SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

Floristics, performance and prognosis of historical trees in the urban forest of Guangzhou City (China)

Outstanding historical trees embedded in cities constitute pertinent environmental assets, yet they are widely threatened in third-world cities. Inadequate understanding of this valuable natural-cum-cultural heritage hinders proper conservation. A case study of Guangzhou in south China evaluated floristic composition, age profile and biomass structure of historical trees, assessed their performance in major habitats (institutional, park and roadside), and established a prognosis for future growth and management. The 348 historical trees examined belonged to only 25 species, vis-à -vis 254 trees in the entire urban forest, dominated by five species and native members. Roadside had more trees, followed by institutional and park, with merely the most common four species shared by all habitats. The limited commonality reflected tree-performance differentiation by habitats exerting selection pressure on species. The institutional growth-regime was more conducive to nurturing high-caliber specimens, whereas park is less capable. Individual species achievement by habitats, derived from tree-count ranking and relative-abundance indices, could inform species choice and tree conservation. Few trees exceeded 300 years of age in the millennium-old city, echoing a history of intense tree—city conflicts. Potential life-span, trunk and crown diameters indicated ample opportunities for further expansion of biomass and landscape impacts, which would be straitjacketed by the tightening urban fabric.     

Interlaboratory evaluation of endotoxin analyses in agricultural dusts--comparison of LAL assay and mass spectrometry

Endotoxin exposure is associated with wheeze and asthma morbidity, while early life exposure may reduce risk of allergy and asthma. Unfortunately, it is difficult to compare endotoxin results from different laboratories and environments. We undertook this study to determine if lipopolysaccharide (LPS) extraction efficiency could account for differences among laboratories. We generated and collected aerosols from chicken and swine barns, and corn processing. We randomly allocated side-by-side filter samples to five laboratories for Limulus assay of endotoxin. Lyophilized aliquots of filter extracts were analyzed for 3-hydroxy fatty acids (3-OHFAs) as a marker of LPS using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. There were significant differences in endotoxin assay and GC-MS (LPS) results between laboratories for all dust types (p < 0.01). Patterns of differences between labs varied by dust type. Relationships between assay and GC/MS results also depended on dust type. The percentages of individual 3-OHFA chain lengths varied across labs (p < 0.0001) suggesting that each lab recovered a different fraction of the LPS available. The presence of large amounts of particle associated LPS and absence of a freezing thawing cycle were associated with lower correlations between LPS and bioactivity, consistent with an absence of Limulus response to cell-bound endotoxin. These data suggest that extraction methods affect endotoxin measurements. The LAL methods may be most suitable when comparing exposures within similar environments; GC-MS offers additional information helpful in optimizing sample treatment and extraction. GC-MS may be of use when comparing across heterogeneous environments and should be considered for inclusion in future studies of human health outcomes.     

空气污染与儿童呼吸系统患病率的相关分析

 在流行病学调查和空气污染物监测的基础上，研究讨论了儿童呼吸系统患病率与空气污染之间的相关关系，结果表明，空气中细颗粒物（PM_2.5）和可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）与儿童呼吸系统患病率呈线性正相关关系，其影响比SO₂、Nox更密切．哮喘明显受颗粒物、SO₂、Nox的综合作用的影响．未感冒咳嗽发生率明显受细颗粒物和Nox污染综合作用的影响．     

Cost-effective selection of sampling frequencies for regulatory water quality monitoring

A dynamic programming code was formulated for the purpose of assigning sampling frequencies throughout a regulatory water quality monitoring network in order to optimize the statistical performance of the network while operating within a fixed budgetary constraint. The statistical objective is to achieve the greatest possible station to station uniformity in confidence interval widths about annual geometric means of the measured water quality variables and to keep the average confidence width reasonably small. The objective function is the sum (over several selected variables and all stations) of the normalized positive deviations of the predicted confidence interval widths from preselected design confidence interval widths. The code was designed to account for the effects of deterministic seasonal variation and serial correlation of the water quality observations by incorporating the results of the time series analysis of historical quality data. The economic constraint ensures that the annual operating cost of the system, including direct costs of travel and laboratory analysis, will not exceed the allowable budget. As an example situation, the dynamic programming code was used to assign sampling frequencies to the nine stations in Illinois from which historical quality data had been obtained and analyzed. Using five design quality constituents and representative travel and laboratory costs, an “optimal” design was produced. The optimal design achieved a 10% improvement in uniformity (standard deviation) of confidence interval widths when compared to a more traditional design based on the same budget and using identical sampling frequencies at every station.     

Spatial variability of soil phosphorus in relation to the topographic index and critical source areas: sampling for assessing risk to water quality

A measure of soil P status in agricultural soils is generally required for assisting with prediction of potential P loss from agricultural catchments and assessing risk for water quality. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (i) investigating the soil P status, distribution, and variability, both spatially and with soil depth, of two different first-order catchments; and (ii) determining variation in soil P concentration in relation to catchment topography (quantified as the "topographic index") and critical source areas (CSAs). The soil P measurements showed large spatial variability, not only between fields and land uses, but also within individual fields and in part was thought to be strongly influenced by areas where cattle tended to congregate and areas where manure was most commonly spread. Topographic index alone was not related to the distribution of soil P, and does not seem to provide an adequate indicator for CSAs in the study catchments. However, CSAs may be used in conjunction with soil P data for help in determining a more "effective" catchment soil P status. The difficulties in defining CSAs a priori, particularly for modeling and prediction purposes, however, suggest that other more "integrated" measures of catchment soil P status, such as baseflow P concentrations or streambed sediment P concentrations, might be more useful. Since observed soil P distribution is variable and is also difficult to relate to nationally available soil P data, any assessment of soil P status for determining risk of P loss is uncertain and problematic, given other catchment physicochemical characteristics and the sampling strategy employed.     

Monitoring the performance and decline of heritage trees in urban Hong Kong

Urban trees in Hong Kong exist in stressful and harsh habitat conditions due mainly to the exceptionally high-density development mode. This study focuses on the cream of the urban tree stock, the heritage trees, which were selected according to five sets of stringent criteria: species, dimension, structure, condition, location, and special considerations. The study area covers the main urban core of the city. The loss of trees in two periods, 1993-1998 and 1999-2003, was monitored, with the predisposing and direct causes of damages ascertained as far as possible. Of the 380 heritage specimens, 54 trees were lost in the survey period. The main predisposing causes were injuries sustained in roadwork and construction activities, both related to root damage and soil disturbance. The principal direct causes were recent gradual decline and abrupt demise due to typhoon breakage. Three pairs of contributing variables registered statistically significant associations (chi(2) test), namely predisposing cause versus direct cause, tree growth form versus direct cause, and survey period versus direct cause. Principal component analysis identified three factors that explained 70% of the variance, namely tree form, tree stature, and growth environment. The main reasons for the high mortality were explored. The possible applications of the findings to improve tree protection and management were discussed in relation to the overall planning for meritorious greenery and green space especially in compact cities.     

Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland

Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.