Spatial and Seasonal Response of Municipal Water Use to Weather across the Contiguous U.S.

Weather variability has the potential to influence municipal water use, particularly in dry regions such as the western United States (U.S.). Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use and may be particularly responsive to weather, but little is known about how the expected magnitude of these responses varies across the U.S. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to monthly weather (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration [ET]) using monthly water deliveries for 229 cities in the contiguous U.S. Using city‐specific multiple regression and region‐specific models with city fixed effects, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated municipal water use was generally well‐explained by weather, with median adjusted R² ranging from 63% to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or ET. In response to a 1°C increase in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% in dry cities in winter and summer, respectively, with smaller changes in wet cities. Quantifying these responses allows urban water managers to plan for weather‐driven variability in water use.     

Introduced and cryptogenic species in Port Phillip Bay, Victoria, Australia

Port Phillip Bay (PPB) is a large (1,930 km²), temperate embayment in southern Victoria, Australia. Extensive bay-wide surveys of PPB have occurred since 1840. In 1995/1996 the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Centre for Research on Introduced Marine Pests (CRIMP) undertook an intensive evaluation of the region with the aims of developing a comprehensive species list of native and introduced biota and contrasting previous bay-wide assessments with a current field survey in order to detect new incursions and discern alterations to native communities. Two methods were used to meet these aims: a re-evaluation of regional museum collections and published research in PPB to identify and determine the timing of introductions; and field surveys for benthic (infauna, epifauna and encrusting) organisms between September 1995 to March 1996. One hundred and sixty introduced (99) and cryptogenic (61) species were identified representing over 13% of the recorded species of PPB. As expected, the majority of these are concentrated around the shipping ports of Geelong and Melbourne. Invasions within PPB appear to be increasing, possibly due to an increase in modern shipping traffic and an increase in aquaculture (historically associated with incidental introductions); however the records of extensive biological surveys suggest that this may, in part, be an artefact of sampling effort. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere studies, PPB (and Southern Hemisphere introductions in general) have significantly different suites of successfully invading taxa. PPB is presented as one of the most invaded marine ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Prenatal diagnosis and intrafamilial clinical heterogeneity of Fraser syndrome

Fraser syndrome (MIM 219000) is a rare disorder of autosomal recessive inheritance, characterized by the association of cryptophthalmos, syndactyly and genital abnormalities. Here we report on two cases of Fraser syndrome (cryptophthalmos syndrome) in a non-consanguineous couple, with variable expression in echographic, clinical and autopsy findings. Furthermore, we highlight the difficulties in prenatal diagnosis of Fraser syndrome. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Juberg–Hayward syndrome

Juberg–Hayward syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive syndrome characterised by the association of growth retardation, microcephaly, cleft lip and palate, and thumb and radial ray abnormalities. To date, no prenatal cases have been reported. Here, we report on the first prenatal case of Juberg–Hayward syndrome. The diagnosis was established following fetopathological study. Besides the cardinal features of the syndrome, this prenatal case was remarkable for the severity of the short arm malformation and by the finding of big toe agenesis and cerebral abnormalities including hydrocephalus, agenesis of corpus callosum, and cerebellar hypoplasia. We conclude that the diagnosis of Juberg–Hayward syndrome can be discussed prenatally following ultrasound diagnosis of the association of intrauterine growth restriction, microcephaly, thumb/radial anomalies, and cleft lip/palate. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suggested protocol for collecting, handling and preparing peat cores and peat samples for physical, chemical, mineralogical and isotopic analyses

For detailed reconstructions of atmospheric metal deposition using peat cores from bogs, a comprehensive protocol for working with peat cores is proposed. The first step is to locate and determine suitable sampling sites in accordance with the principal goal of the study, the period of time of interest and the precision required. Using the state of the art procedures and field equipment, peat cores are collected in such a way as to provide high quality records for paleoenvironmental study. Pertinent field observations gathered during the fieldwork are recorded in a field report. Cores are kept frozen at -18 degree C until they can be prepared in the laboratory. Frozen peat cores are precisely cut into 1 cm slices using a stainless steel band saw with stainless steel blades. The outside edges of each slice are removed using a titanium knife to avoid any possible contamination which might have occurred during the sampling and handling stage. Each slice is split, with one-half kept frozen for future studies (archived), and the other half further subdivided for physical, chemical, and mineralogical analyses. Physical parameters such as ash and water contents, the bulk density and the degree of decomposition of the peat are determined using established methods. A subsample is dried overnight at 105 degree C in a drying oven and milled in a centrifugal mill with titanium sieve. Prior to any expensive and time consuming chemical procedures and analyses, the resulting powdered samples, after manual homogenisation, are measured for more than twenty-two major and trace elements using non-destructive X-Ray fluorescence (XRF) methods. This approach provides lots of valuable geochemical data which documents the natural geochemical processes which occur in the peat profiles and their possible effect on the trace metal profiles. The development, evaluation and use of peat cores from bogs as archives of high-resolution records of atmospheric deposition of mineral dust and trace elements have led to the development of many analytical procedures which now permit the measurement of a wide range of elements in peat samples such as lead and lead isotope ratios, mercury, arsenic, antimony, silver, molybdenum, thorium, uranium, rare earth elements. Radiometric methods (the carbon bomb pulse of (14)C, (210)Pb and conventional (14)C dating) are combined to allow reliable age-depth models to be reconstructed for each peat profile.     

