Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

PCE dissolution and simultaneous dechlorination by nanoscale zero-valent iron particles in a DNAPL source zone

While the capability of nanoscale zero-valent iron (NZVI) to dechlorinate organic compounds in aqueous solutions has been demonstrated, the ability of NZVI to remove dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) from source zones under flow-through conditions similar to a field scale application has not yet been thoroughly investigated. To gain insight on simultaneous DNAPL dissolution and NZVI-mediated dechlorination reactions after direct placement of NZVI into a DNAPL source zone, a combined experimental and modeling study was performed. First, a DNAPL tetrachloroethene (PCE) source zone with emplaced NZVI was built inside a small custom-made flow cell and the effluent PCE and dechlorination byproducts were monitored over time. Second, a model for rate-limited DNAPL dissolution and NZVI-mediated dechlorination of PCE to its three main reaction byproducts with a possibility for partitioning of these byproducts back into the DNAPL was formulated. The coupled processes occurring in the flow cell were simulated and analyzed using a detailed three-dimensional numerical model. It was found that subsurface emplacement of NZVI did not markedly accelerate DNAPL dissolution or the DNAPL mass-depletion rate, when NZVI at a particle concentration of 10g/L was directly emplaced in the DNAPL source zone. To react with NZVI the DNAPL PCE must first dissolve into the groundwater and the rate of dissolution controls the longevity of the DNAPL source. The modeling study further indicated that faster reacting particles would decrease aqueous contaminant concentrations but there is a limit to how much the mass removal rate can be increased by increasing the dechlorination reaction rate. To ensure reduction of aqueous contaminant concentrations, remediation of DNAPL contaminants with NZVI should include emplacement in a capture zone down-gradient of the DNAPL source.     

Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions: Using the model based on the population density distribution

The method is used for calculating regional urban area dynamics and the resulting carbon emissions (from the land-conversion) for the period of 1980 till 2050 for the eight world regions. This approach is based on the fact that the spatial distribution of population density is close to the two-parametric Γ-distribution [Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A., 1958. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vol. 1.2. Academic Press, New York; Vaughn, R., 1987. Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns, Pion, London]. The developed model provides us with the scenario of urbanisation, based on which the regional and world dynamics of carbon emissions and export from cities, and the annual total urban carbon balance are estimated. According to our estimations, world annual emissions of carbon as a result of urbanisation increase up to 1.25 GtC in 2005 and begin to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36 GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) in the global carbon balance is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon from UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, reaching 505 MtC. The latter, is comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196–537 MtC). The current model shows that urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020–2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. By the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, with the exchange flows fully balanced, and may even be negative, with the system beginning to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”. The regional dynamics is somewhat more complex, i.e., some regions, like China, Asia and Pacific are being active sources of Carbon through the studied period, while others are changing from source to sink or continue to be neutral in respect the GCC.     

The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship

Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geoengineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.     

Smallholder agriculture in Northeast Brazil: assessing heterogeneous human-environmental dynamics

A qualitative model of smallholder agriculture with a few core variables and two allocation rules for labour and investment in agricultural resources was developed to cover spatial heterogeneity in Northeast Brazil. This region is characterised by large natural and socio-economic variance, recurrent droughts and widespread rural poverty. The resulting system dynamics essentially consists of a cycle of four qualitative states, each depicting a typical pattern of trends in smallholder agriculture. Municipal statistical data were used to identify the spatial distribution of these patterns for the 1990s and the internal transition likelihood between subsequent states. Additionally the influence of external perturbations like droughts and producer price shocks on the smallholder system was investigated.We regret to have to announce that since the writing of this article one of its authors, Gerhard Petschel-Held has died.     

“Emission game”: some applications of the theory of games to the problem of CO2 emission

If there are no doubts that we must reduce the total emission of carbon dioxide, then the problem of how much different countries should be allowed to contribute to this amount remains a serious one. We suggest this problem to be considered as a non-antagonistic game (in Germeier's sense). A game of this kind is called an “emission game”. Suppose that there are n independent actors (countries or regions), each of them releasing a certain amount of CO₂ per year (in carbon units) into the atmosphere, and that the emission would be reduced by each actor. Each actor has his own aim: to minimise the loss in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused by the reduction of emissions. On the other hand, taking into account that it is impossible to estimate more or less precisely the impact of the climate change on GDP for each country today, a common strategy will be to reduce the climate change. Since one of the main leading factors in global warming is the greenhouse effect, then the common aim will be to reduce the sum of emissions. This is a typical conflict situation. How to resolve it? We can weigh the “egoistic” and “altruistic” criteria for each actor introducing the so-called “coefficients of egoism”. This coefficient is very large, if the actor uses a very egoistic strategy, and conversely, if the actor is a “super-altruist”, then the corresponding coefficient is very small. Using these coefficients we get the general solution of the game in a form of some Pareto's equilibrium. The solution is stable and efficient.     

Utilization of urban sewage sludge: Chinese perspectives

Purpose

Urbanization and industrialization in China has resulted in a dramatic increase in the volume of wastewater and sewage sludge produced from wastewater treatment plants. Problems associated with sewage sludge have attracted increasing attention from the public and urban planners. How to manage sludge in an economically and environmentally acceptable manner is one of the critical issues that modern societies are facing.

Methods

Sludge treatment systems consist of thickening, dewatering, and several different alternative main treatments (anaerobic digestion, aerobic digestion, drying, composting, and incineration). Agricultural application, landfill, and incineration are the principal disposal methods for sewage sludge in China. However, sewage sludge disposal in the future should focus on resource recovery, reducing environmental impacts and saving economic costs.

Results

The reuse of biosolids in all scenarios can be environmentally beneficial and cost-effective. Anaerobic digestion followed by land application is the preferable options due to low economic and energy costs and material reuse.

Conclusion

It is necessary to formulate a standard suitable for the utilization of sewage sludge in China.