Investigation of the Influence of Seagrass on Fisheries Catch Level Using Isotonic Regression

The relationship between seagrass area and the commercial catch of some economically important South Australian fish species is not known in any quantitative sense. However, there is evidence in the literature to suggest that seagrass decline will detrimentally impact on species abundance and composition, and consequently that the presence or absence of seagrass will compromise the commercial and recreational fishery. In this paper we describe the construction of models based on order restricted (isotonic) regression and discuss the role of seagrass area, in terms of its influence on the level of commercial catch through modifying the effect of fishing 'effort'.     

The Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Zn Deposition Around a Metal Smelter in Latvia

Heavy metal concentrations in Hylocomium splendens collected around a metal smelter in Latvia showed very high concentrations of Zn (>200 g/g), and elevated concentrations of Pb (38.3 g/g) and Cu (18.3 g/g). In an attempt to better evaluate the potential toxicity of the high Zn concentrations, a serial elution method was used to determine the concentrations of zinc in intercellular, extracellular exchangeable cell wall, intracellular, and particle fractions. The intercellular Zn concentrations represent the water soluble component of the total concentrations, and were low with no clear trends. Zn concentrations in the extra- and intracellular and particle fractions decreased exponentially from the pollutant source. Intracellular Zn concentrations in moss close to the emission source are within the range considered to be potentially toxic, from other single element exposure studies. The proportion of Zn in the relatively insoluble particle fraction, which is least associated with environmental risk, was greater closer to the pollution source, reaching > 30% in the oldest Hylocomium splendens segments.     

Trends in motor-vehicle related air pollutants in central London

Results of intermittent monitoring of six aromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene, m-xylene, p-xylene and o-xylene), carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen over a thirteen year period at a site in central London (Exhibition Road) are presented. Four monitoring regimes were undertaken; namely, 1979, 1982/83, 1986/87 and 1991/92. The summertime daytime mean ambient concentrations of the measured parameters at this site are presented. The reported concentrations show a reduction from 1979 to 1992 by approximately a factor of two, despite national increases in motor fuel consumption and the volume of traffic. Relevant European Community legislation covering emissions from motor-vehicles are outlined and comparisons are made with emissions from motor vehicles predicted from the UK national inventory. The importance of the frequency of measurements was also noted.     

Relationship between abundance of rodents and damage to agricultural crops

Developing a relationship between pest abundance and damage to crops is essential for the calculation of economic injury levels (EIL) leading to informed management decisions. The crop modelling framework, APSIM, was used to simulate the impact of mouse damage on yield loss on wheat where a long-term dataset on the density of mice was available (1983–2003). The model was calibrated using results from field trials where wheat plants were hand clipped to imitate mouse damage. The grazing effect of mice was estimated using the population density, daily intake per mouse and the proportion of wheat grain and plant tissue in the diet to determine yield loss. The mean yield loss caused by mice was 12.4% (±5.4S.E.; range −0.5 to 96%). There were 7/21 years when yield loss was >5%. A damage/abundance relationship was constructed and a sigmoidal curve explained 97% of variation when accounting for different trajectories of mouse densities from sowing to harvest. The majority of damage occurred around emergence of the crop when mouse densities were >100 mice ha⁻¹. This is the first time that field data on mouse density and a crop simulation model have been combined to estimate yield loss. The model examines the efficacy of baiting and how to estimate EILs. Because the broadscale application of zinc phosphide is cheap and effective, the EIL is very low (<1% yield loss). The APSIM model is highly flexible and could be used for other vertebrate pests in a range of crops or pastures to develop density/damage relationships and to assist with management.     

The selection of management strategies for controlling nematodes in cereals

Several genera and species of plant-parasitic nematodes cause losses in grain yield in cereals; some are of relatively minor importance (e.g. Anguina tritici (Steinbuch) Chitwood, the cause of “ear cockle” in wheat), while others such as the cereal cyst nematode (CCN) (Heterodera avenae Woll.) have a wide geographic distribution, infest extensive areas, and may cause losses valued at millions of dollars. Some of these nematodes are difficult to control because the measures that might be used are uneconomic to apply or are impractical. The control of CCN, however, can be achieved, and several successful strategies have been developed in parts of Europe and in Australia. The various measures available to Australian cereal growers include: crop rotation, resistant cultivars, manipulation of sowing dates, use of nematicides, and reduced cultivation. The selection of an appropriate management strategy for the control of CCN is influenced by factors such as: climate, cereal species grown, yield potential, rotations practised and the availability of alternative crops, pathotype present, farm size, availability of resistant cultivars, nematicides registered, and the availability of suitable equipment for their application.     

以中国为鉴--为什么西方的经济模式在全世界都将行不通

中国的美国梦会变成世界的恶梦吗？对于中国13亿人口，美国梦正在变成中国梦。数百万的中国人已经过上美国式的生活：食用更多肉类，开私家车，出国旅游，像美国人那样把迅速增加的收入用于其他开销。尽管这些美国生活方式的消费者还只是中国人口的一小部分，但中国对世界资源的需求已经变得相当可观。     

A survey of diagnostic amniocenteses in Oxford from 1974–1981

A survey was conducted of the results of mid-trimester diagnostic amniocenteses in the Oxford Region from 1974 to 1981. The survey used data relating to all 4357 singleton pregnancies in which an amniocentesis was performed during this period. Follow-up information on outcome was obtained in respect of 4284 (98 per cent) pregnancies. A cell culture to determine karyotype and an alpha-fetoprotein determination was carried out in all cases. From 1974 to 1981 amniocenteses became increasingly common, rising from 2 to 32 per 1000 births. The most common indication for amniocentesis was a high risk of a chromosome abnormality–56 per cent of all amniocenteses. Within this group advanced maternal age was responsible for 89 per cent of the cases. The next most common indication was a high risk of a neural tube defect (37 per cent of all amniocenteses)–in 1974 a raised maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein level accounted for only 4 per cent of these; by 1981 this had risen to 67 per cent. There were seven false-positive and 132 true-positive diagnoses of neural tube defect; since 1981, with the introduction of amniotic fluid acetylocholinesterase determination as a secondary diagnostic test for neural tube defects, there have been no further false-positive diagnoses. In 1981 76 per cent of women aged 35 years or more did not have an amniocentesis. It is not known to what extent this was due to not offering women in this age group amniocentesis or to women not accepting such an offer.     

巴西亚马孙流域热带森林的开垦与大豆生产:以朗多尼亚州维列纳市为例

近来巴西大豆生产的增长引发了环境保护团体以及一些学者对于亚马孙盆地的热带自然环境正在向大豆种植地转换的关注.大豆生产的支持者则认为大豆是区域的一种可行性农产品;对于环境的关注是没有根据的,因为新的大豆种植地正在替代已经被砍伐的林地或者是转换了的土地.两种观点虽被提出却都没有对大豆生产扩充区的土地利用与土地覆被(LULC)状况进行过综合研究与估量.本案例研究是在巴西的朗多尼亚州,亚马孙盆地西南部的维列纳市(Vimena),通过遥感手段对1996～2001年以来该市大豆种植面积的大幅度增加所伴随的土地利用与土地覆被变化状况进行评估.结果表明虽然森林变成了大豆生产基地,但是大部分的大豆生产的增长归功于对已有土地的微量扩充、已伐林地的转换以及更高的单位产量.