丁酰胆碱脂酶电势型生物传感器测定敌敌畏农药残留的抑制性研究

敌敌畏农药是一种广泛使用的中等毒性的有机磷农药,采用传统方法测定难以满足现场测定的需要。试验以戊二醛为交联剂制备了一种基于丁酰胆碱脂酶的ISFET(离子敏场效应管)生物传感器,并将其应用于敌敌畏的测定,考察了不同pH值、底物浓度、抑制时间等对传感器响应(电压)值的影响,得到了最佳测定条件。     

Polynomial Surrogates for Open-Channel Flows in Random Steady State

Assessing epistemic uncertainties is considered as a milestone for improving numerical predictions of a dynamical system. In hydrodynamics, uncertainties in input parameters translate into uncertainties in simulated water levels through the shallow water equations. We investigate the ability of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) surrogate to evaluate the probabilistic features of water level simulated by a 1-D hydraulic model (MASCARET) with the same accuracy as a classical Monte Carlo method but at a reduced computational cost. This study highlights that the water level probability density function and covariance matrix are better estimated with the polynomial surrogate model than with a Monte Carlo approach on the forward model given a limited budget of MASCARET evaluations. The gPC-surrogate performance is first assessed on an idealized channel with uniform geometry and then applied on the more realistic case of the Garonne River (France) for which a global sensitivity analysis using sparse least-angle regression was performed to reduce the size of the stochastic problem. For both cases, Galerkin projection approximation coupled to Gaussian quadrature that involves a limited number of forward model evaluations is compared with least-square regression for computing the coefficients when the surrogate is parameterized with respect to the local friction coefficient and the upstream discharge. The results showed that a gPC-surrogate with total polynomial degree equal to 6 requiring 49 forward model evaluations is sufficient to represent the water level distribution (in the sense of the \(\ell _2\) norm), the probability density function and the water level covariance matrix for further use in the framework of data assimilation. In locations where the flow dynamics is more complex due to bathymetry, a higher polynomial degree is needed to retrieve the water level distribution. The use of a surrogate is thus a promising strategy for uncertainty quantification studies in open-channel flows and should be extended to unsteady flows. It also paves the way toward cost-effective ensemble-based data assimilation for flood forecasting and water resource management.     

Optimizing angles of rooftop photovoltaics,ratios of solar to vegetated roof systems,and economic benefits,in Portland,Oregon, USA

This study analyzed insolation data to account for multiple scattering in calculating optimal tilt angles for stationary and seasonally moving photovoltaics on three different roof types in the US Pacific Northwest: vegetated roofs, white roofs, and dark roofs. Using these results, we modeled the energy savings for vegetated roofs and roofs covered in varying numbers of photovoltaic panels. We then calculated the net present value, internal rate of return, and other economic measures for all possible combinations of covering rooftops in mixes of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation, accounting for installation costs, proposed carbon taxes, stormwater management discounts, and other relevant factors. Our results quantify how, in the US Pacific Northwest and similar locations, photovoltaics produce higher returns on investment than do vegetated roofs for new buildings, while vegetated roofs produce better returns on investment than do photovoltaics for older buildings. This is important because in many areas, some buildings have photovoltaics when a vegetated roof would have been more cost and energy efficient, while other buildings have vegetated roofs when photovoltaics would have been more cost and energy efficient. Potential applications include modifying incentive programs and other policies to account properly for building age, use, and other relevant factors to ensure building owners make the most energy-efficient decisions between photovoltaic versus vegetated roof installation. Our research also demonstrates how positive returns on investment can be realized in the US Pacific Northwest and similar regions through vegetated roofs and photovoltaics provided they are each installed optimally.     

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.     

Consistency of defoliation data of the national training courses for the forest condition survey in Germany from 1992 to 2012

The consistency of visual assessment of tree defoliation, which represents the most widely used indicator for tree condition, has frequently been in the focus of scientific criticism. Thus, the objective of the present study was to examine the consistency of the defoliation data from the annual national training courses for the forest condition survey in Germany from 1992 to 2012. Defoliation assessments were carried out in stands of beech (Fagus sylvatica), oak (Quercus robur and Quercus petraea), Norway spruce (Picea abies), and pine (Pinus sylvestris). Among the observer teams, the absolute deviation from the observer mean of all years was ±4.4 % defoliation and the standard deviation of defoliation was ±5.5 %. On average, 94 % of the assessments were located within the ±10 % interval of deviation from the mean. Tree species-specific differences did not occur when all years were considered. A trend towards increasing consistency was observed from 1992 to 2012, in particular for oak and spruce. The deviation of defoliation assessments depended non-linearly on the level of defoliation with highest deviations at intermediate defoliations. In spite of high correlations and agreements among observers, systematic errors were determined in nearly every year. However, within-observer variances were higher than between-observer variances. The present study applied a three-way evaluation approach for the assessment of consistency and demonstrated that the visual defoliation assessment at the national training courses in general produced consistent data within Germany from 1992 to 2012.