Patterns of houses and habitat loss from 1937 to 1999 in northern Wisconsin, USA.

Rural America is witnessing widespread housing development, which is to the detriment of the environment. It has been suggested to cluster houses so that their disturbance zones overlap and thus cause less habitat loss than is the case for dispersed development. Clustering houses makes intuitive sense, but few empirical studies have quantified the spatial pattern of houses in real landscapes, assessed changes in their patterns over time, and quantified the resulting habitat loss. We addressed three basic questions: (1) What are the spatial patterns of houses and how do they change over time; (2) How much habitat is lost due to houses, and how is this affected by spatial pattern of houses; and (3) What type of habitat is most affected by housing development. We mapped 27 419 houses from aerial photos for five time periods in 17 townships in northern Wisconsin and calculated the terrestrial land area remaining after buffering each house using 100- and 500-m disturbance zones. The number of houses increased by 353% between 1937 and 1999. Ripley's K test showed that houses were significantly clustered at all time periods and at all scales. Due to the clustering, the rate at which habitat was lost (176% and 55% for 100- and 500-m buffers, respectively) was substantially lower than housing growth rates, and most land area was undisturbed (95% and 61% for 100-m and 500-m buffers, respectively). Houses were strongly clustered within 100 m of lakes. Habitat loss was lowest in wetlands but reached up to 60% in deciduous forests. Our results are encouraging in that clustered development is common in northern Wisconsin, and habitat loss is thus limited. However, the concentration of development along lakeshores causes concern, because these may be critical habitats for many species. Conservation goals can only be met if policies promote clustered development and simultaneously steer development away from sensitive ecosystems.     

Associations of forest bird species richness with housing and landscape patterns across the USA.

In the United States, housing density has substantially increased in and adjacent to forests. Our goal in this study was to identify how housing density and human populations are associated with avian diversity. We compared these associations to those between landscape pattern and avian diversity, and we examined how these associations vary across the conterminous forested United States. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the U.S. Census, and the National Land Cover Database, we focused on forest and woodland bird communities and conducted our analysis at multiple levels of model specificity, first using a coarse-thematic resolution (basic models), then using a larger number of fine-thematic resolution variables (refined models). We found that housing development was associated with forest bird species richness in all forested ecoregions of the conterminous United States. However, there were important differences among ecoregions. In the basic models, housing density accounted for < 5% of variance in avian species richness. In refined models, 85% of models included housing density and/or residential land cover as significant variables. The strongest guild response was demonstrated in the Adirondack-New England ecoregion, where 29% of variation in richness of the permanent resident guild was associated with housing density. Model improvements due to regional stratification were most pronounced for cavity nesters and short-distance migrants, suggesting that these guilds may be especially sensitive to regional processes. The varying patterns of association between avian richness and attributes associated with landscape structure suggested that landscape context was an important mediating factor affecting how biodiversity responds to landscape changes. Our analysis suggested that simple, broadly applicable, land use recommendations cannot be derived from our results. Rather, anticipating future avian response to land use intensification (or reversion to native vegetation) has to be conditioned on the current landscape context and the species group of interest. Our results show that housing density and residential land cover were significant predictors of forest bird species richness, and their prediction strengths are likely to increase as development continues.     

Road development, housing growth, and landscape fragmentation in northern Wisconsin: 1937-1999.

Roads remove habitat, alter adjacent areas, and interrupt and redirect ecological flows. They subdivide wildlife populations, foster invasive species spread, change the hydrologic network, and increase human use of adjacent areas. At broad scales, these impacts cumulate and define landscape patterns. The goal of this study was to improve our understanding of the dynamics of road networks over time, and their effects on landscape patterns, and identify significant relationships between road changes and other land-use changes. We mapped roads from aerial photographs from five dates between 1937 and 1999 in 17 townships in predominantly forested landscapes in northern Wisconsin, U.S.A. Patch-level landscape metrics were calculated on terrestrial area outside of a 15-m road-effect zone. We used generalized least-squares regression models to relate changes in road density and landscape pattern to concurrent changes in housing density. Rates of change and relationships were compared among three ecological regions. Our results showed substantial increases in both road density and landscape fragmentation during the study period. Road density more than doubled, and median, mean, and largest patch size were reduced by a factor of four, while patch shape became more regular. Increases in road density varied significantly among ecological subsections and were positively related to increases in housing density. Fragmentation was largely driven by increases in road density, but housing density had a significantly positive relationship with largest patch area and patch shape. Without protection of roadless areas, our results suggest road development is likely to continue in the future, even in areas where road construction is constrained by the physical environment. Recognizing the dynamic nature of road networks is important for understanding and predicting their ecological impacts over time and understanding where other types of development are likely to occur in the future. Historical perspectives of development can provide guidance in prioritizing management efforts to defragment landscapes and mitigate the ecological impacts of past road development.     

Housing growth,forests, and public lands in Northern Wisconsin from 1940 to 2000

Rural, forested areas throughout the United States are experiencing strong housing growth with potentially detrimental impacts on the environment. In this paper, we quantify housing growth in Northern Wisconsin over the last sixty years to determine if growth rates were higher near public lands, which may represent an important recreational amenity. We used data from the U.S. Census to produce decadal housing density estimates, “backcasts,” from 1940 to 2000 for northern Wisconsin to examine “rural sprawl” in northern Wisconsin and its relationship to forested areas and public lands. We integrated housing density estimates with the 1992/1993 National Land Cover Dataset to examine the relationship between rural sprawl and land cover, especially forests. Between 1940 and 2000, private land with <2 housing units/km² decreased from 47% to 21% of the total landscape. Most importantly, housing growth was concentrated along the boundaries of public lands. In 14 of the 19 counties that we studied, housing growth rates within 1 km of a public land boundary exceeded growth rates in the remainder of the county, and three of the five counties that did not exhibit this pattern, were the ones with the least amount of public land. Future growth can be expected in areas with abundant natural amenities, highlighting the critical need for additional research and effective natural resource management and regional planning to address these challenges.     

Increasing development in the surroundings of U.S. National Park Service holdings jeopardizes park effectiveness

Protected areas are cornerstones of biodiversity conservation, but they are in danger of becoming islands in a sea of human dominated landscapes. Our question was if protected areas may even foster development in their surroundings because they provide amenities that attract development, thus causing the isolation of the ecosystems they were designed to protect. Our study analyzed historic aerial photographs and topographical maps to reconstruct road development and building growth within and around Indiana Dunes and Pictured Rocks National Lakeshores in the U.S. Great Lakes region from 1938 to 2005, and to estimate the effects of park creation in 1966 on changes in landscape patterns. Historic U.S. census housing density data were used as a baseline to compare observed changes to. Our results showed that park establishment was effective in reducing and stopping the fragmenting impact of development within park boundaries. However, increased amenity levels following park establishment led to enhanced development in the surroundings of both parks. In the extreme case of Indiana Dunes, building density outside the park increased from 45 to 200 buildings/km² and road density almost doubled from 3.6 to 6.6 km/km² from 1938 to 2005. Development rates of change were much higher than in the broader landscape, particularly after park establishment. The potential amenity effect was up to 9500 new buildings in the 3.2-km zone around Indiana Dunes between 1966 and 2005. For Pictured Rocks the absolute effect was smaller but up to 70% of the observed building growth was potentially due to amenity effects. Our findings highlight the need for conservation planning at broader scales, incorporating areas beyond the boundaries of protected areas.     

Human influence on California fire regimes.

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.