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1.
Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.  相似文献   
2.
Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.  相似文献   
3.
Conservation decisions are invariably made with incomplete data on species’ distributions, habitats, and threats, but frameworks for allocating conservation investments rarely account for missing data. We examined how explicit consideration of missing data can boost return on investment in ecosystem restoration, focusing on the challenge of restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity by removing dams and road crossings from rivers. A novel way of integrating the presence of unmapped barriers into a barrier optimization model was developed and applied to the U.S. state of Maine to maximize expected habitat gain for migratory fish. Failing to account for unmapped barriers during prioritization led to nearly 50% lower habitat gain than was anticipated using a conventional barrier optimization approach. Explicitly acknowledging that data are incomplete during project selection, however, boosted expected habitat gains by 20–273% on average, depending on the true number of unmapped barriers. Importantly, these gains occurred without additional data. Simply acknowledging that some barriers were unmapped, regardless of their precise number and location, improved conservation outcomes. Given incomplete data on ecosystems worldwide, our results demonstrate the value of accounting for data shortcomings during project selection.  相似文献   
4.
• A survey on individual’s perception of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was conducted. • Waterborne transmission risks are far less perceived by individuals. • Precautions of preventing wastewater mediated transmission are implemented. • The precautions for wastewater transmission are less favored by the public. • Education level differs the most regarding to waterborne transmission perception. SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in various environmental media. Community and individual-engaged precautions are recommended to stop or slow environmentally-mediated transmission. To better understand the individual’s awareness of and precaution to environmental dissemination of SARS-CoV-2, an online survey was conducted in Beijing during March 14–25, 2020. It is found that the waterborne (especially wastewater mediated) spreading routes are far less perceived by urban communities. The precautions for wastewater transmission are less favored by the public than airborne and solid waste mediated spreading routes. Such risk communication asymmetry in waterborne transmission will be further enlarged in places with fragile water system. Furthermore, education level is the most significant attribution (Sig.<0.05) that causes the difference of awareness and precautions of the waterborne transmission among the respondents, according to the variance analysis results. Our survey results emphasize the urgent need for evidence-based, multifactorial precautions for current and future outbreaks of COVID-19.  相似文献   
5.

Animal manure is an important source of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the environment. However, the difference of antibiotic residues and ARG profiles in layer and broiler manure as well as their compost remains unexplored. In this study, we investigated the profiles of twelve antibiotics, seventeen ARGs, and class 1 integrase gene (intI1) in layer and broiler manure, and the corresponding compost at large-scale. Compared with layer manure, broiler manure exhibited approximately six times more residual tetracyclines, especially chlortetracycline. The relative abundances of qnrS and ermA genes in broiler manure were significantly higher than those in layer manure. The concentration of tetracyclines not only had a significantly positive correlation with tetracycline resistance genes (tetA and tetC) but was also positively correlated with quinolone resistance (qepA, qnrB, and qnrS) and macrolide resistance (ermA and ermT). Most ARGs in manure were reduced after composting. However, the relative abundance of sulfonamide resistance gene sul1 increased up to 2.41% after composting, which was significantly higher than that of broiler (0.41%) and layer (0.62%) manure. The associated bacterial community was characterized by high-throughput 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The relative abundances of thermophilic bacteria had significant positive correlations with the abundance of sul1 in compost. The composting has a significant impact on the ARG-associated gut microbes in poultry manure. Variation partitioning analysis indicated that the change of bacterial community compositions and antibiotics contributed partially to the shift in ARG profiles. The results indicate that at industry-scale production broiler manure had more antibiotics and ARGs than layer manure did, and composting decreased most ARG abundances in poultry manure except for sulfonamide resistance genes.

