A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of environmental policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-a-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of environmental policymaking, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the decision criterion we propose is an analog of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply our criterion to the climate-change context and the probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

     

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

In this paper, the fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Lam.) Boiss. were studied (1) to reveal processes that contributed to its persistence to climate changes and (2) to assist future conservation planning, with the purpose of shifting the attention of conservation practitioners from patterns to processes. Results of the fine-scale spatial patterns of Z. abelicea indicate that the species tolerates disturbance and/or tracks changes resulting from disturbance in the range of its distribution through morphological and reproductive plasticity. In addition, our study indicates that Z. abelicea populations are conserved in the absence of metapopulation structure and that the species participates in plant–plant interactions through facilitation processes. Hence, the persistence of the species to climate changes seems to be more complicated and multifactorial than a linear and plain view of species survival in climate refugial areas, and therefore calls for a consideration of the processes revealed in this paper in future conservation planning.     

Effects of ammonia from livestock farming on lichen photosynthesis

This study investigated if atmospheric ammonia (NH₃) pollution around a sheep farm influences the photosynthetic performance of the lichens Evernia prunastri and Pseudevernia furfuracea. Thalli of both species were transplanted for up to 30 days in a semi-arid region (Crete, Greece), at sites with concentrations of atmospheric ammonia of ca. 60 μg/m³ (at a sheep farm), ca. 15 μg/m³ (60 m from the sheep farm) and ca. 2 μg/m³ (a remote area 5 km away). Lichen photosynthesis was analysed by the chlorophyll a fluorescence emission to identify targets of ammonia pollution. The results indicated that the photosystem II of the two lichens exposed to NH₃ is susceptible to this pollutant in the gas-phase. The parameter PI_ABS, a global index of photosynthetic performance that combines in a single expression the three functional steps of the photosynthetic activity (light absorption, excitation energy trapping, and conversion of excitation energy to electron transport) was much more sensitive to NH₃ than the F_V/F_M ratio, one of the most commonly used stress indicators.     

Soil Contribution to the Elemental Composition of Epiphytic Lichens (Tuscany, Central Italy)

Total concentrations of Al, Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Pb, Sr, Ti, V and Zn in the epiphytic lichen Parmelia sulcata and superficial soils from 60 remote sampling sites in Tuscany (central Italy) were determined to evaluate the contribution of soil to the elemental composition of the lichen. The results showed that in the Mediterranean environment, the trace element content of unwashed lichen samples is greatly affected by soil contamination. However, despite the strong correlations between the concentrations of lithogene elements such as Al, Fe and Ti in P. sulcata, lichen levels of these elements were not at all linearly correlated with their concentrations in the soil, suggesting that dust contamination is highly variable and probably dependent on local site characteristics. All methods evaluated to minimize soil contamination indicated Cu, Pb and Zn as elements of atmospheric origin. However, while levels of Pb were similar to those reported for background areas, moderate pollution by Cu and Zn, probably from fertilizers used in agriculture, was revealed. For elements such as Cd and Mo, identified as atmophile, some uncertainty exists due to the fact that they are essential for lichen metabolism and accumulate intracellularly in lichens; they may therefore occur in soluble form in the lichen thallus.     

A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height

This article analyses, using Bayesian networks, the circumstances surrounding workplace tasks performed using auxiliary equipment (ladders, scaffolding, etc.) that may result in falls. The information source was a survey of employees working at a height. We were able to determine the usefulness of this approach – innovative in the accident research field – in identifying the causes that have the greatest bearing on accidents involving auxiliary equipment: in these cases, the adoption of incorrect postures during work and a worker’s inadequate knowledge of safety regulations. Likewise, the duration of tasks was also associated with both these variables, and therefore, with the accident rate. Bayesian networks also enable dependency relationships to be established between the different causes of accidents. This information – which is not usually furnished by conventional statistical methods applied in the field of labour risk prevention – allow a causality model to be defined for workplace accidents in a more realistic way. With this statistic tool, the expert is also provided with useful information that can be input to a management model for labour risk prevention.     

Lichen biomonitoring of ammonia emission and nitrogen deposition around a pig stockfarm

Effects of high ammonia emissions and nitrogen deposition were investigated on lichens around a pig stockfarm (ca. 7,000 animals) in central Italy. Four sites were selected along a transect at 200, 400, 1000 and 2500 m from the stockfarm, the diversity of epiphytic lichens was measured and transplanted thalli of Xanthoria parietina and Flavoparmelia caperata exposed, together with passive NH3 (diffusion tubes) samplers. Ammonia dramatically decreased from the centre of the stockfarm to the sampled sites, where it was correlated with bark pH. Total lichen diversity was not associated with either NH3 concentrations or bark pH, but the diversity of strictly nitrophytic species was highly correlated with both parameters. Physconia grisea was the best indicator species for NH3 pollution. Total N accumulated in X. parietina and F. caperata was correlated with NH3 concentrations.     

Accumulation of Heavy Metals in Epiphytic Lichens Near a Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator (Central Italy)

The epiphytic lichen Parmelia caperata was usedas biomonitor in the area of a municipal solid wasteincinerator (Poggibonsi, central Italy) to investigatethe levels and the spatial distribution of the heavymetals Al, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Pb and Zn. Levels ofAl, Cu and Hg were similar to those in unpollutedareas, whereas high values were found for Cr, Zn andespecially Cd. The distribution pattern of the lastthree metals and the exponential relationship of theirconcentrations with distance from the incinerator,showed that the disposal plant is a local source ofatmospheric pollution due to Cd, Cr and Zn. For thesemetals, long-term hazard should be seriously taken into account.     

Epiphytic lichens as sentinels for heavy metal pollution at forest ecosystems (central Italy)

The results of a study using epiphytic lichens (Parmelia caperata) as sentinels for heavy metal deposition at six selected forest ecosystems of central Italy are reported. The woods investigated are characterized by holm oak (Quercus ilex), turkey oak (Quercus cerris) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) and represent the typical forest ecosystems of central Italy at low, medium and high elevations, respectively. The results showed that levels of heavy metals in lichens were relatively low and consequently no risk of heavy metal air pollution is expected for the six forest ecosystems investigated. However, for two of them there are indications of a potential risk: the beech forest of Vallombrosa showed signs of contamination by Pb as a consequence of vehicle traffic due to the rather high touristic pressure in the area, and the holm oak forest of Cala Violina showed transboundary pollution by Mn, Cr and Ni originating from the steel industry in Piombino. Epiphytic lichens proved to be very effective as an early warning system to detect signs of a changing environment at forest ecosystems.     

Assessing the alteration of physicochemical characteristics in composted organic waste in a prototype decentralized composting facility

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - This article presents the pilot experience of an integrated biowaste management system developed in Tinos island, Greece, which promoted source...