Evaluating mine plans under uncertainty: Can the real options make a difference?

Over the last few years, many studies have presented the real options valuation (ROV) as a promising technique of valuing natural resource investments under conditions of uncertainty. Apart from the common conclusion that the ROV is better than the conventional net present value (NPV) method in integrating the value of management flexibility and proper handling of cash flows risk, there is a lack of procedures for testing the usefulness and advantages of the ROV over the static NPV method in practice. Arguably, it is not yet clear whether the ROV can deal with the complexity of mining projects and whether it can really be applied to make decisions that improve project value.     

PROFILE: Tourism Contribution to Agro-Ecosystems Conservation: The Case of Lesbos Island, Greece

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of tourism activities on olive tree cultivation and the human population of the island of Lesbos. The presence or absence of tourism is related with the maintenance or abandonment of olive tree cultivation and population changes for each community. A spatial segregation of the island is evident, related to tourist development, olive tree cultivation, and population change. The results of the study demonstrate that in communities where tourism plays an important role olive tree cultivation is preserved and the population is stable. The preservation of the agro-ecosystem is assured while the olive groves remain productive. Simultaneously, the landscape, which provides specific attractions for tourism, is not altered.     

The Interactive Effects of Fire and Diversity on Short-Term Responses of Ecosystem Processes in Experimental Mediterranean Grasslands

We conducted a field experiment using constructed communities to test whether species richness contributed to the maintenance of ecosystem processes under fire disturbance. We studied the effects of diversity components (i.e., species richness and species composition) upon productivity, structural traits of vegetation, decomposition rates, and soil nutrients between burnt and unburnt experimental Mediterranean grassland communities. Our results demonstrated that fire and species richness had interactive effects on aboveground biomass production and canopy structure components. Fire increased biomass production of the highest-richness communities. The effects of fire on aboveground biomass production at different levels of species richness were derived from changes in both vertical and horizontal canopy structure of the communities. The most species-rich communities appeared to be more resistant to fire in relation to species-poor ones, due to both compositional and richness effects. Interactive effects of fire and species richness were not important for belowground processes. Decomposition rates increased with species richness, related in part to increased levels of canopy structure traits. Fire increased soil nutrients and long-term decomposition rate. Our results provide evidence that composition within richness levels had often larger effects on the stability of aboveground ecosystem processes in the face of fire disturbance than species richness per se.     

Valuing regional geoscientific data acquisition programmes: addressing issues of quantification,uncertainty and risk

Geological surveys worldwide are involved with research in support of sustainable mineral resource development.The socio-economic benefits to be derived from these activities, however, continue to raise organisational and government sector questions. Fundamental questions include whether or not the resources committed are appropriate and in economic balance with the total benefits to be derived. Another question concerns the degree to which such services should be funded by the community at large. These questions in turn raise important issues regarding the role and cost of geological surveys, the impact of their services, and how they should maximise community benefit from their activities and expertise. To assess the value of geoscientific information,standard valuation processes need to be modified. This paper reports on a methodology designed to quantify the 'worth' of programmes upgrading regional geoscientific infrastructure. An interdisciplinary approach is used to measure the impact of geoscientific information using quantitative resource assessment, computer-based mineral potential modelling, statistical analysis and risk quantification to model decision-processes and assess the impact of additional data. These modelling stages are used to address problems of complexity,uncertainty and credibility in the valuation of geoscientific data. A case study demonstrates the application of the methodology to generate a dollar value for current regional data upgrade programmes in the Geological Survey of Queensland. The results obtained are used for strategic planning of future data acquisition programmes aimed at supporting mineral resource management and stimulating effective exploration activity.     

Social capital and citizen perceptions of coastal management for tackling climate change impacts in Greece

There is a growing consensus among researchers that social aspects and the involvement of local communities play a critical role in public decision-making processes in the coastal zone. Social capital is a parameter which has recently gained significant attention in this context. It is regarded that it has a significant influence on the adaptation capacity of local communities to climate change impacts. The present paper aims to contribute to this field through an examination of citizens’ perceptions of three coastal zone management policies (hold the line, managed realignment and no active intervention) along with the influence of social capital on the level of social acceptability for these proposed policy options. For this purpose, a quantitative empirical study was conducted for the first time in five coastal areas of Greece that are regarded as high flood-risk areas due to sea-level rise. Respondents demonstrated that they are willing to accept changes in their social and natural environments in order to confront sea-level rise and are more positive towards the managed realignment option, as long as this is accompanied by financial compensation for those whose properties will be affected. Regarding the influence of social capital, through the results of an ordinal regression, it was observed that institutional and social trust influence positively citizens’ level of agreement for the managed realignment policy. Furthermore, respondents who believe that a sense of reciprocity exists in their community are also more willing to accept active intervention policies.     

