Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem)

Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM₁₀ observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM₁₀]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM₁₀] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model’s erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM₁₀] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model’s performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM₁₀] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM₁₀] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM₁₀] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM₁₀], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and observations, additional research in both the windblown dust emissions model and the weather research/physicochemical model is called for.

Implications: While many dust storms can be considered to be natural, in semi-arid climates such storms often have an anthropogenic component in their sources of dust. Applying the natural, exceptional events policy to these storms with strong signatures of anthropogenic sources would appear not only to be misguided but also to stifle genuine regulatory efforts at remediation. Those dust storms that have resulted, in part, from passage over abandoned farm land should no longer be considered “natural”; policymakers and lawmakers need to compel the owners of such land to reduce its potential for windblown dust.     

The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

(Dis)connected communities and sustainable place-making

Why, despite a recent surge in the UK in “sustainable communities” policy discourse, do so many community-led sustainability initiatives remain fragmented, marginal and disconnected from local government strategies? How can community- and government-led sustainability initiatives be better integrated such that they add significantly to a denser matrix and cluster of sustainable places? These questions, we argue, lie at the heart of current sustainable place-making debates. With particular reference to two spatial scales of analysis and action, the small town of Stroud, England and the city of Cardiff, Wales, we explore the twin processes of disconnection and connection between community sustainability activists and local state actors. We conclude that whilst there will always remain a need for community groups to protect the freedom which comes from acting independently, for community activists and policy-makers alike, there are nevertheless a series of mutual benefits to be had from co-production. However, in setting out these benefits we also emphasise the dual need for local government to play a much more nuanced, integrative and facilitatory role, in addition to, but separate from, its more traditional regulatory role.     

Novel mesoporous microspheres of Al and Ni doped LMO spinels and their performance as cathodes in secondary lithium ion batteries

A facile, scalable, and solution-based technique is used to fabricate Al and Ni-doped (LiAl_0.1Mn_1.9O₄ and LiAl_0.1Ni_0.1Mn_1.8O₄) microspheres of lithium manganese oxide (LMO) spinels for use as reversible cathode materials for lithium ion batteries (LIBs). The spheres of the two samples exhibit different porosities. Cells with these LMO-based cathodes are then cycled between 4.5 V and 2 V to study their stabilities while simultaneously being subjected to the undesirable Jahn-Teller distortion that occurs around the ~3 V regime. The LiAl_0.1Mn_1.9O₄ (LAMO) and the LiAl_0.1Ni_0.1Mn_1.8O₄ (LANMO) cells exhibit comparable open circuit voltages (OCV) of 2.94 V and 2.97 V, respectively. During cell cycling, the LAMO cell exhibits a maximum specific capacity of 122.51 mAh g^?1 with a capacity fade of 65.35% after 75 cycles. The LiAl_0.1Ni_0.1Mn_1.8O₄ (LAMO) sample fares better and exhibits a maximum of 140.49 mAh g^?1 and a capacity drop of 52.59%. Detailed structural studies indicate that Ni doping and the greater degree of porosity of the LANMO sample to be a stabilizing factor. This is further confirmed by cyclic voltammetry (CV) and AC impedance spectra analysis.     

Conservation of indigenous plants to support community livelihoods: the MGU – Useful Plants Project

Through the MGU – Useful Plants Project (2007–2015) led by the Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, high-quality seed collections and research information have been gathered on useful indigenous plants selected by communities in Botswana, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, and Mexico. Local communities were trained in seed conservation, plant propagation, and planting activities, while revenue generation was promoted directly through the sustainable use of plants and plant products and indirectly through wider environmental and cultural services. The success of this project was determined by its participative approach, involving local communities in plant conservation activities and using plant research to support it. However, the promotion of sustainable use and income generation highlighted issues that confirmed the importance of using a ‘holistic approach’ to address the objective of poverty reduction and contribute to improved livelihoods in the communities.     

