Statistical analyses of regional surface water quality in southeastern Ontario

Historical records from Ontario's Provincial Water Quality Monitoring Network (PWQMN) for rivers and streams were analyzed to assess the feasibility of mapping regional water quality patterns in southeastern Ontario which spans two major geologic zones, the Precambrian Shield and the St. Lawrence Lowlands, thus serving as a paradigm for much of Ontario. Despite biases toward the populated Lowlands and associated pollution problems, general spatial trends are evident via the analysis of intervariable relations, individual parameter maps and multivariate analysis. Using a robust algorithm designed to identify outliers and abstract underlying bivariate relations, a linear regional hardness-alkalinity relation was derived, where most anomalies proved to be mine drainage impacted sites. Regionally, multivariate ordination reveals that central tendencies of common indicators of ionic strength and nutrient richness correlate positively and that site clusters broadly reflect the transition from oligotrophic Shield waters to eutrophic conditions of heavily agricultural Lowland streams. Results suggest that on the Shield more precisely delineated aquatic regions may be realized by applying GIS to integrate river and synoptic lake survey data. Further synthesis with bedrock and surficial geology, physiography, pedology and other temporally invariant spatial attributes should yield regional patterns of background quality from which locally attainable water objectives might be defined. Additional synoptic surveys of sedimentary Lowland streams may be required as most available sites relflect anthropogenic pollution.     

Robust graphical methods for diagnosing trend in irregularly spaced water quality time series

Graphical methods can play an important role in the reliable assessment of trends in typically ill behaved river quality data series both as diagnostic tools and as visual corroborative evidence when assumptions required for formal statistical tests are not met. Robust, graphically-oriented trend diagnosis procedures are presented for data series characterized by nonnormal populations, uneven time spacing, nonmonotonic trend and other factors which can create serious problems for standard parametric time series methods. Cleveland's robust locally weighted regression (RLWR) developed for investigating nonlinearity in x-y scatterplots is adapted as a robust/resistant smoothing filter for the analysis of irregular time series comprising quantitative observations. Low powered RLWR trend lines reveal temporally local phenomena, e.g. abrupt jumps (often associated with point source impacts) and periodicities, while higher powered RLWR yields smooth lines characterizing medium and longer term trends. Simple variants of Tukey smoothing concepts are developed for series with censored observations. Applications to Ontario river quality series reveal that graphical evidence is frequently sufficient to obviate the need for formal trend testing. The methods are generally applicable to most time series.     

Geological CO2 Storage as a Climate Change Mitigation Option

Carbon dioxide (CO₂₎ capture and storage is increasingly being considered as an important climate change mitigation option. This paper explores provisions for including geological CO₂ storage in climate policy. The storage capacity of Norway's Continental Shelf is alone sufficient to store a large share of European CO₂ emissions for many decades. If CO₂ is injected into oil reservoirs there is an additional benefit in terms of enhanced oil recovery. However, there are significant technical and economic challenges, including the large investment in infrastructure required, with related economies of scale properties. Thus CO₂ capture, transportation and storage projects are likely to be more economically attractive if developed on a large scale, which could mean involving two or more nations. An additional challenge is the risk of future leakages from storage sites, where the government must take on a major responsibility. In institutional and policy terms, important challenges are the unsettled status of geological CO₂ storage as a policy measure in the Kyoto Protocol, lack of relevant reporting and verification procedures, and lack of decisions on how the option should be linked to the flexibility mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol. In terms of competitiveness with expected prices for CO₂ permits under Kyoto Protocol trading, the relatively high costs per tonne of CO₂ stored means that geological CO₂ storage is primarily of interest where enhanced oil recovery is possible. These shortcomings and uncertainties mean that companies and governments today only have weak incentives to venture into geological CO₂ storage.     

