Statistical accuracy for estimations of large wood blockage in a reservoir environment

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The blockage of weirs or bridges by in-stream wood can reduce the flood discharge capacity, leading to hazardous situations. To assess the related risk, blocking...     

Wildland–Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.     

Heavy metal pattern and solute concentration in soils along the oldest highway of the world – the AVUS Autobahn

Highways and main roads are a potential source of contamination for the surrounding environment. High traffic rates result in elevated heavy metal concentrations in road runoff, soil and water seepage, which has attracted much attention in the recent past. Nonetheless, investigations of pollutants in roadside soils are still a subject of major interest due to the rapid development of traffic systems and increasing traffic all over the world. The accumulation of the heavy metals Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in soils along the oldest federal highway of the world has been studied by sampling a roadside transect of 125 by 10?m. In addition, heavy metal concentrations of Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, Ni and Cr in soil solutions from different distances (2.5, 5 and 10?m) from the hard shoulder of the highway and from three soil depths (10, 30, and 50?cm) were investigated. The results show that heavy metal concentrations are up to 20 times increased compared to the geochemical background levels and a reference site of 800-m distance from the roadside. Soil matrix concentrations in the topsoil (0-10?cm) mostly exceeded the precautionary values of the German Federal Soil Protection and Contamination Ordinance (BBodSchV). The concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn in the soil matrix tended to decrease with distance from the roadside edge, whereas the concentrations in the soil solution increased at a distance of 10?m onwards due to a lower soil pH. Because of both high pH values and a high sorption capacity of the soils, soil solution concentrations seldom exceeded the trigger values of the German Federal Soil Protection and Contamination Ordinance (BBodSchV) for transferring soil solution to groundwater.     

Chemical- and effect-oriented exposomics: Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR)

Exposomic studies of the rapidly changing environment of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) after its impounding is elaborated as a novel field of human and environmental research. Molecular exposomics is focused on the measure of all exposures to molecules and especially persistent organic pollutants-like compounds are of emerging interest due to their lifetime existence in the environment and humans. Theoretical considerations in general and particular for the TGR are deduced and presented using quantitative approaches for this research field. Since exposomics is strongly time-dependent, a theory is presented to link extension of exposure, time, and related effects. Similarity to the first law of thermodynamics is outlined. On top of this, the integrated use of biomarkers is presented employing chemical analysis for biomarkers of exposure and effects, biomarkers in vivo, in vitro approaches and the link between chemical mixtures, and the onset of disease and lethality. Besides real organisms, also virtual organisms are favored to act as well-defined sub-compartments such as fat of biota and with respect to time of exposure. Exposomics is the perspective of risk evaluation and chronic exposures in the running century. It needs novel theories, approaches, and integrated action between medical and environmental disciplines. The existing knowledge about molecular stressors has to be assembled and put into a context especially with respect not only to time resp. lifetime exposure of humans but also eco-toxicological findings by using highly conserved phylogenetic mechanisms to enable links between human and risks of environmental biota. The TGR is a good example not only to employ biomonitoring of real but also virtual organisms due to the lack of established ecotopes in this changing environment so far. Progress in understanding long-term risks requires a proper theory as well as novel tools such as virtual organisms. On top, multidisciplinary approaches and the utilization of existing knowledge about the exposure of the environment and humans have to be merged and directed into mutual concepts. Effect-oriented and chemical analysis must be designed time-oriented to determine lifetime exposures of mankind and nature. Perspectively, a first attempt about exposomic theory and concepts is proposed and has to be developed experimentally further enclosing virtual besides of real organisms and compartments. Environmental and human exposomics have to be considered as a unified global issue in order to effectively utilize their mutual existing knowledge most effectively. The TGR is a challenging model system aiming this objective.     

Temperature effects on vital rates of different life stages and implications for population growth of Baltic sprat

Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus S.) is a key species in the pelagic ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. Most stocks of small pelagic species are characterized by natural, fishery-independent fluctuations, which make it difficult to predict stock development. Baltic sprat recruitment is highly variable, which can partly be related to climate-driven variability in hydrographic conditions. Results from experimental studies and field observations demonstrate that a number of important life history traits of sprat are affected by temperature, especially the survival and growth of early life stages. Projected climate-driven warming may impact important processes affecting various life stages of sprat, from survival and development during the egg and larval phases to the reproductive output of adults. This study presents a stage-based matrix model approach to simulate sprat population dynamics in relation to different climate change scenarios. Data obtained from experimental studies and field observations were used to estimate and incorporate stage-specific growth and survival rates into the model. Model-based estimates of population growth rate were affected most by changes in the transition probability of the feeding larval stage at all temperatures (+0, +2, +4, +6?°C). The maximum increase in population growth rate was expected when ambient temperature was elevated by 4?°C. Coupling our stage-based model and more complex, biophysical individual-based models may reveal the processes driving these expected climate-driven changes in Baltic Sea sprat population dynamics.     

Oberflächennahe Rohstoffe und Öffentlichkeit

The public has been sensitized to the fact that due to the shortage of energy resources, mainly hydrocarbons, energy policy difficulties and the interrelated problems of nuclear energy, nuclear waste disposal and environmental protection, have developed. However, what is realized much less is the fact that mineral resources are also not available in unlimited amounts in some industrial nations, especially near-surface industrial minerals, whose prices are often very sensitive to transport costs. This can be explained only partly by geological conditions, but by limited access to the resources. By setting its goals too high, society risks in many respects the fulfillment of its desires for improving the standard of living.