Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Flammability of hydrocarbon and carbon dioxide mixtures

The effect of carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration on the ignition behaviour of hydrocarbon and CO₂ gas mixtures is examined in both jets and confined explosions. Results from explosion tests are presented using a 20 l explosion sphere and an 8 m long section of 1.04 m diameter pipeline. Experiments to assess the flame stability and ignition probability in free-jets are reported for a range of different release velocities. An empirically-based flammability factor model for free-jets is also presented and results are compared to ignition probability measurements previously reported in the literature and those resulting from the present tests.The results help to understand how CO₂ changes the severity of fires and explosions resulting from hydrocarbon releases. They also demonstrate that it is possible to ignite gas mixtures when the mean concentration is outside the flammable range. This information may be useful for risk assessments of offshore platforms involved in carbon sequestration or enhanced oil recovery, or in assessing the hazards posed by poorly-inerted hydrocarbon processing plant.     

Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets

The relationship between primary and scrap prices has been hypothesized for the most part as unidirectional, characterized by spillovers from primary to scrap prices. The purpose of this study is to evaluate empirically the dynamic interactions between primary and scrap metal prices through multivariate time series methods. In addition, the study expands the investigation at the level of volatility transmission, which has not been previously examined. The metal prices utilized are for copper, lead, and zinc for the period 1984–2001. The paper demonstrates differing long run and short run links. Scrap prices do not improve the long run interpretation of primary prices, but information flows from the scrap to the primary markets exist in the short run. Additionally, the copper and lead markets exhibit bidirectional information flows in terms of volatility transmission. The analysis provides valuable insight into the interactions of the primary and scrap metal sectors which can be used to improve forecasting and planning.     

Metabolic rate and lipofuscin accumulation in juvenile European lobster (Homarus gammarus ) in relation to simulated seasonal changes in temperature

 The accumulation of lipofuscin, which is an indictor of physiological age, in the brain of juvenile European lobster (Homarus gammarus L.) was monitored for 22 mo in three experimental temperature regimes that simulated seasonal variation in temperature in the geographic range of this species. Metabolic rate responses to changes in temperature were estimated by measuring the activity of the electron transport system (ETS) in muscle tissue and in vivo rates of oxygen consumption. Lipofuscin accumulation oscillated with simulated seasonal changes in temperature and was described by seasonalised von Bertalanffy growth functions. The incremental accumulation in lipofuscin between sampling dates was linearly related to the number of degree days that accumulated between dates, irrespective of the amplitude of temperature fluctuation that had occurred. ETS activity increased with acclimation temperature and was modelled using a polynomial function. This indicated a lower temperature sensitivity in the temperature mid-range (12 to 16 °C), although the Q₁₀ for this mid-range was 2.1. ETS activity in lobsters acclimated to 8 and 18 °C and assayed at 13 °C was similar, indicating no compensation for changes in environmental temperature. Oxygen consumption rate was significantly higher at 14 °C than at 10.5 °C and had a Q₁₀ of 3.6, again suggesting no compensation to temperature change. The absence of metabolic compensation in response to temperature change in H. gammarus is consistent with the predictability of changes in temperature and food availability in the sub-littoral environment of this species. As lipofuscin accumulates according to metabolic rate, and metabolic rate in H. gammarus is directly correlated with temperature, geographic differences and long-term temporal trends in temperature will need to be considered when converting physiological age indices, obtained from lipofuscin estimates, to a chronological scale. Received: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 21 July 2000     

Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

The influence of work‐family culture and workplace relationships on work interference with family: a multilevel model

This research tested a multilevel model examining the influence of work‐family culture and supportive workplace relationships on work interference with family. Web‐based survey data were provided by 792 information technology employees from 10 organizations. Random coefficient modeling was used to test a path model examining the relationships between work‐family culture, leader‐member exchange (LMX), coworker support, and work interference with family. The direct effects of LMX and coworker support on work interference with family were significant. The indirect effect of work‐family culture on work interference with family was also significant. Results demonstrate the value of work‐family culture in understanding supportive supervisory and coworker relationships and work interference with family and highlight the need to employ multilevel models to understand these relationships. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.