Development of a Computer Workstation for Famine Early Warning and Food Security

Beginning in 1990, the University of Arizona, Arizona Remote Sensing Center (ARSC) has been involved in a collaborative effort with the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Remote Sensing Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations in designing and developing an integrated computer workstation for famine early warning. The goal of the project is to provide food security analysts with a set of computer tools to manage a very large and diverse set of data for predicting the onset of food security emergencies for every country on Earth. The initial stage of the project involved the conceptual definition of system elements and the development of overall system architecture. We are now developing an open, flexible, and portable system designed to significantly assist the work of the analysts. System architecture provides a task-specific and user-friendly graphic user interface (GUI) within a Windows environment that will link image processing, geographic information system (GIS), spreadsheet, text, and graphics software packages into a single operational environment. A relational database management system (RDBMS) is serving as the back-end of the workstation to facilitate data storage and retrieval and as a means to preserve analysis methodologies.     

Recreational Portage Trails as Corridors Facilitating Non-Native Plant Invasions of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (U.S.A.)

Abstract:  Wilderness areas are protected and valued in part for recreation; recreational use, however, can negatively impact these areas. In particular, recreational use can facilitate transport of non-native propagules and create open sites for establishment of non-native species. We examined the role of recreational portage trails in the introduction and establishment of non-native plants into the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness of northern Minnesota (U.S.A.). On 20 portages, we sampled non-native plant richness and cover at four distances (0, 10, 25, and 50 m) from trails. Non-native richness and cover were not related to distance from wilderness entry point. Non-native richness and cover were, however, negatively related to distance from trails. All six non-native species we observed were either directly on or within 1 m of trails. These results suggest that recreational trails act as corridors facilitating invasions of non-native plants into wilderness areas. It remains unclear, however, whether these effects are caused by dispersal of propagules, creation of bare ground, or changes in the native plant community.     

Chilean Blue Whales as a Case Study to Illustrate Methods to Estimate Abundance and Evaluate Conservation Status of Rare Species

Abstract: Often abundance of rare species cannot be estimated with conventional design‐based methods, so we illustrate with a population of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) a spatial model‐based method to estimate abundance. We analyzed data from line‐transect surveys of blue whales off the coast of Chile, where the population was hunted to low levels. Field protocols allowed deviation from planned track lines to collect identification photographs and tissue samples for genetic analyses, which resulted in an ad hoc sampling design with increased effort in areas of higher densities. Thus, we used spatial modeling methods to estimate abundance. Spatial models are increasingly being used to analyze data from surveys of marine, aquatic, and terrestrial species, but estimation of uncertainty from such models is often problematic. We developed a new, broadly applicable variance estimator that showed there were likely 303 whales (95% CI 176–625) in the study area. The survey did not span the whales' entire range, so this is a minimum estimate. We estimated current minimum abundance relative to pre‐exploitation abundance (i.e., status) with a population dynamics model that incorporated our minimum abundance estimate, likely population growth rates from a meta‐analysis of rates of increase in large baleen whales, and two alternative assumptions about historic catches. From this model, we estimated that the population was at a minimum of 9.5% (95% CI 4.9–18.0%) of pre‐exploitation levels in 1998 under one catch assumption and 7.2% (CI 3.7–13.7%) of pre‐exploitation levels under the other. Thus, although Chilean blue whales are probably still at a small fraction of pre‐exploitation abundance, even these minimum abundance estimates demonstrate that their status is better than that of Antarctic blue whales, which are still <1% of pre‐exploitation population size. We anticipate our methods will be broadly applicable in aquatic and terrestrial surveys for rarely encountered species, especially when the surveys are intended to maximize encounter rates and estimate abundance.     

