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An air quality modeling system was used to simulate the effects on ozone concentration in the northeast USA from climate changes projected through the end of the twenty-first century by the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR’s) parallel climate model, a fully coupled general circulation model, under a higher and a lower scenario of future global changes in concentrations of radiatively active constituents. The air quality calculations were done with both a global chemistry-transport model and a regional air quality model focused on the northeast USA. The air quality simulations assumed no changes in regional anthropogenic emissions of the chemical species primarily involved in the chemical reactions of ozone creation and destruction, but only accounted for changes in the climate. Together, these idealized global and regional model simulations provide insights into the contribution of possible future climate changes on ozone. Over the coming century, summer climate is projected to be warmer and less cloudy for the northeast USA. These changes are considerably larger under the higher scenario as compared with the lower. Higher temperatures also increase biogenic emissions. Both mean daily and 8-h maximum ozone increase from the combination of three factors that tend to favor higher concentrations: (1) higher temperatures change the rates of reactions and photolysis rates important to the ozone chemistry; (2) lower cloudiness (higher solar radiation) increases the photolysis reaction rates; and (3) higher biogenic emissions increase the concentration of reactive species. Regional model simulations with two cumulus parameterizations produce ozone concentration changes that differ by approximately 10%, indicating that there is considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of changes due to uncertainties in how physical processes should be parameterized in the models. However, the overall effect of the climate changes simulated by these models – in the absence of reductions in regional anthropogenic emissions – would be to increase ozone concentrations.  相似文献   
2.
Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Environmental and societal factors such asair quality, water quality andavailability, land use changes andexpanding urbanization are alreadyaffecting human health and welfare,agriculture, and natural ecosystems in theMidwestern United States. Over thiscentury, these existing stresses willlikely be exacerbated by climate changesresulting from human activities. It isessential that policy decisions aimed atpreserving the well-being of a region beinformed by a good understanding of theregion's climate, how climate might change,and the uncertainties inherent in futureprojections. Recent updates in climatemodeling expertise and an expanded view ofpossible non-intervention emissionscenarios have narrowed the range of changethat can be expected over the Midwestthroughout the next century in some ways,while broadening it in others. In contrastto previous studies, which generallyconsider a mid-range scenario for futureemissions, this study presents the range ofchange that would result from low to highscenarios for climate change. In this waywe account for uncertainties inanthropogenic forcing on climate change inthe region and quantify the potentialeffects of human actions on future climate.This analysis also combines the latestclimate model projections with historicalrecords of observed climate over the pastcentury, effectively placing potentialchanges in extreme event frequencies suchas heavy rainfall events and temperaturethreshold exceedances within the context ofobserved variability over the past century.The purpose of this study is to provide anupdated picture of the potential impacts ofclimate change on the Midwest to inform theimpact assessment and policy developmentcommunity. From the magnitude of thechanges projected by this study, it isclear that these must be included in futurepolicy decisions in order to ensure thesuccessful adaptation and survival ofexisting human and natural systems in theMidwest.  相似文献   
3.
Air quality in urban areas attracts great attention due to increasing pollutant emissions and their negative effects on human health and environment. Numerous studies, such as those by Mouilleau and Champassith (J Loss Prevent Proc 22(3): 316–323, 2009), Xie et al. (J Hydrodyn 21(1): 108–117, 2009), and Yassin (Environ Sci Pollut Res 20(6): 3975–3988, 2013) focus on the air pollutant dispersion with no buoyancy effect or weak buoyancy effect. A few studies, such as those by Hu et al. (J Hazard Mater 166(1): 394–406, 2009; J Hazard Mater 192(3): 940–948, 2011; J Civ Eng Manag (2013)) focus on the fire-induced dispersion of pollutants with heat buoyancy release rate in the range from 0.5 to 20 MW. However, the air pollution source might very often be concentrated and intensive, as a consequence of the hazardous materials fire. Namely, transportation of fuel through urban areas occurs regularly, because it is often impossible to find alternative supply routes. It is accompanied with the risk of fire accident occurrences. Accident prevention strategies require analysis of the worst scenarios in which fire products jeopardize the exposed population and environment. The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of wind flow on air pollution and human vulnerability to fire products in a street canyon. For simulation of the gasoline tanker truck fire as a result of a multivehicle accident, computational fluid dynamics large eddy simulation method has been used. Numerical results show that the fire products flow vertically upward, without touching the walls of the buildings in the absence of wind. However, when the wind velocity reaches the critical value, the products touch the walls of the buildings on both sides of the street canyon. The concentrations of carbon monoxide and soot decrease, whereas carbon dioxide concentration increases with the rise of height above the street canyon ground level. The longitudinal concentration of the pollutants inside the street increases with the rise of the wind velocity at the roof level of the street canyon.  相似文献   
4.
