Beyond ‘just’ flood risk management: the potential for—and limits to—alleviating flood disadvantage

Regional Environmental Change - The threat of flooding poses a considerable challenge for justice. Not only are more citizens becoming exposed to risk, but they are expected to play increasingly...     

A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Comparative statistical study of hourly precipitation determined by radar-based Stage IV and ground-based methods in the North Central United States

Detailed hourly precipitation data are required for long-range modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants using the CALPUFF model. In sparsely populated areas such as the north central United States, ground-based precipitation measurement stations may be too widely spaced to offer a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a modeling domain. The availability of remotely sensed precipitation data by satellite and the National Weather Service array of next-generation radars (NEXRAD) deployed nationally provide an opportunity to improve on the paucity of data for these areas. Before adopting a new method of precipitation estimation in a modeling protocol, it should be compared with the ground-based precipitation measurements, which are currently relied upon for modeling purposes. This paper presents a statistical comparison between hourly precipitation measurements for the years 2006 through 2008 at 25 ground-based stations in the north central United States and radar-based precipitation measurements available from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) as Stage IV data at the nearest grid cell to each selected precipitation station. It was found that the statistical agreement between the two methods depends strongly on whether the ground-based hourly precipitation is measured to within 0.1 in/hr or to within 0.01 in/hr. The results of the statistical comparison indicate that it would be more accurate to use gridded Stage IV precipitation data in a gridded dispersion model for a long-range simulation, than to rely on precipitation data interpolated between widely scattered rain gauges.

Implications:

The current reliance on ground-based rain gauges for precipitation events and hourly data for modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants results in potentially large discontinuity in data coverage and the need to extrapolate data between monitoring stations. The use of radar-based precipitation data, which is available for the entire continental United States and nearby areas, would resolve these data gaps and provide a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a large modeling domain.     

Shifting elasmobranch community assemblage at Cocos Island—an isolated marine protected area

Fishing pressure has increased the extinction risk of many elasmobranch (shark and ray) species. Although many countries have established no‐take marine reserves, a paucity of monitoring data means it is still unclear if reserves are effectively protecting these species. We examined data collected by a small group of divers over the past 21 years at one of the world's oldest marine protected areas (MPAs), Cocos Island National Park, Costa Rica. We used mixed effects models to determine trends in relative abundance, or probability of occurrence, of 12 monitored elasmobranch species while accounting for variation among observers and from abiotic factors. Eight of 12 species declined significantly over the past 2 decades. We documented decreases in relative abundance for 6 species, including the iconic scalloped hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) (?45%), whitetip reef shark (Triaenodon obesus) (?77%), mobula ray (Mobula spp.) (?78%), and manta ray (Manta birostris) (?89%), and decreases in the probability of occurrence for 2 other species. Several of these species have small home ranges and should be better protected by an MPA, which underscores the notion that declines of marine megafauna will continue unabated in MPAs unless there is adequate enforcement effort to control fishing. In addition, probability of occurrence at Cocos Island of tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis), blacktip (Carcharhinus limbatus), and whale (Rhincodon typus) sharks increased significantly. The effectiveness of MPAs cannot be evaluated by examining single species because population responses can vary depending on life history traits and vulnerability to fishing pressure.     

Earth-tide-induced fluctuations in the salinity of an inland river,New South Wales,Australia: a short-term study

Wybong Creek discharges salts into the agriculturally and industrially important Hunter River in New South Wales, Australia. Abrupt increases in salinity occur periodically in the mid-Wybong Creek catchment. In order to understand the processes which cause these abrupt increases, changes in surface and groundwater were investigated. It is shown that salinity increases can be attributed to highly discrete groundwater discharge directly into the river from below. Hourly electrical conductivity data measured in the river showed regular, diurnal electrical conductivity fluctuations of up to 350 μS cm^?1. These fluctuations could not be attributed to barometric pressure, temperature, or evapotranspiration. Instead, a similar periodicity in surface water electrical conductivity and groundwater height in nearby groundwater wells was found. Fluctuations were of similar periodicity to the orthotides which cause fluctuations in surface water height and are induced by Earth tides. The geology in the mid-catchment area indicates conditions are optimal for Earth tides to impact groundwater. The reporting of orthotidal changes in water chemistry in this article is believed to be the first of its kind in the scientific literature, with the large fluctuations noted having important implications for water monitoring and management in the catchment. Further research investigating Earth-tide-induced phases of groundwater heights will better constrain the relationships between surface water chemistry and groundwater height.     

Augmenting Watershed Model Calibration with Incorporation of Ancillary Data Sources and Qualitative Soft Data Sources

Watershed simulation models such as the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) can be calibrated using “hard data” such as temporal streamflow observations; however, users may find upon examination of model outputs, that the calibrated models may not reflect actual watershed behavior. Thus, it is often advantageous to use “soft data” (i.e., qualitative knowledge such as expected denitrification rates that observed time series do not typically exist) to ensure that the calibrated model is representative of the real world. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of coupling SWAT‐Check (a post‐evaluation framework for SWAT outputs) and IPEAT‐SD (Integrated Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis Tool‐Soft & hard Data evaluation) to constrain the bounds of soft data during SWAT auto‐calibration. IPEAT‐SD integrates 59 soft data variables to ensure SWAT does not violate physical processes known to occur in watersheds. IPEAT‐SD was evaluated for two case studies where soft data such as denitrification rate, nitrate attributed from subsurface flow to total discharge ratio, and total sediment loading were used to conduct model calibration. Results indicated that SWAT model outputs may not satisfy reasonable soft data responses without providing pre‐defined bounds. IPEAT‐SD provides an efficient and rigorous framework for users to conduct future studies while considering both soft data and traditional hard information measures in watershed modeling.     

