A mass budget of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in San Francisco Bay, CA

A mass budget of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in San Francisco Bay is developed as a first step towards understanding the local sources and transport processes controlling PBDE fate in a highly urbanized estuary. Extensive monitoring of PBDEs in estuarine water and sediment, freshwater tributaries, air, and wastewater effluents and sludges were integrated with a mass budget model to provide a synthetic view of these emerging contaminants. The Bay inventories of BDE 47 and BDE 209 in 2006 were estimated to be 33+/-3 kg and 153+/-45 kg, respectively. Empirically derived estimates of annual inputs of BDE 47 and BDE 209 from all quantifiable external sources ranged from 11 to 28 kg/y and 22 to 24 kg/y, respectively. BDE 47 loads were dominated by wastewater while runoff from local tributaries represented the largest contributor to BDE 209 loads. Model results suggest the Bay PBDE inventory is highly sensitive to changes in external loads, with degradation and outflow being the major processes governing PBDE fate. The mass budget presented provides a framework for integrating future monitoring and modeling efforts.     

Reconstructibility of Density Dependence and the Conservative Assessment of Extinction Risks

Abstract: The probability of extinction is sensitive to the presence and character of density dependence controlling the dynamics of a population. This means that our capacity to estimate a population's risks of extinction under varying environmental conditions or competing management regimes is linked to our ability to reconstruct from data the density-dependence relationships governing the natural dynamics, especially when data do not reveal a trend of population growth or decline. In an example using Gadus morhua , we show that even 10- or 20-year data sets are too short to make precise estimates of these risks. We also observe, however, that under moderate or weak density dependence, the computed risks are lower than when density dependence is not included in the model. We propose, therefore, that when available data sets are insufficient for reconstructing reliable measurements of density dependence, conservative estimates of extinction probabilities can be made from models that simply omit density dependence.     

Integrating Landscape and Metapopulation Modeling Approaches: Viability of the Sharp-Tailed Grouse in a Dynamic Landscape

Abstract:  The lack of management experience at the landscape scale and the limited feasibility of experiments at this scale have increased the use of scenario modeling to analyze the effects of different management actions on focal species. However, current modeling approaches are poorly suited for the analysis of viability in dynamic landscapes. Demographic (e.g., metapopulation) models of species living in these landscapes do not incorporate the variability in spatial patterns of early successional habitats, and landscape models have not been linked to population viability models. We link a landscape model to a metapopulation model and demonstrate the use of this model by analyzing the effect of forest management options on the viability of the Sharp-tailed Grouse (  Tympanuchus phasianellus ) in the Pine Barrens region of northwestern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). This approach allows viability analysis based on landscape dynamics brought about by processes such as succession, disturbances, and silviculture. The landscape component of the model (LANDIS) predicts forest landscape dynamics in the form of a time series of raster maps. We combined these maps into a time series of patch structures, which formed the dynamic spatial structure of the metapopulation component (RAMAS). Our results showed that the viability of Sharp-tailed Grouse was sensitive to landscape dynamics and demographic variables such as fecundity and mortality. Ignoring the landscape dynamics gave overly optimistic results, and results based only on landscape dynamics (ignoring demography) lead to a different ranking of the management options than the ranking based on the more realistic model incorporating both landscape and demographic dynamics. Thus, models of species in dynamic landscapes must consider habitat and population dynamics simultaneously.     

Assessment of seasonal and spatial variations of physicochemical parameters and trace elements along a heavily polluted effluent-dominated stream

This study focuses on a heavily polluted effluent-dominated stream that passes through an industrialized region near Izmir, Turkey. The intermittent creek receives domestic and industrial discharges of Kemalpa?a District Center and its neighborhoods and more than 180 factories of the organized industrial zone. A monitoring campaign was conducted on the creek and samples were taken in two different seasons with distinct hydrological characteristics from 20 stations along the creek to quantify the quality status of water and sediment columns. A number of physicochemical parameters, heavy metals, and trace elements were measured by field and laboratory techniques to assess the status of creek’s water and sediment quality. The spatial and temporal variations were determined, and statistical tools were used to conduct an environmental forensic overview along the creek. A geo-accumulation index and a modified heavy metal pollution index were calculated to cumulatively assess the quality of sediment and water columns, respectively. The results revealed that the creek was under significant pollution load from the industrial zone where metal processing, food and beverage production, marble and natural stone manufacturing, and paper production are made. In particular, elements such as Co, Cu, Cd, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, and Zr were found to be above the surface water quality standard values. Similarly, B, Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Sn were determined to be in extreme levels in the sediment column with values exceeding the probable effect concentrations.     

Alkyl nitrate photochemistry during the tropospheric organic chemistry experiment

Alkyl nitrates (C₁–C₅) were measured at two sites (near urban and rural) in southeast England during the Tropospheric Organic Chemistry Experiment (TORCH). Methyl nitrate was the dominant species during both campaigns accounting for on average about one third of the total measured alkyl nitrates. High mixing ratios (>50 pptv) and variability of methyl nitrate were observed at the near urban site (TORCH1) that were not seen at the rural site (TORCH2) and which could not be explained by local photochemical production or direct emissions. The diurnal variation of methyl nitrate during TORCH1 showed a morning maximum that would be consistent with nighttime chemistry followed by transport to the surface by boundary layer dynamics. Similarly, elevated morning mixing ratios were also observed during TORCH2 although the magnitudes were much smaller. As a result, methyl nitrate could represent a tracer for nighttime chemistry seen at the ground the following day. At both campaigns, the dominant source of short chain alkyl nitrates and carbonyl precursor radicals (≤C₄) were from decomposition of larger compounds. The magnitude of the source increased with decreasing carbon number consistent with increasing total precursor abundance. Non-photochemical emissions of acetaldehyde and acetone could not be accounted for by automobile exhaust emissions alone and indicated that other direct sources are likely important in this environment.     

Small habitat matrix: How does it work?

We present herein our perspective of a novel Small Habitats Matrix (SHM) concept showing how small habitats on private lands are untapped but can be valuable for mitigating ecological degradation. Grounded by the realities in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, we model a discontinuous “stepping stones” linkage that includes both terrestrial and aquatic habitats to illustrate exactly how the SHM can be deployed. Taken together, the SHM is expected to optimize the meta-population vitality in monoculture landscapes for aerial, arboreal, terrestrial and aquatic wildlife communities. We also provide the tangible cost estimates and discuss how such a concept is both economically affordable and plausible to complement global conservation initiatives. By proposing a practical approach to conservation in the rapidly developing tropics, we present a perspective from “ground zero” that reaches out to fellow scientists, funders, activists and pro-environmental land owners who often ask, “What more can we do?”