Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Images of war: using satellite images for human rights monitoring in Turkish Kurdistan

In areas of war and armed conflict it is difficult to get trustworthy and coherent information. Civil society and human rights groups often face problems of dealing with fragmented witness reports, disinformation of war propaganda, and difficult direct access to these areas. Turkish Kurdistan was used as a case study of armed conflict to evaluate the potential use of satellite images for verification of witness reports collected by human rights groups. The Turkish army was reported to be burning forests, fields and villages as a strategy in the conflict against guerrilla uprising. This paper concludes that satellite images are useful to validate witness reports of forest fires. Even though the use of this technology for human rights groups will depend on some feasibility factors such as prices, access and expertise, the images proved to be key for analysis of spatial aspects of conflict and valuable for reconstructing a more trustworthy picture.     

A synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assay as an improved tool to detect thyroid hormone disturbance by endocrine disruptors and apolar sediment extracts

Amphibian metamorphosis assays are used to evaluate potential effects of endocrine disrupting compounds on the thyroid hormone axis. In this study, Xenopus laevis tadpoles are kept in a solution of 0.2% thiourea (TU) to arrest and synchronise them in their development. The advantage of this synchronized amphibian metamorphosis assays is that synchronised tadpoles are available at any time to start metamorphosis experiments, and experimental groups are much more homogenous at the start of experimental exposure compared with groups selected from an untreated pool of animals. The water volume per animal was kept constant throughout the experimental period to overcome the influence of declining numbers of animals per aquarium due to metamorphosis and mortality on the density dependent development of the remaining tadpoles. Clophen A50 (a technical PCB mixture), the single congener 3,3',4,4'-tetrachlorobiphenyl (PCB 77) and apolar sediment extracts that were previously tested positive in the T-Screen, an in vitro proliferation assay for thyroid hormone disruption, were tested in the Synchronized Amphibian Metamorphosis Assay. Endpoints studied were mortality, malformations, body weight, and percentage of metamorphosed froglets at the end of the 60-day experimental period, percentage of tadpoles in different developmental stages, and developmental stage-dependent awarded penalty points. Dietary exposure to Clophen A50 (0.2-50mg/kg food) resulted in a significant increased percentage of tadpoles that did not pass metamorphosis at concentrations higher than 2mg/kg food. Time until metamorphosis in those animals that were able to metamorphose after the 60-days experimental period was significantly decreased. Dietary exposure to PCB 77, a congener that can be readily metabolised, did not result in significant effects in any exposure group (2-500 microg/kg food). Apolar sediment extracts from two of the three sites that are contaminated with a wide variety of chemicals significantly decreased the percentage of metamorphosed animals and significantly increased the number of tadpoles that remained in early and late metamorphic stages. These effects already occurred when the extracts where diluted more than 1000 times (on an organic carbon base) compared to environmental concentrations. The rank of potency was comparable to results obtained with the T-screen. This suggests the presence of thyroid hormone disrupting compounds in the aquatic environment and possible effects of such compounds on animal development in the wild.     

Water and sustainable development

In this paper, it is proposed that water resources should be managed as an integral part of a nation's social and economic development. Water resources managers should broaden their scope of work to include an integrated management approach. Instead of the traditional 'supply oriented approach' in which they act in response to ever-increasing demands for water from different sectors of the economy, water resources management agencies should play a more active role in guiding and stimulating socioeconomic development through more efficient water use. Demand management should be an important tool which should go beyond the improvement of technical efficiencies. Most important is to develop economic and institutional approaches that accept charging for the full costs of the utilization and management of water resources. Implementation of such an approach will require more sectoral integration than is currently the case and will have considerable implications for organizations, staffing, institutional arrangements and corresponding capacity building.     

Upflow reactors for riparian zone denitrification

We used permeable reactive subsurface barriers consisting of a C source (wood particles), with very high hydraulic conductivities ( approximately 0.1-1 cm s(-1)), to provide high rates of riparian zone NO3-N removal at two field sites in an agricultural area of southwestern Ontario. At one site, a 0.73-m3 reactor containing fine wood particles was monitored for a 20-mo period and achieved a 33% reduction in mean influent NO3-N concentration of 11.5 mg L(-1) and a mean removal rate of 4.5 mg L(-1) d(-1) (0.7 g m(-2) d(-1)). At the second site, four smaller reactors (0.21 m3 each), two containing fine wood particles and two containing coarse wood particles, were monitored for a 4-mo period and were successful in attenuating mean influent NO3-N concentrations of 23.7 to 35.1 mg L(-1) by 41 to 63%. Mean reaction rates for the two coarse-particle reactors (3.2 and 7.8 mg L(-1) d(-1), or 1.5 and 3.4 g m(-2) d(-1)) were not significantly different (p > 0.2) than the rates observed in the two fine-particle reactors (5.0 and 9.9 mg L(-1) d(-1), or 1.8-3.5 g m(-2) d(-1)). A two-dimensional ground water flow model is used to illustrate how permeable reactive barriers such as these can be used to redirect ground water flow within riparian zones, potentially augmenting NO3- removal in this environment.     

Nitrogen and metals in two regions in Central Europe: Significant differences in accumulation in mosses due to land use?

The study was conducted to test the hypothesis that the regional variability of nitrogen (N) and metal accumulations in terrestrial ecosystems are due to historical and recent ways of landuse. To this end, two regions of Central Europe were selected for investigation: the Weser-Ems Region (WER) and the Euro Region Nissa (ERN). They were assumed to have land use-specific accumulation profiles. Thus, the metal and N accumulations in both regions were examined by means of geostatistically based comparative moss analysis. The sampling and chemical analysis of mosses were conducted in accordance with the convenient guidelines and methods, respectively. The spatial representativity of the sampling sites was computed by means of a land classification which was calculated for Europe by means of classification trees and GIS-techniques. The differences of deposition loads were tested for statistical significance with regard to time and space. The measurement values corroborated the decline of metal accumulation observed since the beginning of the European Metals in Mosses Surveys in 1990. The metal loads of the mosses in the ERN exceeded those in the WER significantly. The opposite holds true for the N concentrations: those in the WER were significantly higher than those in the ERN. The reduction of emissions from power plants, factories and houses was strongly correlated with the decline of deposition and bioaccumulation of metals. As proved by the European Metals in Mosses Surveys, this tendency is due to successful environmental policies. But no such success could be verified by monitoring the accumulation of N in mosses.