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

Regional Environmental Change - The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation....     

Optimal production scale of open pit mining operations with uncertain metal supply and long-term stockpiles

An open pit mining operation consists of various stages, and the calculation of the production capacities of these stages depends upon the available supply of ore (mineralized material of economic value) and waste material. Cutoff grade is the criterion that specifies the amount of ore and waste. The material with grade equal to or higher than the cutoff grade is classified as ore. The material with grade less than the cutoff grade is considered waste. While this explains the link between cutoff grade theory and the calculation of production capacities, the majority of optimization models for finding production capacities not only disregards this relationship but also ignores expected variations and uncertainty in metal content or the available supply of ore and waste material.     

Local attitudes on protected areas: Evidence from three Natura 2000 wetland sites in Greece

Environmental policies aimed at the conservation of protected areas are significantly influenced by social factors revealing the importance of investigating local knowledge and perceptions during their planning and implementation. The present article aims to explore perceptions and awareness of citizens in three protected areas of Greece: The National Park of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, the Wetland of Kalloni, and Lake Tavropou. The survey explores perceptions of individuals on environmental issues and alternative management scenarios referring to management actors, funding sources, and management schemes for the conservation of biodiversity. Differences between the three research areas are also explored. According to the results of the study, citizens are in general supportive of protected areas and present relatively high levels of knowledge of environmental issues. However, environmental awareness is not accompanied by active participation for the resolution of environmental problems. By exploring differences between the three research areas, it is revealed that the provision of information significantly influences individuals’ perceptions on relevant issues. Also, a significant finding of the study is that citizens are supportive of some forms of participatory management. It is essential, to encourage public participation and deliberation in order to promote their sustainable management.     

Socioeconomic indicators and the survival of the tropical rainforest of cross river state of Nigeria

An internal household survey of socioeconomic indicators in the Cross River State forest communities showed that basic infrastructural facilities such as clean water supply, adequate waste disposal system, good roads and electricity are grossly inadequate. There is a total absence of modern family planning practices in the communities, and population is projected to increase by 44.8% between 2000 and 2015 and 85.4% between 2000 and 2025. The study revealed that about 65% of the population of the rainforest communities consists of subsistence farmers and power chain operators, and besides the 19% of the Cross River State Tropical High Forestry (THF) already reported to have been lost to agriculture and plantation between 1972 and 1991, about 9% was lost between 1991 and 2000. An additional 25% of the THF will be lost by 2025, leaving only 470600 hectares (4706 km²). With 84.1% of community members having an annual income less than $300, the survival potential of the Cross River State rainforest in the next fifty years is very low, unless an effective forest management programme is encouraged by government in partnership with all stakeholders.     

Local social capital and the acceptance of Protected Area policies: an empirical study of two Ramsar river delta ecosystems in northern Greece

Managing Protected Areas (PAs) is a challenging task, and globally many instruments have been utilised for this purpose. Existing research demonstrates that the effectiveness of these instruments is highly dependent on their social acceptability among local communities resident within PAs. Consequently, investigating local attitudes and perceptions of Protected Area (PA) policies has been emphasised in recent studies. Drawing on empirical work conducted in two National Parks including river delta ecosystems designated as Ramsar wetlands in northern Greece, this paper examines local residents' perceptions of three hypothesized policy options (regulatory, market-based and participatory) for Park management. The influence of social capital elements (social trust, institutional trust and social networks) on residents' perceptions is explored. The findings reveal a high degree of importance attached by resident communities to Park designation in both PAs, though residents' perceptions of the proposed management options varied. The regulatory option was regarded as the least restrictive, while the most restrictive was perceived to be the market-based option. However, greater benefits were identified by residents from the market-based option, while the fewest benefits were considered to arise from the proposed regulatory option. Furthermore, local residents' perceptions were significantly shaped by the proposed management and decision-making structure offered under each policy option. The influence of different social capital elements on residents' perceptions also varied in the study sample, with social trust and institutional trust positively correlated with the benefits that were perceived to arise from the different policy options. Moreover, when social capital was measured as an aggregate indicator at the level of the individual, it was positively correlated with perceived environmental benefits.