A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Applying the zoo model to conservation of threatened exceptional plant species

Maintaining a living plant collection is the most common method of ex situ conservation for plant species that cannot be seed banked (i.e., exceptional species). Viability of living collections, and their value for future conservation efforts, can be limited without coordinated efforts to track and manage individuals across institutions. Using a pedigree-focused approach, the zoological community has established an inter-institutional infrastructure to support long-term viability of captive animal populations. We assessed the ability of this coordinated metacollection infrastructure to support the conservation of 4 plant species curated in living collections at multiple botanic gardens around the world. Limitations in current practices include the inability to compile, share, and analyze plant collections data at the individual level, as well as difficulty in tracking original provenance of ex situ material. The coordinated metacollection framework used by zoos can be adopted by the botanical community to improve conservation outcomes by minimizing the loss of genetic diversity in collections. We suggest actions to improve ex situ conservation of exceptional plant species, including developing a central database to aggregate data and track unique individuals of priority threatened species among institutions and adapting a pedigree-based population management tool that incorporates life-history aspects unique to plants. If approached collaboratively across regional, national, and global scales, these actions could transform ex situ conservation of threatened plant species.     

Estimation of Ambient PM2.5 Concentrations in Maryland and Verification by Measured Values

Abstract

In 1997, Maryland had no available ambient Federal Reference Method data on particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5), but did have annual ambient data for PM smaller than 10 μm (PM₁₀) at 24 sites. The PM₁₀ data were analyzed in conjunction with local annual and seasonal zip-code-level emission inventories and with speciated PM_2.5 data from four nearby monitors in the IMPROVE network (located in the national parks, wildlife refuges, and wilderness areas) in an effort to estimate annual average and seasonal high PM_2.5 concentrations at the 24 PM₁₀ monitor sites operating from 1992 to 1996. All seasonal high concentrations were estimated to be below the 24-hr PM_2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) at the sites operating in Maryland between 1992 and 1996. The estimates also indicated that 12 monitor sites might exceed the 3-year annual average PM_2.5 NAAQS of 15 ug/m³, but Maryland’s air quality shows signs that it has been improving since 1992. The estimates also were compared with actual measurements after the PM_2.5 monitor network was installed. The estimates were adequate for describing the chemical composition of the PM_2.5, forecasting compliance status with the 24-hr and annual standards, and determining the spatial variations in PM_2.5 across central Maryland.     

Insights into the dissolution and the three-dimensional structure of insensitive munitions formulations

Two compounds, 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN) and 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO) are the main ingredients in a suite of explosive formulations that are being, or soon will be, fielded at military training ranges. We aim to understand the dissolution characteristics of DNAN and NTO and three insensitive muntions (IM) formulations that contain them. This information is needed to accurately predict the environmental fate of IM constituents, some of which may be toxic to people and the environment. We used Raman spectroscopy to identify the different constituents in the IM formulations and micro computed tomography to image their three-dimensional structure. These are the first three-dimensional images of detonated explosive particles.     

Utility of North Atlantic Right Whale Museum Specimens for Assessing Changes in Genetic Diversity

Abstract: We examined six historical specimens of the endangered North Atlantic right whale ( Eubalaena glacialis ) using DNA isolated from documented baleen plates from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region from these samples were compared with those from a near-exhaustive survey (269 of approximately 320 individuals) of the remaining right whales in the western North Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that there has been only relatively modest change in maternal lineage diversity over the past century in the North Atlantic right whale population. Any significant reduction in genetic variation in the species most likely occurred prior to the late nineteenth century. One historical specimen was from the last documented female capable of propagating one of the maternal lineages in the population today; no females in the existing population have been found to carry this mtDNA haplotype. Analysis of the only specimens from the eastern North Atlantic right whale population ever to be examined revealed that eastern and western North Atlantic right whales may not have been genetically differentiated populations. Loss of gene diversity experienced by North Atlantic right whales over the last century has been modest, and the six decades of protection have been successful in maintaining much of the maternal lineage diversity that was present in the late nineteenth century.     

