Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Host preference of a symbiotic flatworm in relation to the ecology of littoral snails

Some polyclads associate with other marine invertebrates such as gastropods, but how these associations evolve is not well understood. This study examined the relationships between a polyclad, Stylochoplana pusilla, and six species of snails in 10 eulittoral sites in Mutsu Bay, northern Japan, in 2010 and 2011. Of the six potential host snail species, Monodonta labio was present at all sites and the prevalence of S. pusilla in the snails’ mantle cavities overall was 82.6 %. Four other snail species occurred at five or six sites in comparable densities, but of these, only Chlorostoma turbinatum and Omphalius rusticus had S. pusilla in their mantle cavities (prevalence of 42.0 and 15.4 %). A congener of M. labio, Monodonta neritoides, occurred at only one site and had no S. pusilla. The mantle, which provides habitat space for S. pusilla, was proportionally the longest in M. labio. In laboratory experiments, the flatworms preferentially entered M. labio over other snail species with the same mantle length. Observed vertical distributions of snails in the littoral zone indicate that M. labio is present in the eulittoral at both high and low tides, while C. turbinatum and O. rusticus are usually found in the sublittoral. In an evolutionary sense, the relationship between S. pusilla and its host may have developed as a mechanism for the flatworm to avoid predation by living in the eulittoral and to avoid desiccation by establishing commensal relationships with certain snails.     

Factors determining the hatching success of Antarctic krill <Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis> embryo: lipid and fatty acid composition

The present study addresses the effect of maternal diet on hatching success and condition of embryos and larvae of Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. Lipid and fatty acid content and composition were determined in field and laboratory samples. Developmental stages analyzed in embryos included: multiple-cell, gastrula, and limb-bud stages. Larval stages analyzed included: nauplius I, nauplius II, and metanauplius. Laboratory-reared embryos were spawned by gravid females incubated under three feeding groups: (1) phytoplankton mixture, (2) phytoplankton mixture and minced clam, and (3) phytoplankton mixture, minced clam, and commercial larval food. Hatching success was highest in group 3 (100%), lowest in group 1 (0%), and highly variable in field samples (0–48%). Lipid decreased slightly in embryos during embryonic development, while large decreases in lipid were found during nauplius development. High levels of 18:2(n-6), 20:4(n-6), and 22:6(n-3) observed with group 3 samples coincided with high hatching success in krill embryos. The ratio of 22:6(n-3)/20:5(n-3) also correlated to hatching success of embryos. The fatty acid profile of embryos in group 3 was similar to that of the field-collected embryos, reflecting the contribution of the commercial larval food in the maternal diet. In our study, the maternal diet was found to influence the fatty acid composition of embryos and in turn affects the hatching success of krill. Specific polyunsaturated fatty acids appeared to play important roles in embryogenesis in krill.     

Sources and distribution of hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) in Japanese river sediment

The distribution of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) in the sediment of three Japanese rivers with different characteristics (i.e., population and potential source in the catchment) was investigated and compared with the results estimated using a multimedia fate model (ChemCAN). High concentrations of HBCD in sediments in the range of 134-2060 ng g(-1) were found in a river receiving textile wastewater. This contrasted with the much lower concentrations (0.8-4.8 ng g(-1)) observed for an urban river (with a surrounding population of 1.8 million). The medians of observed HBCD concentrations in each river were close to those estimated based on the assumed input source (e.g., 1810 ng g(-1) for the observed median concentration, and 1436 ng g(-1) for the estimation, in the Kuzuryu River). These results demonstrated the importance of considering source contributions of HBCD, including both industrial and consumer sources, to aquatic environments, for reliable risk management.     

Perceived predation risk and mate defense jointly alter the outcome of territorial fights

Virtually all animal conflicts occur over access to mates or resources that affect survival, the two key components of fitness. In this paper, we report that predation risk and mate defense jointly affect the outcomes of contests between male sand crabs (Scopimera globosa) for burrows in which crabs mate and take shelter from predators. We observed the contests under three different conditions: (1) the natural condition of low predation risk and without the presence of a female; (2) the first experiment in which we imposed upon only intruding males the perception of predation risk—by digging them from their burrows, capturing and handling them, and placing them into other males’ burrows—to increase the value of the burrows for the intruders as shelter, and (3) the second experiment in which we repeated this treatment but increased the resource value of the burrow to the resident by placing a female in his burrow. The difference in body size between contestants was the main determinant of victory in all analyses. However, perceived predation risk also partly affected the outcomes of the fights: The motivated intruders were likely to win even when they were a little smaller than the residents. In addition, defense of a female had a significant effect on the outcomes of fights: The motivated residents won more fights than the motivated intruders, indicating that these two treatments caused asymmetric increases of the resource value. This is the first report of two external factors simultaneously raising resource value, affecting motivation of contestants, and altering the outcome of fights.     

Rapid hydropyrolysis of model compounds for epoxy resin oligomers and biomass tar

The rapid hydropyrolysis of model compounds for epoxy resin oligomers and biomass tar was carried out in a hydrogen atmosphere at 1073 K and 973 K. The assumed oligomers were partially pyrolyzed epoxy resin with biomass tar as solvent for the resin. The product distributions obtained from rapid hydropyrolysis of phenol and bisphenol-A are shown. We also discuss the effects of reaction temperature and hydrogen partial pressure on the product yield. In particular, more phenol was produced from bisphenol-A at 973 K than at 1073 K. The yield of methane, which was the final hydropyrolysis product, increased with increasing hydrogen partial pressure, whereas benzene and phenol were believed to behave as intermediate products in the hydropyrolysis reaction. The results suggest that phenol could be obtained with high selectivity from tar by optimizing the reaction conditions.     

A device for sampling the mud‐water interface in eutrophic lakes and bogs for residue analysis

Abstract

A tubular device has been developed making it possible to obtain layered samples of loosely aggregated, flocculent material from bogs or eutrophic lakes. The samples are up to 50 cm long and 15 cm in diameter. The sampler is free from protuberances and intact, layered samples can be taken. The tubular part of the sampler is about 85 em long, the walls of the lower 25‐cm portion harbouring a pneumatic closing mechanism which is controlled from above the water surface. An extendible handle for manipulating the sampler and for guiding it into place, is fastened to the upper end of the sampling tube. The performance and the operation of the sampler in the field are described.     

Spectroscopic analysis of NIR-dye sensitization in bulk heterojunction polymer solar cells

The photovoltaic conversion efficiency for near-infrared (NIR) sunlight is improved successfully by dye sensitization of bulk heterojunction polymer solar cells, in which the active layer was prepared by a ternary blend of poly(3-hexylthiophene), a fullerene derivative (1-(3-methoxycarbonyl)propyl-1-phenyl-[6,6]-methanofullerene), and an NIR dye, silicon phthalocyanine bis(trihexylsilyl oxide). The mechanism of the NIR-dye sensitization is studied by femtosecond transient absorption spectroscopy.