Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire‐prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland–urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.     

Simulation of the Effect of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Fire Regimes on the Population Viability of a Banksia Species

Populations of plants that rely on seeds for recovery from disturbance by fire (obligate seeders) are sensitive to regimes of frequent fire. Obligate seeders are prominent in fire-prone heathlands of southern Australia and South Africa. Population extinction may occur if there are successive fires during a plant's juvenile period. Research on the population biology of obligate seeders has influenced the management of fire in these heath and shrublands, but work on the effects of the spatial variability of fires is lacking. We hypothesize that extinction maybe avoided under an adverse fire frequency if fires are patchy. We present a model that simulates the effects of spatial and temporal variations in fire regimes on the viability of a plant population in a grid landscape. Seedling establishment, maturation, senescence, and seed dispersal determine the presence or absence of plants in each cell. We used values typical of serotinous Banksia species to estimate probability of extinction in relation to fire frequency and size. We examined the sensitivity of predictions to dispersal, senescence, fire frequency, spatial burning pattern and size variance, and the size of the grid. Simulations 200 years in length indicated that extinction probability was lowest when mean fire frequency was intermediate and mean fire size was large. When fire frequency was high, extinction probability was high irrespective of fire size. Senescence was more important than high-frequency fire as a cause of extinction in cells. Interactions between dispersal, fire frequency, and size were complex, indicating that extinction is governed by intercell connectivity. The model indicates that fire patchiness cannot be assumed to ensure avoidance of extinction of populations. Conservation of populations is most likely when fire patchiness is relatively low—when the size of fires is moderate to large and when burned patches are contiguous.     

Integrating Science into Management of Ecosystems in the Greater Blue Mountains

Effective management of large protected conservation areas is challenged by political, institutional and environmental complexity and inconsistency. Knowledge generation and its uptake into management are crucial to address these challenges. We reflect on practice at the interface between science and management of the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area (GBMWHA), which covers approximately 1 million hectares west of Sydney, Australia. Multiple government agencies and other stakeholders are involved in its management, and decision-making is confounded by numerous plans of management and competing values and goals, reflecting the different objectives and responsibilities of stakeholders. To highlight the complexities of the decision-making process for this large area, we draw on the outcomes of a recent collaborative research project and focus on fire regimes and wild-dog control as examples of how existing knowledge is integrated into management. The collaborative research project achieved the objectives of collating and synthesizing biological data for the region; however, transfer of the project’s outcomes to management has proved problematic. Reasons attributed to this include lack of clearly defined management objectives to guide research directions and uptake, and scientific information not being made more understandable and accessible. A key role of a local bridging organisation (e.g., the Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute) in linking science and management is ensuring that research results with management significance can be effectively transmitted to agencies and that outcomes are explained for nonspecialists as well as more widely distributed. We conclude that improved links between science, policy, and management within an adaptive learning-by-doing framework for the GBMWHA would assist the usefulness and uptake of future research.