Optimization of capture–recapture monitoring of elusive species illustrated with a threatened grasshopper

Information on population sizes and trends of threatened species is essential for their conservation, but obtaining reliable estimates can be challenging. We devised a method to improve the precision of estimates of population size obtained from capture–recapture studies for species with low capture and recapture probabilities and short seasonal activity, illustrated with population data of an elusive grasshopper (Prionotropis rhodanica). We used data from 5 capture–recapture studies to identify methodological and environmental factors affecting capture and recapture probabilities and estimates of population size. In a simulation, we used the population size and capture and recapture probability estimates obtained from the field studies to identify the minimum number of sampling occasions needed to obtain unbiased and robust estimates of population size. Based on these results we optimized the capture–recapture design, implemented it in 2 additional studies, and compared their precision with those of the nonoptimized studies. Additionally, we simulated scenarios based on thresholds of population size in criteria C and D of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List to investigate whether estimates of population size for elusive species can reliably inform red-list assessments. Identifying parameters that affect capture and recapture probabilities (for the grasshopper time since emergence of first adults) and optimizing field protocols based on this information reduced study effort (−6% to −27% sampling occasions) and provided more precise estimates of population size (reduced coefficient of variation) compared with nonoptimized studies. Estimates of population size from the scenarios based on the IUCN thresholds were mostly unbiased and robust (only the combination of very small populations and little study effort produced unreliable estimates), suggesting capture–recapture can be considered reliable for informing red-list assessments. Although capture–recapture remains difficult and costly for elusive species, our optimization procedure can help determine efficient protocols to increase data quality and minimize monitoring effort.     

Cropland changes in times of conflict,reconstruction, and economic development in Iraqi Kurdistan

The destruction of land and forced migration during the Anfal attacks against the Kurds in Iraq in the late 1980s has been reported to have severe consequences for agricultural development. A reconstruction program to aid people in returning to their lands was launched in 1991. To assess the agricultural situation in the Duhok governorate during the pre-Anfal (A), post-Anfal (B), reconstruction (C), and present (D) periods, we mapped winter crops by focusing on inter-annual variability in vegetation greenness, using satellite images. The results indicate a decrease in cultivated area between period A and B, and a small increase between period B and C. This supports reports of a decline in cultivated area related to the Anfal campaign, and indicates increased activity during the reconstruction program. Period D showed a potential recovery with a cropland area similar to period A.     

Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity,habitat connectivity,and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta,Canada

Climate change generally requires species to migrate northward or to higher elevation to maintain constant climate conditions, but migration requirement and migration capacity of individual species can vary greatly. Individual populations of species occupy different positions in the landscape that determine their required range shift to maintain similar climate, and likewise the migration capacity depends on habitat connectivity. Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantifying species vulnerabilities to climate change for 419 rare vascular plants in Alberta, Canada, based on a multivariate velocity of climate change metric, local habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Climate change velocities indicated that future migration requirements ranged from 1 to 5 km/year in topographically complex landscapes, such as the Alberta Foothills and Rocky Mountains. In contrast, migration requirements to maintain constant climate in relatively flat Boreal Plains, Parkland, and Grassland ranged from 4 to 8 km/year. Habitat fragmentation was also highest in these flat regions, particularly the Parkland Natural Region. Of the 419 rare vascular plants assessed, 36 were globally threatened (G1–G3 ranking). Three globally threatened species were ranked as extremely vulnerable and five species as highly vulnerable to the interactions among climate change velocity, habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Incorporating dispersal characteristics and habitat fragmentation with local patterns in climate change velocity improves the assessment of climate change threats to species and may be applied to guide monitoring efforts or conservation actions.     

Re-construction of the shut-down PM10 monitoring stations for the reliable assessment of PM10 in Berlin using fuzzy modelling and data transformation

A dense monitoring network is vital for the reliable assessment of PM10 in different parts of an urban area. In this study, a new idea is employed for the re-construction of the 20 shut-down PM10 monitoring stations of Berlin. It endeavours to find the non-linear relationship between the hourly PM10 concentration of both the still operating and the shut-down PM10 monitoring stations by using a fuzzy modelling technique, called modified active learning method (MALM). In addition, the simulations were performed by using not only raw PM10 databases but also log-transformed PM10 databases for skewness reduction. According to the results of hourly PM10 simulation (root mean square error about 13.0 μg/m³, correlation coefficient 0.88), the shut-down stations have been appropriately simulated and the idea of dense monitoring network development by the re-construction of the shut-down stations was realised. The results of simulations using raw and log-transformed databases showed that data transformation has no significant effect on the performance of MALM in the simulation of shut-down PM10 stations. By the combination of the 11 still operating stations and the 20 re-constructed stations, a dense monitoring network was generated for Berlin and was utilised for the calculation of the reliable monthly and mean annual PM10 concentration for five different PM10 zones in Berlin (the suburban-background, urban-background, urban-traffic, rural-background and suburban-traffic areas). The results showed that the mean annual concentration of PM10 at the five zones increased by about 13.0% in 2014 (26.3 μg/m³) in comparison with 2013 (23.3 μg/m³). Furthermore, the mean annual concentration of PM10 in the traffic lanes of the suburban (2013 25.0 μg/m³, 2014 26.9 μg/m³) and urban (2013 27.7 μg/m³, 2014 31.3 μg/m³) areas is about 14 and 20% higher than the PM10 concentration of suburban-background (2013 21.3 μg/m³, 2014 24.5 μg/m³) and urban-background (2013 23.0 μg/m³, 2014 26.1 μg/m³) areas, respectively.     

Steel slags in a landfill top cover – Experiences from a full-scale experiment

A full scale field study has been carried out in order to test and evaluate the use of slags from high-alloy steel production as the construction materials for a final cover of an old municipal landfill. Five test areas were built using different slag mixtures within the barrier layer (liner). The cover consisted of a foundation layer, a liner with a thickness of 0.7 m, a drainage layer of 0.3 m, a protection layer of 1.5 m and a vegetation layer of 0.25 m. The infiltration varied depending on the cover design used, mainly the liner recipe but also over time and was related to seasons and precipitation intensity. The test areas with liners composed of 50% electric arc furnace (EAF) slag and 50% cementitious ladle slag (LS) on a weight basis and with a proper consistence of the protection layer were found to meet the Swedish infiltration criteria of ?50 l (m² a)^?1 for final covers for landfills for non-hazardous waste: the cumulative infiltration rates to date were 44, 19 and 0.4 l (m² a)^?1 for A1, A4 and A5, respectively. Compared to the precipitation, the portion of leachate was always lower after the summer despite high precipitation from June to August. The main reason for this is evapotranspiration but also the fact that the time delay in the leachate formation following a precipitation event has a stronger effect during the shorter summer sampling periods than the long winter periods. Conventional techniques and equipment can be used but close cooperation between all involved partners is crucial in order to achieve the required performance of the cover. This includes planning, method and equipment testing and quality assurance.