Organic interference of solidified/stabilized hazardous wastes

Liquid hazardous waste disposal in landfills is usually allowed only after solidification/stabilization. Although various procedures are commonly practiced, little is known about the mechanism(s) of the processes. A particular problem is the interference of organics. Small amounts of organics can interfere with the reaction between inorganic sludges and cementitous matrices. The present communication reports studies of the interaction between selected organic hazardous wastes and Type I Portland cement. Microscopic studies of the structural differences between cements set with water and those set with water plus organic liquids are discussed. In these studies the scanning electron microscope is used to observe samples fractured at 78K. The results provide technical background data on the ultimate stability of critical waste constituents solidified by various binding agents.     

Utilisation of phosphorus nutrient content in industrial scale plasmid DNA production: a waste minimisation study

Human gene therapy is currently seeing an increase in the use of plasmid (pDNA)-based vectors as a preferred choice of vehicle for delivery of the therapeutic gene into the body. In this regard, the environmental impacts of the waste streams from the possible industrial scale manufacture of pDNA require more detailed assessment. In this study, an initial assessment was made of the nutrient phosphorus (P) inputs to four fermentation processes recommended for the industrial scale production of pDNA for the purposes of gene therapy. Phosphorus inputs to each of the four selected fermentation processes ranged from approximately 60 mg l^?1 up to 3000 mg l^?1 in the fresh media. However, the spent media waste from each of the processes exhibited only a minor reduction in the phosphorus concentrations indicating minimal uptake of P by the microorganisms. This unutilised excess level of phosphorus nutrient within the waste streams poses a strong potential for environmental impact. Waste minimisation studies were undertaken on one model fermentation process with the aim of reducing unnecessary phosphorus input. An optimised media containing a 98% reduction in added P to the media was developed. This phosphorus-minimised media had little quantitative effect upon cell biomass produced and no effect upon the quantity or quality of pDNA produced, relative to the control media. The reduction in P requirement results in an overall cost savings of 12% per fermentation batch, would simplify subsequent wastewater treatment and would contribute to slowing the depletion rate of a valuable, finite natural resource.     

Fetal aneuploidy detection by maternal plasma DNA sequencing: a technology assessment

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists currently recommends that all pregnant women be offered screening for chromosomal abnormalities, regardless of maternal age. Traditional screening tests have detection rates ranging from 85% to 90% and false-positive rates of 3% to 5%. A woman with an abnormal noninvasive test is offered a diagnostic test, but diagnostic tests are associated with a risk of pregnancy loss. Recently, analysis of cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) in maternal blood has been shown to have potential for the accurate detection of some of the common fetal autosomal aneuploidies. As part of a technology assessment for the California Technology Assessment Forum, we critically reviewed the evidence for the use of cffDNA as a prenatal screening test. We evaluated the evidence for its use as either a ‘primary’ or an ‘advanced’ screening test and for its use in screening for three different trisomies: 21, 18, and 13. We evaluated whether the use of cffDNA met established technology assessment criteria and established conclusions about evidence-based use of this new technology. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remediation of acid mine drainage leachate by a physicochemical and biological treatment‐train approach

Biological and physicochemical approaches were utilized in a treatment train for acid mine dis charge (AMD) waters. Anaerobic bioreactors, chemical precipitation reactors, and biopolymer chelation reactors, operated in static, semicontinuous, and continuous flow modes, removed significant quantities of metals and sulfates associated with AMD water. Static tests indicated accept able copper removal via precipitation by generation of hydrogen sulfide in anaerobic reactors. However, low pH affected the biopolymer coating in the chelation reactor, resulting in loss of bed surface. Corrections of AMD to pH > 7 resulted in some metal precipitationprior to biopolymer treatment. A series of static semicontinuous tests at pH 5.0 provided improved metal and sulfate removal. Copper (Cu⁺) was reduced to trace concentrations, while manganese (Mn⁺), although reduced, proved to be the most recalcitrant of the metals. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A framework to assess regional environmental impacts of dedicated energy crop production

Numerous studies have evaluated air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of biomass energy systems, but the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale changes in land-use patterns needed to produce energy crops have not been quantified. This paper presents a framework to assess the potential soil, water, and biodiversity impacts that may result from the large-scale production of dedicated energy crops. The framework incorporates producer economic decision models with environmental models to assess changes in land use patterns and to quantify the consequent environmental impacts. Economic and policy issues that will affect decisions to produce energy crops are discussed. The framework is used to evaluate erosion and chemical runoff in two Tennessee regions. The analysis shows that production of dedicated energy crops in place of conventional crops will significantly reduce erosion and chemical runoff.