Urinary 8-oxo-7, 8-dihydro-2′-deoxyguanosine concentrations after frying of bacon,a pilot study

Cooking fumes contain compounds that may give rise to oxidative stress and mutations when inhaled. The aim of this study was to evaluate if cooking fumes from frying of bacon induce oxidative stress by measurement of urinary 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine, a marker of oxidatively damaged DNA. Three non-smoking women fried bacon for 3 h. Urine samples were taken as early morning void at the same time on four days; the morning before frying, the morning after first frying, the morning after three days of frying and one week after first urine sample. 8-Oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine, 1-hydroxypyrene and 2-hydroxyphenanthrene, metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, were measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry/mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). 8-Oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine correlated weakly with concentrations of 1-hydroxypyrene (r = 0.31, p = 0.042), but it did not correlate with 2-hydroxyphenanthrene (r = ?0.074; p = 0.64). Average urinary 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine concentrations increased from the day before frying (16.3 ± 4.2 nmol/L) to the third day of frying (26.2 ± 10.2 nmol/L), although not statistically significantly. Our pilot study shows that frying of bacon may result in increased oxidative stress which further emphasises the possible carcinogenic potential of cooking fumes.     

Temporal concentration changes of DEET,TCEP, terbutryn,and nonylphenols in freshwater streams of Hesse,Germany: possible influence of mandatory regulations and voluntary environmental agreements

Background, aim, and scope  

The present study focuses on the temporal concentration changes of four common organic pollutants in small freshwater streams of Hesse, Germany. The substances (tris(2-chloroethyl)phosphate (TCEP), the technical isomer mixture of 4-nonylphenol (NP), 2-(t-butylamino)-4-(ethylamino)-6-(methylthio)-s-triazine (terbutryn), and N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET)) are subject to differing regulations. Whereas the use of NP and the related nonylphenolethoxylates (NPEOs) are almost completely banned under EU directive 2003/53/EC, the herbicide terbutryn is only restricted for use as a herbicide in the majority of member states of the European Union (EU). In contrast, TCEP and DEET are not regulated by legislation, but have been replaced in some products through consumer pressure. The impact of regulation on the environmental concentrations of these pollutants is discussed.     

Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.     

Sustainability Assessment for Agriculture Scenarios in Europe’s Mountain Areas: Lessons from Six Study Areas

Sustainability assessment (SA) is a holistic and long-range strategic instrument capable of assisting policy-making in electing, and deciding upon, future development priorities. The outcomes of an SA process become more relevant and strengthened when conducted with multi-stakeholder engagement, which provides for multiple dialogues and perspectives. This was the object of research of the SA team in the context of BioScene (Scenarios for Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation with Declining Agriculture Use in Mountain Areas in Europe), a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union 5th Framework Program, which aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe, using three distinct methodological streams: the ecological, the socio-economic, and the SA approaches. The SA approach drew on the previous two to assess the importance for biodiversity management of different scenarios of agri-environmental change and rural policy in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), develop causal chains, include stakeholder views, and identify potential contributions for, or conflicts with, sustainability. This article tells how SA was used, what sustainability meant in each study area through different objectives of sustainability considered, discusses the methods used in SA, and the benefits arising. The SA was conducted by a team independent of any study area, who developed and oversaw the application of the SA methodology, assisting national teams, and developing a cross-country understanding of the sustainability of proposed scenarios in the different geographical and social contexts, and their implications for policy-making. Finally, it reflects on the persistent challenges of interdisciplinary research, compounded by multi-cultural teams, and concludes on the BioScene’s lessons for the further development and application of SA.

Constraints to Watershed Planning: Group Structure and Process1

Floress, Kristin, Jean C. Mangun, Mae A. Davenport, and Karl W.J. Williard, 2009. Constraints to Watershed Planning: Group Structure and Process. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1352‐1360. Abstract: The roles that agencies and other partners play in collaborative watershed management are not always clearly identified. Key factors contributing to group‐level outcomes in watershed groups include both structural and procedural elements. Structural elements include membership systems, project partners, and funding, while procedural elements include leadership, shared vision, and mission development. The current research reports on a case study conducted with a Midwestern watershed group that received Clean Water Act Section 319 funds to undertake a watershed planning process. Data come from focus groups, interviews, public comments, and meeting observation, and were analyzed using grounded theory. Findings of this study indicate that homogenous skill set, discord over group and partner roles, and failed problem identification contributed to the organizational inertia experienced by the watershed group. Implications of this research for groups receiving 319 funds are provided.