Regional climate change projections for the Northeast USA   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Climate projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales are essential to assess potential future climate change impacts on climatologically diverse regions such as the northeast United States. Here, we show how both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods applied to relatively coarse-scale atmosphere-ocean general circulation model output are able to improve simulation of spatial and temporal variability in temperature and precipitation across the region. We then develop high-resolution projections of future climate change across the northeast USA, using IPCC SRES emission scenarios combined with these downscaling methods. The projections show increases in temperature that are larger at higher latitudes and inland, as well as the potential for changing precipitation patterns, particularly along the coast. While the absolute magnitude of change expected over the coming century depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing, significantly higher increases in temperature and in winter precipitation are expected under a higher as compared to lower scenario of future emissions from human activities.  相似文献   
5.
The intercontinental transport of aerosols and photochemical oxidants from Asia is a crucial issue for air quality concerns in countries downwind of the significant emissions and concentrations of pollutants occurring in this important region of the world. Since the lifetimes of some important pollutants are long enough to be transported over long distance in the troposphere, regional control strategies for air pollution in downwind countries might be ineffective without considering the effects of long-range transport of pollutants from Asia. Field campaigns provide strong evidence for the intercontinental transport of Asian pollutants. They, together with ground-based observations and model simulations, show that the air quality over parts of North America is being affected by the pollutants transported from Asia. This paper examines the current understanding of the intercontinental transport of gases and aerosols from Asia and resulting effects on air quality, and on the regional and global climate system.  相似文献   
6.
The six mainstem reservoirs in the Missouri River basin (MRB) are managed mainly to prevent flooding from snowmelt and heavy rainfall, a goal for which the interannual variabilities of precipitation ( P ), evapotranspiration ( ET ), and surface air temperature ( T air ) are vitally important. We tested the hypothesis that under the expected higher variability owing to global climate change, the months with the highest contributions to the interannual variability of P , ET , and T air in the MRB will remain unchanged and quantified likely temporal trends in these quantities. Using high-resolution, downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensemble data sets, we compared the multi-year ratio of monthly and annual interannual variability and temporal trends in P , ET , and T air during 2011–2020 with three future decades. Results showed that the 6 months with the highest interannual variability in P and ET (April–September) are the same in all four decades. However, for T air , only 4 months (December–March) retain their status as highly variable throughout the four decades; September and October variability is exceeded by the variability in other months. This implies that, compared to P and ET , the cyclical change in the probabilities of T air in the MRB is less stable under future global climate change. This finding can be used to consider the need to alter existing strategies for reservoir release while minimizing the likelihood of aggravating flooding below the reservoirs.  相似文献   
7.
Only recently, within a few decades, have we realized that humanity significantly influences the global environment. In the early 1980s, atmospheric measurements confirmed basic concepts developed a decade earlier. These basic concepts showed that human activities were affecting the ozone layer. Later measurements and theoretical analyses have clearly connected observed changes in ozone to human-related increases of chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere. As a result of prompt international policy agreements, the combined abundances of ozone-depleting compounds peaked in 1994 and ozone is already beginning a slow path to recovery. A much more difficult problem confronting humanity is the impact of increasing levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases on global climate. The processes that connect greenhouse gas emissions to climate are very complex. This complexity has limited our ability to make a definitive projection of future climate change. Nevertheless, the range of projected climate change shows that global warming has the potential to severely impact human welfare and our planet as a whole. This paper evaluates the state of the scientific understanding of the global change issues, their potential impacts, and the relationships of scientific understanding to policy considerations.  相似文献   
8.
The papers in this Special Issue are the primary technical underpinnings for the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA), an integrated regional-scale assessment of projected climate change, impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation across the US Northeast. The consequences of future pathways of greenhouse gas emissions on projected climate and impacts across climate-sensitive sectors is assessed by using downscaled projections from three global climate models under both higher (Alfi) and lower (B1) emissions scenarios. The findings illustrate that near-term reductions in emissions can greatly reduce the extent and severity of regionally important impacts on natural and managed ecosystems and public health in the latter half of this century, and increase the feasibility that those impacts which are now unavoidable can be successfully managed through adaptation.  相似文献   
9.
Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.  相似文献   
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