is needed to produce an effective signal. The model developed here makes predictions of the relative potency of particles of different size and acid delivery capacity that could be tested in both experimental animal systems and human epidemiological studies.     

Statistical Simulation to Estimate Uncertain Behavioral Parameters of Hybrid Energy-Economy Models

In energy-economy modeling, new hybrid models attempt to combine the technological explicitness of bottom-up models with the macroeconomic feedbacks and statistically estimated behavioral parameters of top-down models. However, statistical estimation of behavioral parameters (portraying firm and household technology choices) with such models is challenged by the number of uncertain variables and the lack of historical data on technologies in terms of capital costs, operating costs, and market shares. Multiple combinations of parameter values might equally explain past technology choices. This paper reports on the application of a Bayesian statistical simulation approach for estimating the most likely values for these key behavioral parameters in order to best explain past technology choices and then simulate policies to influence future technology choices. The method included (1) data collection of key technology market shares, capital costs, and operating costs over the past; (2) backcasting a hybrid energy-economy model over a historical time period; and (3) the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical simulation using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm as a tool for estimating distributions for key parameters in the model. The results provide a means of indicating the uncertainty bounds around key behavioral parameters when generating forecasts of the effect of certain policies. However, the results also indicate that this approach may have limited applicability, given that future available technologies may differ substantially from past technologies and that it is difficult to separate the effects of parameter uncertainty from model structure uncertainty.