Factors Mediating Co‐Occurrence of an Economically Valuable Introduced Fish and Its Native Frog Prey

Habitat characteristics mediate predator–prey coexistence in many ecological systems but are seldom considered in species introductions. When economically important introduced predators are stocked despite known negative impacts on native species, understanding the role of refuges, landscape configurations, and community interactions can inform habitat management plans. We measured these factors in basins with introduced trout (Salmonidae) and the Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) to determine, which are responsible for observed patterns of co‐occurrence of this economically important predator and its native prey. Large, vegetated shallows were strongly correlated to co‐occurrence, and R. cascadae larvae occur in shallower water when fish are present, presumably to escape predation. The number of nearby breeding sites of R. cascadae was also correlated to co‐occurrence, but only when the western toad (Anaxyrus boreas) was present. Because A. boreas larvae are unpalatable to fish and resemble R. cascadae, they may provide protection from trout via Batesian mimicry. Although rescue‐effect dispersal from nearby populations may maintain co‐occurrence, within‐lake factors proved more important for predicting co‐occurrence. Learning which factors allow co‐occurrence between economically important introduced species and their native prey enables managers to make better‐informed stocking decisions. Factores que Median la Co‐Ocurrencia de un Pez Introducido con Valor Económico y su Presa, una Rana Nativa     

Long-Term Effects of Hurricane Andrew: Revisiting Mental Health Indicators

Two population-based surveys of South Dade County, Florida, were conducted after Hurricane Andrew to compare hurricane-related symptoms of mental distress and describe the impact of mental health outreach teams. Households were selected by three-stage cluster sampling and findings from the two surveys, 13 months apart, were compared. Response rates were 75 per cent and 84 per cent. The prevalence of symptoms of mental distress decreased over time. However, in the households contacted by the teams (25 per cent of sample), the prevalence of symptoms (50 per cent) did not differ from households not contacted (43 per cent). Households contacted by teams that reported symptoms were just as likely to have been referred for help by the teams (72 per cent) as those without symptoms (68 per cent). Households reporting symptoms were equally likely to get counselling regardless of whether the teams visited. Mental health teams had no significant impact on mental health symptoms or the use of mental health services. Alternative approaches to mental health outreach teams need to be explored.     

Demography, Hunting Ecology, and Pathogen Exposure of Domestic Dogs in the Isoso of Bolivia

Abstract:  Disease is increasingly recognized as a threat to the conservation of wildlife, and in many cases the source of disease outbreaks in wild carnivores is the domestic dog. For disease to spill over from a domestic to a wild population, three conditions must be satisfied: susceptibility of the wild species, presence of the disease agent in the domestic population, and contact between the two populations of interest. We investigated the potential for disease spillover from the domestic dog population to the wild carnivore population in the Isoso of Bolivia, an area of tropical dry forest contiguous with a national park. Using questionnaires and discussions with residents, we gathered data on the demography of dogs in the Isoso, including adult and neonatal mortality, litter size, and hunting frequency. We analyzed a large data set containing self-recorded information on hunting in various communities of the Isoso to determine the extent of dog participation in hunting and the duration of hunting trips. Finally, we took blood samples from dogs in the Isoso for a serosurvey of common canine pathogens. More than 95% of dogs had positive titers to canine distemper virus and canine parvovirus. There was also a high seroprevalence in dogs for other pathogens, a high population turnover of dogs (which may allow diseases to be maintained endemically), and frequent opportunities for contact between domestic and wild carnivores. Based on our results and the susceptibility of wild species previously reported in the literature, domestic dogs represent a disease risk for wildlife in the Bolivian Isoso.     

Evaluation of Long-term Community Recovery from Hurricane Andrew: Sources of Assistance Received by Population Sub-groups

Two three-stage cluster surveys were conducted in South Dade County, Florida, 14 months apart, to assess recovery following Hurricane Andrew. Response rates were 75 per cent and 84 per cent. Sources of assistance used in recovery from Hurricane Andrew differed according to race, per capita income, ethnicity, and education. Reports of improved living situation post-hurricane were not associated with receiving relief assistance, but reports of a worse situation were associated with loss of income, being exploited, or job loss. The number of households reporting problems with crime and community violence doubled between the two surveys. Disaster relief efforts had less impact on subjective long-term recovery than did job or income loss or housing repair difficulties. Existing sources of assistance were used more often than specific post-hurricane relief resources. The demographic make-up of a community may determine which are the most effective means to inform them after a disaster and what sources of assistance may be useful.