THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

Hypsographs: Basic tools for lake management and monitoring

Hypsographs are graphic depictions of the vertical distributions of volumes or masses of water in lakes, ponds, or reservoirs. Quantitative limnological science or engineering must use a hypsograph, or a more complex equivalent system, to undertake calculations of water constituent concentration data by mathematical weighting. Construction of the graph is simple and described. Exemplary uses of the hypsograph are presented.     

Hygroscopic organic aerosols during BRAVO?

The hygroscopic properties of the organic fraction of aerosols are poorly understood. The ability of organic aerosols to absorb water as a function of relative humidity (RH) was examined using data collected during the 1999 Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational Study (BRAVO). (On average, organics accounted for 22% of fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) mass). Hourly RH exceeded 80% only 3.5% of the time and averaged 44%. BRAVO aerosol chemical composition and dry particle size distributions were used to estimate PM2.5 light scattering (Bsp) at low and high ambient RH. Liquid water growth associated with inorganic species was sufficient to account for measured Bsp for RH between 70 and 95%.     

Spatial, temporal, and interspecies patterns in fine particulate matter in Texas

The Big Bend Regional Aerosol and Visibility Observational (BRAVO) field study was conducted from July to October 1999 and was followed by several years of modeling and data analyses to examine the causes of haze at Big Bend National Park TX (BBNP). During BRAVO, daily speciated fine (diameter <2.5 microm) particulate concentrations were measured at 37 sites throughout Texas. At the primary receptor site, K-Bar Ranch, there were many additional measurements including a "high-sensitivity" version of the 24-hr fine particulate elemental data. The spatial, temporal, and interspecies patterns in these data are examined here to qualitatively investigate source regions and source types influencing the fine particulate concentrations in Texas with an emphasis on sources of sulfates, the largest contributor to fine mass and light extinction. Peak values of particulate sulfur (S) varied spatially and seasonally. Maximum S was in Northeast Texas during the summer, whereas peak S at BBNP was in the fall. Sulfate acidity at BBNP also varied by month. Sources of Se were evident in Northeast Texas and from the Carbón I and II plants. High S episodes at BBNP during BRAVO had several different trace element characteristics. Carbon concentrations at BBNP during BRAVO were probably mostly urban-related, with arrival from the Houston area likely. The Houston artificial tracer released during the second half of BRAVO was highly correlated with some carbon fractions. There was evidence of the influence of African dust at sites throughout Texas during the summer. Patterns in several trace elements were also examined. Vanadium was associated with air masses from Mexico. Lead concentrations in southern Texas have dropped dramatically over the past several years.     

Synergistic influences of phase, density, and climatic variation on the dynamics of fluctuating populations

Although ecologists have long recognized that certain mammalian species exhibit high-amplitude, often multiannual, fluctuations in abundance, their causes have remained poorly understood and the subject of intense debate. A key contention has been the relative role of density-dependent and density-independent processes in governing population dynamics. We applied capture-mark-recapture analysis to 25 years of monthly trapping data from a fluctuating prairie vole Microtus ochrogaster population in Illinois, USA, to estimate realized population growth rates and associated vital rates (survival and recruitment) and modeled them as a function of vole density and density-independent climatic variation. We also tested for phase dependence and seasonality in the effects of the above processes. Variation in the realized population growth rate was best explained by phase-specific changes in vole density lagged by one month and mean monthly temperatures with no time lags. The underlying vital rates, survival and recruitment, were influenced by the additive and interactive effects of phase, vole density, and mean monthly temperatures. Our results are consistent with the observation that large-scale population fluctuations are characterized by phase-specific changes in demographic and physiological characteristics. Our findings also support the growing realization that the interaction between climatic variables and density-dependent factors may be a widespread phenomenon, and they suggest that the direction and magnitude of such interactive effects may be phase specific. We conclude that density-dependent and density-independent climatic variables work in tandem during each phase of density fluctuations to drive the dynamics of fluctuating populations.     

Loss of particle nitrate from teflon sampling filters: effects on measured gravimetric mass in California and in the IMPROVE network

The extent of mass loss on Teflon filters caused by ammonium nitrate volatilization can be a substantial fraction of the measured particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm (PM2.5) or 10 microm (PM10) mass and depends on where and when it was collected. There is no straightforward method to correct for the mass loss using routine monitoring data. In southern California during the California Acid Deposition Monitoring Program, 30-40% of the gravimetric PM2.5 mass was lost during summer daytime. Lower mass losses occurred at more remote locations. The estimated potential mass loss in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments network was consistent with the measured loss observed in California. The biased mass measurement implies that use of Federal Reference Method data for fine particles may lead to control strategies that are biased toward sources of fugitive dust, other primary particle emission sources, and stable secondary particles (e.g., sulfates). This analysis clearly supports the need for speciated analysis of samples collected in a manner that preserves volatile species. Finally, although there is loss of volatile nitrate (NO3-) from Teflon filters during sampling, the NO3- remaining after collection is quite stable. We found little loss of NO3- from Teflon filters after 2 hr under vacuum and 1 min of heating by a cyclotron proton beam.     

Analysis of Respirable Fractions in Atmospheric Particulates via Sequential Filtration

It has long been recognized that information on particle size distributions in atmospheric aerosals is necessary for meaningful evaluations of potential health hazards. Such information is also important in establishing particulate sources, transport, transformations, and sinks, especially in combination with elemental and chemical data. While instruments exist to collect size segregated samples of particulates, they are too complex and expensive to encourage use of multiple units in field situations.     

Evaluation of Wind Fields Used in Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Analyses

ABSTRACT

The Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission (GCVTC) was established by the U.S. Congress to assess the potential impacts of projected growth on atmospheric visibility at Grand Canyon National Park and to make recommendations to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on what measures could be taken to avoid such adverse impacts. A critical input to the assessment tool used by the commission was three-dimensional model-derived wind fields used to transport the emissions. This paper describes the evaluation of the wind fields used at various stages in the assessment. Wind fields evaluated included those obtained from the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the National Meteorological Center's Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (ATAD) trajectory model. The model-derived wind fields were evaluated at multiple vertical levels at several locations in the southwestern United States by determining differences between model predicted winds and winds that were measured using radiosonde and radar wind profiler data. Model-derived winds were also evaluated by determining the percent of time that they were within acceptable differences from measured winds.

All models had difficulties, generally meeting the acceptable criteria for less than 50% of the predictions. The RAMS model had a persistent bias toward southwesterly winds at the expense of other directions, especially failing to represent channeling by north-south mountain ranges in the lower levels. The NGM model exhibited a substantial bias in the summer months by extending northwesterly winds in the eastern Pacific Ocean well inland, in contrast to the observed southwesterlies at inland locations. The simpler ATAD trajectory model performed somewhat better than the other models, probably because of its use of more upper air sites. The results of the evaluation indicated that these wind fields could not be used to reliably predict source-receptor impacts on a particular day; thus, seasonally averaged impacts were used in the GCVTC assessment.