Presence–Absence versus Abundance Data for Monitoring Threatened Species

Abstract:  Effective detection of population trend is crucial for managing threatened species. Little theory exists, however, to assist managers in choosing the most cost-effective monitoring techniques for diagnosing trend. We present a framework for determining the optimal monitoring strategy by simulating a manager collecting data on a declining species, the Chestnut-rumped Hylacola ( Hylacola pyrrhopygia parkeri ), to determine whether the species should be listed under the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List. We compared the efficiencies of two strategies for detecting trend, abundance, and presence–absence surveys, under financial constraints. One might expect the abundance surveys to be superior under all circumstances because more information is collected at each site. Nevertheless, the presence–absence data can be collected at more sites because the surveyor is not obliged to spend a fixed amount of time at each site. The optimal strategy for monitoring was very dependent on the budget available. Under some circumstances, presence–absence surveys outperformed abundance surveys for diagnosing the IUCN Red List categories cost-effectively. Abundance surveys were best if the species was expected to be recorded more than 16 times/year; otherwise, presence–absence surveys were best. The relationship between the strategies we investigated is likely to be relevant for many comparisons of presence–absence or abundance data. Managers of any cryptic or low-density species who hope to maximize their success of estimating trend should find an application for our results.     

The Value of Biodiversity in Reserve Selection: Representation, Species Weighting, and Benefit Functions

Abstract:  The limited availability of resources for conservation has led to the development of many quantitative methods for selecting reserves that aim to maximize the biodiversity value of reserve networks. In published analyses, species are often considered equal, although some are in much greater need of protection than others. Furthermore, representation is usually treated as a threshold: a species is either represented or not, but varying levels of representation over or under a given target level are not valued differently. We propose that a higher representation level should also have higher value. We introduce a framework for reserve selection that includes species weights and benefit functions for under- and overrepresentation (number of locations for each species). We applied the method to conservation planning for herb-rich forests in southern Finland. Our use of benefit functions and weighting changed the identity of about 50% of the selected sites at different funding levels and improved the representation of rare and threatened species. We also identified a small area of additional land that would substantially enhance the existing reserve network. We suggest that benefit functions and species weighting should be considered as standard options in reserve-selection applications.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

Declines in Common, Widespread Butterflies in a Landscape under Intense Human Use

Abstract:  Analyses of species' population losses typically show a dichotomy between strongly affected, rare, and localized species and apparently unaffected, common, and widespread species. We analyzed 16 years (1992–2007) of butterfly transect count data from The Netherlands in a reevaluation of the trends of common, widespread species. Fifty-five percent (11 of 20 species) of these species suffered severe declines in distribution and abundance. Overall, cumulative butterfly abundance declined by around 30%. Some of the species in decline used to be omnipresent in gardens and parks, and 2 of the species were previously considered agricultural pests. Based on their declines over the last 16 years, 2 of the 20 species ( Lasiommata megera and Gonepteryx rhamni ) reached endangered status in The Netherlands under the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) population-decline criterion, and 2 species ( Inachis io and Thymelicus lineola ) met vulnerable criterion. Butterflies in farmland, urban, and particularly woodland areas showed the largest decline in species abundance. The abundance of species associated with vegetation types found mainly in nature reserves (dunes, heathland, and, to a lesser extent, seminatural grassland) increased or remained stable. The decline of widespread species requires additional conservation strategies in the wider landscape.     

Value Plurality among Conservation Professionals

Abstract: Debate on the values that underpin conservation science is rarely based on empirical analysis of the values conservation professionals actually hold. We used Q methodology to investigate the values held by international conservation professionals who attended the annual Student Conference in Conservation Science at the University of Cambridge (U.K.) in 2008 and 2009. The methodology offers a quantitative means of examining human subjectivity. It differs from standard opinion surveys in that individual respondents record the way they feel about statements relative to other statements, which forces them to focus their attention on the issues they believe are most important. The analysis extracts the diverse viewpoints of the respondents, and factor analysis is used to reduce the viewpoints to a smaller set of factors that reflect shared ways of thinking. The junior conservation professionals attending the conference did not share a unifying set of core values; rather, they held a complex series of ideas and a plurality of opinions about conservation and how it should be pursued. This diversity of values empirically challenges recent proposals for conservation professionals to unite behind a single philosophy. Attempts to forge an artificial consensus may be counterproductive to the overall goals conservation professionals are pursuing.     

