Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: air-land-freshwater-marine links: synthesis

Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway. At Storgama, increased precipitation in the growing season increased the fluxes of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in proportion to the water flux. In winter, soil temperatures near 0 degrees C, common under a snowpack, induced higher runoff of inorganic nitrogen (N) and lower runoff of TOC. By contrast, soil temperatures below freezing, caused by little snow accumulation (expected in a warmer world), reduced runoff of inorganic N, TON, and TOC. Long-term monitoring data showed that reduced snowpack can cause either decreased or increased N leaching, depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime, and winter discharge. Seasonal variation in TOC was mainly climatically controlled, whereas deposition of sulfate and nitrate (NO3) explained the long-term TOC increase. Upscaling to the river basin scale showed that the annual flux of NO3 will remain unchanged in response to climate change projections.     

Levels and trends of brominated flame retardants in the European environment

In this paper, we review those data which have recently become available for brominated flame retardants (particularly the brominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs) and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD)) in samples from the European environment. Environmental compartments studied comprise the atmosphere, sediments and soils, sewage sludges, and a variety of biological samples and food chains. This is currently a very active research area, and we cite over 70 studies reported in the literature during 2003-04. Findings include that the input of BDEs (especially BDE209) to the Baltic Sea by atmospheric deposition now exceeds that of PCBs by a factor of almost 40 times. Sewage sludge samples from both industrial and background locations show concentrations of BDEs, HBCD and tetrabromobisphenol-A (TBBP-A) that are of a similar order, indicating that the major source is from diffuse leaching from products into wastewater streams from users, households and industries generally. Point-sources from industries using BFRs (e.g. the textile industry) also generate local hot-spots. Sediment core studies identified the presence of two of the three PBDE formulations. The penta-mix formulation was clearly present from the beginning of the 1970s, but the deca-mix only appeared in the late 1970s. BDE183, BDE209 and HBCD were detected in peregrine falcons from Sweden and other birds feeding on terrestrial food chains. BDEs are found widely distributed in fish, including those from high mountain lakes in Europe, as a consequence of long-range atmospheric transport and deposition. A temporal trend study in archived freeze-dried mussels from the Seine estuary, France, indicated an exponential increase in BDE concentrations during the period 1982-1993, which levelled off in 1999 and 2001 and then began to decline after 2002. HBCD was detected in liver and blubber samples from harbour seals and harbour porpoises from the Wadden and North Seas, though very few animals yielded positive values for TBBP-A. There are difficulties in comparing data on summation operatorBDE from studies in which different suites of BDE congeners have been determined, and we suggest a common suite which will allow the study of all three commercial PBDE formulations.     

Structure-biodegradation relationships of polymeric materials. 1. Effect of degree of oxidation on biodegradability of carbohydrate polymers

The biodegradability of oxidized starch and inulin has been studied in relation to the degree of periodate oxidation to dialdehyde derivatives, by measuring oxygen consumption and mineralization to carbon dioxide. A higher degree of oxidation of dialdehyde starch and dialdchyde inulin results in a lower rate at which the polymers are biodegraded. It is demonstrated that the biodegradation rate of dialdehyde inulin derivatives decreases more than that of equivalent starch derivatives. The differences in biodegradation behavior between dialdehyde starch and dialdehyde inulin, resulting from comparable modifications, are discussed in terms of conformational structure.     

Exploring the efficiency of bias corrections of regional climate model output for the assessment of future crop yields in Europe

Excessive summer drying and reduced growing season length are expected to reduce European crop yields in future. This may be partly compensated by adapted crop management, increased CO₂ concentration and technological development. For food security, changes in regional to continental crop yield variability may be more important than changes in mean yields. The assessment of changes in regional and larger scale crop variability requires high resolution and spatially consistent future weather, matching a specific climate scenario. Such data could be derived from regional climate models (RCMs), which provide changes in weather patterns. In general, RCM output is heavily biased with respect to observations. Due to the strong nonlinear relation between meteorological input and crop yields, the application of this biased output may result in large biases in the simulated crop yield changes. The use of RCM output only makes sense after sufficient bias correction. This study explores how RCM output can be bias corrected for the assessment of changes in European and subregional scale crop yield variability due to climate change. For this, output of the RCM RACMO of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was bias corrected and applied within the crop simulation model WOrld FOod STudies to simulate potential and water limited yields of three divergent crops: winter wheat, maize and sugar beets. The bias correction appeared necessary to successfully reproduce the mean yields as simulated with observational data. It also substantially improved the year-to-year variability of seasonal precipitation and radiation within RACMO, but some bias in the interannual variability remained. This is caused by the fact that the applied correction focuses on mean and daily variability. The interannual variability of growing season length, and as a consequence the potential yields too, appeared even deteriorated. Projected decrease in mean crop yields is well in line with earlier studies. No significant change in crop yield variability was found. Yet, only one RCM is analysed in this study, and it is recommended to extend this study with more climate models and a slightly adjusted bias correction taking into account the variability of larger time scales as well.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.