Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Detection Method for Avian Influenza Viruses in Water

Recent events have shown that humans may become infected with some pathogenic avian influenza A viruses (AIV). Since soil and water, including lakes, rivers, and seashores, may be contaminated by AIV excreted by birds, effective methods are needed for monitoring water for emerging viruses. Combining water filtration with molecular methods such as PCR is a fast and effective way for detecting viruses. The objective of this study was to apply a convenient method for the detection of AIV in natural water samples. Distilled water and lake, river, and seawater were artificially contaminated with AIV (H5N3) and passed through a filter system. AIV was detected from filter membrane by real-time RT-PCR. The performance of Zetapor, SMWP, and Sartobind D5F membranes in recovering influenza viruses was first evaluated using contaminated distilled water. SWMP, which gave the highest virus recoveries, was then compared with a pre-filter combined GF/F filter membrane in a trial using natural water samples. In this study, the cellulose membrane SMWP was found to be practical for recovery of AIVs in water. Viral yields varied between 62.1 and 65.9% in distilled water and between 1 and 16.7% in natural water samples. The borosilicate glass membrane GF/F combined with pre-filter was also feasible in filtering natural water samples with viral yields from 1.98 to 7.33%. The methods described can be used for monitoring fresh and seawater samples for the presence of AIV and to determine the source of AIV transmission in an outbreak situation.     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.     

Urinary 8-oxo-7, 8-dihydro-2′-deoxyguanosine concentrations after frying of bacon,a pilot study

Cooking fumes contain compounds that may give rise to oxidative stress and mutations when inhaled. The aim of this study was to evaluate if cooking fumes from frying of bacon induce oxidative stress by measurement of urinary 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine, a marker of oxidatively damaged DNA. Three non-smoking women fried bacon for 3 h. Urine samples were taken as early morning void at the same time on four days; the morning before frying, the morning after first frying, the morning after three days of frying and one week after first urine sample. 8-Oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine, 1-hydroxypyrene and 2-hydroxyphenanthrene, metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, were measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry/mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). 8-Oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine correlated weakly with concentrations of 1-hydroxypyrene (r = 0.31, p = 0.042), but it did not correlate with 2-hydroxyphenanthrene (r = ?0.074; p = 0.64). Average urinary 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2 deoxyguanosine concentrations increased from the day before frying (16.3 ± 4.2 nmol/L) to the third day of frying (26.2 ± 10.2 nmol/L), although not statistically significantly. Our pilot study shows that frying of bacon may result in increased oxidative stress which further emphasises the possible carcinogenic potential of cooking fumes.     

What Can Funders Do to Better Link Science with Decisions? Case Studies of Coastal Communities and Climate Change

Many reports and studies have noted that a significant portion of problem-oriented coastal science does not actually link to decisions. Here, three competitively funded project case studies are studied to determine what funders can and should do to better link science with decisions. The qualitative analysis used for this study indicates that the studied program was seen as being unusually attentive to the issue of linking science to decisions, as opposed to simply generating new knowledge. Nevertheless, much of the data indicate that funders can and should do more. Three ideas figured most prominently in the qualitative data: (1) funders should do more to ensure that the problem itself is defined more thoroughly with people who are envisioned as potential users of the science; (2) funders need to allocate more resources and attention to communicating effectively (with users) throughout the project; and (3) funders need to demand more engagement of users throughout the project. These findings have important implications for how funders review and support science, especially when competitive processes are used. Most importantly, funders should adjust what kind of science they ask for. Secondly, funders need to change who is involved in the review process. Currently, review processes focus on knowledge generation, which means that the reviewers themselves have expertise in that area. Instead, review panels should be balanced between those who focus on knowledge generation and those who focus on linking knowledge to decisions; this is a separate but critical discipline currently left out of the review process.     

Reviving wood-pastures for biodiversity and people: A case study from western Estonia

Wood-pastures are associated with high cultural and biodiversity values in Europe. However, due to their relatively low productivity, large areas of wood-pastures have been lost over the last century. In some areas, incentive schemes have been developed to revive wood-pastures. We investigated the effects of one such scheme in western Estonia. We compared the structure of grazed wood-pastures (old and restored) to those of abandoned wood-pastures and ungrazed forest stands to explore the effects of management, and conducted interviews with 24 farmers to investigate their motivations to carry out the management. We found a positive influence of active management on the semi-open structure of wood-pastures. Financial support was vital for management, but personal values related to tradition also played an important role. The interviewees differed widely in their range of motivations, suggesting that other strategies in addition to financial incentives would further improve the management of wood-pastures in the region.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0719-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Chemical composition and properties of ashes from combustion plants using Miscanthus as fuel

Miscanthus giganteus is one of the energy crops considered to show potential for a substantial contribution to sustainable energy production. In the literature there is little data available about the chemical composition of ashes from the combustion of Miscanthus and practically no data about their physical properties. However, for handling, treatment and utilization of the ashes this information is important. In this study ashes from two biomass combustion plants using Miscanthus as fuel were investigated. The density of the ashes was 2230 ± 35 kg/m~3, which was similar to the density of ashes from straw combustion. Also the bulk densities were close to those reported for straw ashes. The flowability of the ashes was a little worse than the flowability of ashes from wood combustion. The measured heavy metal concentrations were below the usual limits for utilization of the ashes as soil conditioner. The concentrations in the bottom ash were similar to those reported for ash from forest residue combustion plants. In comparison with cyclone fly ashes from forest residue combustion the measured heavy metal concentrations in the cyclone fly ash were considerably lower. Cl-, S and Zn were enriched in the cyclone fly ash which is also known for ashes from wood combustion. In comparison with literature data obtained from Miscanthus plant material the concentrations of K, Cl-and S were lower.This can be attributed to the fact that the finest fly ash is not collected by the cyclone de-dusting system of the Miscanthus combustion plants.