Determining Optimal Population Monitoring for Rare Butterflies

Abstract: Determining population viability of rare insects depends on precise, unbiased estimates of population size and other demographic parameters. We used data on the endangered St. Francis' satyr butterfly (Neonympha mitchellii francisci) to evaluate 2 approaches (mark–recapture and transect counts) for population analysis of rare butterflies. Mark–recapture analysis provided by far the greatest amount of demographic information, including estimates (and standard errors) of population size, detection, survival, and recruitment probabilities. Mark–recapture analysis can also be used to estimate dispersal and temporal variation in rates, although we did not do this here. Models of seasonal flight phenologies derived from transect counts (Insect Count Analyzer) provided an index of population size and estimates of survival and statistical uncertainty. Pollard–Yates population indices derived from transect counts did not provide estimates of demographic parameters. This index may be highly biased if detection and survival probabilities vary spatially and temporally. In terms of statistical performance, mark–recapture and Pollard–Yates indices were least variable. Mark–recapture estimates were less likely to fail than Insect Count Analyzer, but mark–recapture estimates became less precise as sampling intensity decreased. In general, count‐based approaches are less costly and less likely to cause harm to rare insects than mark–recapture. The optimal monitoring approach must reconcile these trade‐offs. Thus, mark–recapture should be favored when demographic estimates are needed, when financial resources enable frequent sampling, and when marking does not harm the insect populations. The optimal sampling strategy may use 2 sampling methods together in 1 overall sampling plan: limited mark–recapture sampling to estimate survival and detection probabilities and frequent but less expensive transect counts.     

Testing a GIS Model of Habitat Suitability for a Declining Grassland Bird

Demand for information that can be used to manage loggerhead shrikes has recently increased because of concern over declining populations and loss of open, non-forested habitat. A previously-developed habitat model was modified to predict shrike habitat quality on Fort Riley Military Reservation (FRMR) in Kansas. Shrike habitat suitability indices were calculated based on the amount of potential and usable foraging habitat, and the number of potential nesting sites within a specified area. Interpretation of high quality digital photographs was used to delineate land cover classes, hedgerows and tree counts. These data were entered into a geographic information system (GIS) as individual data sets. The shrike habitat model was then employed to produce a GIS database predicting low, moderate, and high quality shrike habitat throughout the Reservation. Model results indicated that 67% of the Reservation was suitable habitat for loggerhead shrikes. Although over 80% of FRMR was mapped as grassland, the presence of few to several isolated trees or hedgerows was identified as a key factor in modeling habitat suitability. The accuracy of the GIS model was 82% in predicting suitable (moderate and high quality) loggerhead shrike habitat using an independent set of 66 recent shrike observations. The number of potential nesting sites and percent cover of usable foraging habitat were significantly related to habitat suitability of the sites occupied by shrikes.     

Biological Consequences of Ecosystem Fragmentation: A Review

Abstract. Abstrack Resemcb on fragmented ecosystems bas focused mostly on the biogeograpbic consequences of the creation of habitat "islands" of diffrent size and bas provided little of practical value to managers Hom, ecosystem fragmentation causes large changes in thepbysfcal environment as well as biogeograpbic changes Fragmentation generally msults in a landscape that consists of remnant areas of native vegetation surrounded by a mdrlx of agricultural or other developed land As a mul fluxes of radiation, momentum (i.e., wind), water, and nutrients clcross the landscape are altered significantly. These in turn can haw important influences on the biota witbin remnant are- especially at or near the edge between the remnant and the surrounding matrix The isolatfon of remnant areas by clearing also bas important consequences for the biota These consequences vary with the time since isolatioq distance from other remnants, and degree of connectivity with other remnants The influences of pbysical and biogeographic changes are modified by the size, shape, and pition in the landscape of individual remnanQ witb larger remnants being less aduwsely affected by the jhapaentation process dynamics of remnant areas me predominantly driven by factors aris ing in tbe smunding krndscu Management of, and research on, fiagmented ecosystems sbould be directed at understanding and controlling tbese external influences as much as at tbe biota of tbe remnants themselves Tbere is a strong need to develop an integrated appmach to landsea management tbatplaces conservation merues in tbe context of tbe owrall landscape