Evaluating Conservation Program Success with Landsat and SWAT

In the United States, many state and federally funded conservation programs are required to quantify the water quality benefits resulting from their efforts. The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of conservation practices subsidized by the Oklahoma Conservation Commission on phosphorus and sediment loads to Lake Wister. Conservation practices designed to increase vegetative cover in grazed pastures were evaluated using Landsat imagery and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Several vegetative indices were derived from Landsat imagery captured before and after the implementation of conservation practices. Collectively, these indicators provided an estimate of the change in vegetative soil cover attributable to conservation practices in treated fields. Field characteristics, management, and changes in vegetative cover were used in the SWAT model to simulate sediment and phosphorus losses before and after practice implementation. Overall, these conservation practices yielded a 1.9% improvement in vegetative cover and a predicted sediment load reduction of 3.5%. Changes in phosphorus load ranged from a 1.0% improvement to a 3.5% increase, depending upon initial vegetative conditions. The use of fertilizers containing phosphorus as a conservation practice in low-productivity pastures was predicted by SWAT to increase net phosphorus losses despite any improvement in vegetative cover. This combination of vegetative cover analysis and hydrologic simulation was a useful tool for evaluating the effects of conservation practices at the basin scale and may provide guidance for the selection of conservation measures subsidized in future conservation programs.     

The impact of enhanced ammonium sulphate inputs exceeding critical load on calluna vulgaris /peat soil microcosms

Ammonium sulphate at six concentrations in simulated precipitation has been applied weekly over two years to Calluna vulgaris growing in peat soil. The nitrogen deposition treatments were chosen to embrace and exceed critical load. The growth and composition of the Calluna and the changes over time in the chemistry of the peat soil and its soil solution were monitored. In spite of significant increases in foliar nitrogen concentration in new shoots, especially in the first year, growth did not increase significantly in response to nitrogen treatment. Several factors could be contributing to the lack of significant growth response. (1) Increasing ammonium input significantly acidified the soil solution, which could adversely effect growth directly. (2) Foliar calcium concentration was reduced significantly in both years by the ammonium sulphate treatments, and more calcium was undoubtedly lost from the rooting zone at higher nitrogen inputs. (3) Foliar phosphate declined significantly between the first and second year, so lack of growth response might also reflect a phosphorus limitation. There was a distinctly visible darkening of the leaves in response to increasing ammonium applications, especially for the first year's growth, and the chlorophyll a and b concentrations in leaves from new growth at the three highest nitrogen treatments were significantly (at P <0.05) higher than those for the control. The pigment concentrations fell markedly by the end of the second season, and treatment effects were much less consistent. It is suggested that pigment analysis therefore probably has little diagnostic value for assessing damage from pollutant nitrogen effects.     

Evaluating Sources of Indoor Air Pollution

Evaluation of Indoor air pollution problems requires an understanding of the relationship between sources, air movement, and outdoor air exchange. Research is underway to investigate these relationships. A three-phase program is being implemented: 1) Environmental chambers are used to provide source emission factors for specific indoor pollutants; 2) An IAQ (Indoor Air Quality) model has been developed to calculate indoor pollutant concentrations based on chamber emissions data and the air exchange and air movement within the indoor environment; and 3) An IAQ test house is used to conduct experiments to evaluate the model results. Examples are provided to show how this coordinated approach can be used to evaluate specific sources of indoor air pollution. Two sources are examined: 1) para-dichlorobenzene emissions from solid moth repellant; and 2) particle emissions from unvented kerosene heaters.

The evaluation process for both sources followed the three-phase approach discussed above. Para-dichlorobenzene emission factors were determined by small chamber testing at EPA’s Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory. Particle emission factors for the kerosene heaters were developed In large chambers at the J. B. Pierce Foundation Laboratory. Both sources were subsequently evaluated in EPA’s IAQ test house. The IAQ model predictions showed good agreement with the test house measurements when appropriate values were provided for source emissions, outside air exchange, in-house air movement, and deposition on “sink” surfaces.     

Metolachlor and chlorothalonil dissipation in gypsum-amended soil

This work focused on the interactive effects of the fungicide chlorothalonil (2,3,4,6-tetrachloro-1,3-benzendicarbonitrile) and gypsum on the persistence of the soil-residual herbicide metolachlor (2-chloro-N-(6-ethyl-o-tolyl)-N-[(1RS)-2-methoxy-1-methylethyl]acetamide). Gypsum application was included due to its widespread use on peanut (Arachis hypogaea). Both agricultural grade gypsum and reagent CaSO₄-2H₂O were tested. A laboratory soil incubation was conducted to evaluate interactive effects. Results indicated 1.5X greater metolachlor half-life (DT₅₀) in soil amended with chlorothalonil (37 d) as compared to control soil (25 d). The two gypsum sources alone increased metolachlor DT₅₀ to about 32 d and with the combination of chlorothalonil and gypsum, DT50 was 50 d, 2-fold greater than the control. Chlorothalonil dissipation was rapid (DT₅₀ < 4d). A possible explanation for metolachlor dissipation kinetics is a build-up of the chlorothalonil intermediate (4-hydroxychlorothalonil) which limited soil microbial activity and depleted glutathione S-transferase (GST) from chlorothalonil detoxification. Further information related to gypsum impacts is needed. Results confirm previous reports of chlorothalonil impeding metolachlor dissipation and showed the gypsum application extended persistence even longer. Farming practices, such as reducing metolachlor application rates, may need to be adjusted for peanut cropping systems where chlorothalonil and gypsum are used.