  相似文献   
6.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Glyphosate is the most used herbicide worldwide. Many studies have reported glyphosate risks to aquatic organisms of different trophic levels....  相似文献   
7.
• Pore structure affects biologically activated carbon performance. • Pore structure determines organic matter (OM) removal mechanism. • Microbial community structure is related to pore structure and OM removal. Optimizing the characteristics of granular activated carbon (GAC) can improve the performance of biologically activated carbon (BAC) filters, and iodine value has always been the principal index for GAC selection. However, in this study, among three types of GAC treating the same humic acid-contaminated water, one had an iodine value 35% lower than the other two, but the dissolved organic carbon removal efficiency of its BAC was less than 5% away from the others. Iodine value was found to influence the removal of different organic fractions instead of the total removal efficiency. Based on the removal and biological characteristics, two possible mechanisms of organic matter removal during steady-state were suggested. For GAC with poor micropore volume and iodine value, high molecular weight substances (3500–9000 Da) were removed mainly through degradation by microorganisms, and the biodegraded organics (soluble microbial by-products,<3500 Da) were released because of the low adsorption capacity of activated carbon. For GAC with higher micropore volume and iodine value, organics with low molecular weight (<3500 Da) were more easily removed, first being adsorbed by micropores and then biodegraded by the biofilm. The biomass was determined by the pore volume with pore diameters greater than 100 μm, but did not correspond to the removal efficiency. Nevertheless, the microbial community structure was coordinate with both the pore structure and the organic removal characteristics. The findings provide a theoretical basis for selecting GAC for the BAC process based on its pore structure.  相似文献   
8.
Worldwide, invasive species are a leading driver of environmental change across terrestrial, marine, and freshwater environments and cost billions of dollars annually in ecological damages and economic losses. Resources limit invasive‐species control, and planning processes are needed to identify cost‐effective solutions. Thus, studies are increasingly considering spatially variable natural and socioeconomic assets (e.g., species persistence, recreational fishing) when planning the allocation of actions for invasive‐species management. There is a need to improve understanding of how such assets are considered in invasive‐species management. We reviewed over 1600 studies focused on management of invasive species, including flora and fauna. Eighty‐four of these studies were included in our final analysis because they focused on the prioritization of actions for invasive species management. Forty‐five percent (n = 38) of these studies were based on spatial optimization methods, and 35% (n = 13) accounted for spatially variable assets. Across all 84 optimization studies considered, 27% (n = 23) explicitly accounted for spatially variable assets. Based on our findings, we further explored the potential costs and benefits to invasive species management when spatially variable assets are explicitly considered or not. To include spatially variable assets in decision‐making processes that guide invasive‐species management there is a need to quantify environmental responses to invasive species and to enhance understanding of potential impacts of invasive species on different natural or socioeconomic assets. We suggest these gaps could be filled by systematic reviews, quantifying invasive species impacts on native species at different periods, and broadening sources and enhancing sharing of knowledge.  相似文献   
9.
Quantitative parameters of cenopopulations of Lobaria pulmonaria, an endangered cyanolichen, have been studied in spruce phytocenoses of Karelia recovering after disturbance through the successional stage of aspen stands for a period ranging from 80 to 450 years. The results show that, as the time since disturbance increases, the total number of L. pulmonaria thalli and the number of colonized substrate units increase as well, with no stabilization of these parameters being observed in the series of communities studied. The total area of thalli in the phytocenoses is restored within approximately 200 years after the last disturbance. In old-growth forests (>400 years), L. pulmonaria thalli colonize a broad spectrum of tree species in different life states, including lower branches of young spruce trees. Even if they serve as temporary substrates, this can markedly strengthen the potential of the species for further expansion within the community in case of shortage in the main phorophyte (aspen). Thus, the proportion of regressive populations decreases, while that of colonizing populations increases, which is indicative of successful reproduction of the species.  相似文献   
10.
Objective: There have been substantial reductions in motor vehicle crash–related child fatalities due to advances in legislation, public safety campaigns, and engineering. Less is known about non-traffic injuries and fatalities to children in and around motor vehicles. The objective of this study was to describe the frequency of various non-traffic incidents, injuries, and fatalities to children using a unique surveillance system and database.

Methods: Instances of non-traffic injuries and fatalities in the United States to children 0–14 years were tracked from January 1990 to December 2014 using a compilation of sources including media reports, individual accounts from families of affected children, medical examiner reports, police reports, child death review teams, coroner reports, medical professionals, legal professionals, and other various modes of publication.

Results: Over the 25-year period, there were at least 11,759 events resulting in 3,396 deaths. The median age of the affected child was 3.7 years. The incident types included 3,115 children unattended in hot vehicles resulting in 729 deaths, 2,251 backovers resulting in 1,232 deaths, 1,439 frontovers resulting in 692 deaths, 777 vehicles knocked into motion resulting in 227 deaths, 415 underage drivers resulting in 203 deaths, 172 power window incidents resulting in 61 deaths, 134 falls resulting in 54 deaths, 79 fires resulting in 41 deaths, and 3,377 other incidents resulting in 157 deaths.

Conclusions: Non-traffic injuries and fatalities present an important threat to the safety and lives of very young children. Future efforts should consider complementary surveillance mechanisms to systematically and comprehensively capture all non-traffic incidents. Continued education, engineering modifications, advocacy, and legislation can help continue to prevent these incidents and must be incorporated in overall child vehicle safety initiatives.  相似文献   

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