Shiny cowbirds share foster mothers but not true mothers in multiply parasitized mockingbird nests

Obligate brood parasitic birds, such as cowbirds, evade parental care duties by laying their eggs in the nests of other species. Cowbirds are assumed to avoid laying repeatedly in the same nest so as to prevent intrabrood competition between their offspring. However, because searching for host nests requires time and energy, laying more than one egg per nest might be favoured where hosts are large and can readily rear multiple parasites per brood. Such ‘repeat parasitism’ by females would have important consequences for parasite evolution because young parasites would then incur indirect fitness costs from behaving selfishly. We investigated shiny cowbird (Molothrus bonariensis) parasitism of a large host, the chalk-browed mockingbird (Mimus saturninus), in a population where over 70 % of the parasitized mockingbird nests receive multiple cowbird eggs. We assessed egg maternity directly, using cameras at nests to film the laying of individually-marked females. We also supplemented video data with evidence from egg morphology, after confirming that each female lays eggs of a consistent appearance. From 133 eggs laid, we found that less than 5 % were followed by the same female visiting the nest to lay again or to puncture eggs. Multiple eggs in mockingbird nests were instead the result of different females, with up to eight individuals parasitizing a single brood. Thus, while cowbird chicks regularly share mockingbird nests with conspecifics, these are unlikely to be their maternal siblings. Our results are consistent with shiny cowbird females following a one-egg-per-nest rule, even where hosts can rear multiple parasitic young.     

Investigation of low-level <Superscript>242</Superscript>Pu contamination on nutrition disturbance and oxidative stress in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Solanum tuberosum</Emphasis> L.

Plutonium associated with higher molecular weight molecules is presumed to be poorly mobile and hardly plant available. In our present study, we investigate the uptake and effects of Pu treatments on Solanum tuberosum plants in amended Hoagland medium at concentrations of [²⁴²Pu] = 100 and 500 nm, respectively. We found a direct proof of oxidative stress in the plants caused by these rather low concentrations. For the confirmation of oxidative stress, we explored the production of nitric oxide (NO) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) by epifluorescence microscopy. Oxidative stress markers like lipid peroxidation and superoxide radicals (O₂ ^??) are monitored through histochemical analysis. The biochemical parameters i.e. chlorophyll and carotenoids are measured as an indicator of cellular damage in the tested plants including the enzymatic parameters such as catalase and glutathione reductase. From our work, we conclude that Pu in low concentration has no significant effects on the uptake of many trace and macroelements. In contrast, the content of O₂ ^?? , malondialdehyde (MDA), and H₂O₂ increases with increasing Pu concentration in the solution, while the opposite effects was found for NO, catalase, and glutathione reductase. These findings prove that even low concentration of Pu regulates ROS production and generate oxidative stress in S. tuberosum L.     

Darwin’s “tug-of-war” vs. starlings’ “horse-racing”: how adaptations for sequential encounters drive simultaneous choice

Charles Darwin aided his private decision making by an explicit deliberation, famously deciding whether or not to marry by creating a list of points in a table with two columns: “Marry” and “Not Marry”. One hundred seventy-two years after Darwin’s wedding, we reconsider whether this process of choice, under which individuals assign values to their options and compare their relative merits at the time of choosing (the tug-of-war model), applies to our experimental animal, the European Starling, Sturnus vulgaris. We contrast this with the sequential choice model that postulates that decision-makers make no comparison between options at the time of choice. According to the latter, behaviour in simultaneous choices reflects adaptations to contexts with sequential encounters, in which the choice is whether to take an opportunity or let it pass. We postulate that, in sequential encounters, the decision-maker assigns (by learning) a subjective value to each option, reflecting its payoff relative to background opportunities. This value is expressed as latency and/or probability to accept each opportunity as opposed to keep searching. In simultaneous encounters, choice occurs through each option being processed independently, by a race between the mechanisms that generate option-specific latencies. We describe these alternative models and review data supporting the predictions of the sequential choice model.     

Incorporating low-resolution historic species location data decreases performance of distribution models

Developing robust species distribution models is important as model outputs are increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and management decisions. A largely overlooked component of model assessment and refinement is whether to include historic species occurrence data in distribution models to increase the data sample size. Data of different temporal provenance often differ in spatial accuracy and precision. We test the effect of inclusion of historic coarse-resolution occurrence data on distribution model outputs for 187 species of birds in Australian tropical savannas. Models using only recent (after 1990), fine-resolution data had significantly higher model performance scores measured with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) than models incorporating both fine- and coarse-resolution data. The drop in AUC score is positively correlated with the total area predicted to be suitable for the species (R² = 0.163-0.187, depending on the environmental predictors in the model), as coarser data generally leads to greater predicted areas. The remaining unexplained variation is likely to be due to the covariate errors resulting from resolution mismatch between species records and environmental predictors. We conclude that decisions regarding data use in species distribution models must be conscious of the variation in predictions that mixed-scale datasets might cause.     

Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.