The study of age influence on human bone lead metabolism by using a simplified model and X-ray fluorescence data

Long term lead metabolism in the human body has never been fully understood due to the lack of human data in this area. The technological improvement of bone lead measurement systems has made bone lead data of substantial populations available. In this study, a set of X-ray fluorescence bone lead data was used to test Leggett's lead metabolism model (R. W. Leggett, Environ. Health Perspect., 1993a, 101, 598-616), especially the model of metabolism in bone. The data set includes the bone lead concentration of 539 occupationally exposed workers, of whom 327 were measured twice in five years. The bone lead concentrations of both cortical bone (tibia) and trabecular bone (calcaneus) were obtained by Cd-109 gamma-ray induced XRF measurement. The histories of blood lead concentration for these workers were used to regulate the input file of the model. The results show that the bone lead concentrations predicted by Leggett's model greatly underestimate the measured values, especially for older workers. This data set was then organized into five age groups. A new simplified model was applied to estimate the lead transfer rates between blood and lead compartments for these age groups. The original transfer rates and the new transfer rates are compared, and the differences are discussed. When the transfer rates derived from measured bone lead data were put into the input file of the model to replace the existing parameters, the predicted values were much closer to the measured values for both cortical bone and trabecular bone.     

MATERNAL SERUM ALPHA-FETOPROTEIN SCREENING FOR OPEN NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN TWIN PREGNANCIES

Data on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 13–24 weeks' gestation in 46 twin pregnancies with open neural tube defects (22 with anencephaly, 24 with open spina bifida) and 169 unaffected twins were used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates associated with different cut-off levels. Using the conventional cut-off level of 2·5 multiples of the median (MoM) for unaffected singleton pregnancies of the same gestation and laboratory, the detection rate in twins was 99 per cent for anencephaly and 89 per cent for open spina bifida, with a false-positive rate of 30 per cent. Using a 5·0 MoM cut-off level to maintain a similar false-positive rate to that found among singleton pregnancies at 16–18 weeks' gestation (about 3 per cent), the detection rate was 83 per cent for anencephaly and 39 per cent for open spina bifida. Estimates are provided of the odds of having an affected twin pregnancy given a positive AFP result as well as the odds for individual women with a raised AFP level.     

The European Union Solidarity Fund: an assessment of its recent reforms

After extensive flooding in 2002, the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) was created as an ex post loss-financing vehicle for EU member states and candidate countries in the case of disasters that exceed the government’s resources to cope. The EUSF is viewed as a valuable instrument for pooling risk among countries in Europe and potentially as a model for financing loss and damage from climate change in vulnerable countries worldwide. This paper assesses its future prospects taking account of reforms adopted in 2014. Our analysis is based on three recognized aims of the Solidarity Fund: its promotion of solidarity with those countries having the least capacity to cope with major disasters; its contribution to proactive disaster risk reduction and management (climate adaptation); and its robustness with regard to its risk of depletion (stress testing). Using a simulation approach for future disasters, we conclude that the reformed EUSF’s risk of depletion, although it is reasonably robust to more frequent disasters, could be reduced by increasing member state contributions and/or engaging in risk transfer. The European Commission has taken important steps in linking the fund to proactive risk reduction; yet, by changing its budgeting practices, the commission could be more proactive in encouraging risk management in member states. In its current form, the EUSF does not embed needs-based solidarity. Lower-income “new” member states have received disproportionately less compensation in terms of eligible losses, although on average, they have received more disaster aid than what they contribute to the fund. Solidarity could be enhanced by changing the rules for disbursing aid. After briefly describing alternative risk-pooling models in the Caribbean, Africa, and Europe, we suggest how design features of the EUSF as compared to other regional risk pools can inform discussions on the Warsaw International Loss and Damage Mechanism.     

DNA Heat Treatment for Improving qPCR Analysis of Human Adenovirus in Wastewater

PCR inhibitory substances in complex sample matrices can cause false negatives or under-estimation of target concentration. This study assessed DNA heat treatment for reducing inhibition during qPCR analysis of human adenovirus (HAdV) in wastewater samples. Inhibition was reduced by heat treating DNA, where mean HAdV concentration was increased by 0.71 log₁₀ GC/L (and up to 3.04 log₁₀ GC/L in one case), and replicate variability and false negatives were reduced. DNA heat treatment should be further investigated for improving reliability of HAdV concentration estimates in water, which can support more accurate assessment of health risks associated with viral pathogen exposure.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade

Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed. In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water, land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption. We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better information to meat consumers.

Multiscale satellite and spatial information and analysis framework in support of a large-area forest monitoring and inventory update

Many countries undertake a national forest inventory to enable statistically valid monitoring in support of national and international reporting of forest conditions and change. Canada’s National Forest Inventory (NFI) program is designed to operate on a 10-year remeasurement cycle, with an interim report produced at the 5-year mid-point. The NFI is a sample-based inventory, with approximately 18,850 2 ×2-km photo plots across the country, distributed on a 20×20-km grid of sample points; these photo plots are the primary data source for the NFI. Capacity to provide annual monitoring information is required to keep policy and decision makers apprised of current forest conditions. In this study, we implemented a multistage monitoring framework and used a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) change product to successfully identify 78% of the changes in forest cover area that were captured with a Landsat change detection approach. Of the NFI photo plots that were identified by both the Landsat and MODIS approaches as having changes in forest cover, the proportion of change area within the plots was similar (R ²?=?0.78). Approximately 70% of the Landsat-derived change events occupied less than 40% of a single MODIS pixel, and more than 90% of the change events of this size were successfully detected with the MODIS product. Finally, MODIS estimates of the proportion of forest cover change at the NFI photo plot level were comparable to change estimates for the ecoregions as a whole (R ²?=?0.95). High-temporal, low-spatial resolution imagery such as MODIS, in combination with other remotely sensed data sources, can provide information on disturbance events within a national forest inventory remeasurement cycle, thereby satisfying the interim information needs of policy and decision makers as well as the requirements of national and international reporting commitments.