Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America

Global climate change has already affected the abundances, range limits, and interactions of many species. The hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), an invasive insect introduced to eastern North America from Japan, has decimated stands of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) and Carolina hemlock (T. caroliniana) from Georgia to Connecticut. However, its spread across central and northern New England has been slowed substantially by its inability to tolerate cold winter temperatures. Using data from previous lab and field studies collected over the past 17 years, including adelgid spread and overwintering mortality, we first characterize the temperature conditions that may limit adelgid spread. We then show how, in the future, rising winter temperatures due to climate change are likely to remove the conditions currently limiting adelgid spread, and facilitate the northward expansion as more suitable habitat becomes available.     

A study of the effect of physical and chemical stressors on biological integrity within the San Diego hydrologic region

Environmental agencies across the United States have searched for adequate methods to assess anthropogenic impacts on the environment. Biological assessments, which compare the taxonomic composition of an aquatic assemblage to relevant biocriteria, have surfaced as an effective method to assess the ecological integrity of US waterbodies. In this study, bioassessment data were collected and analyzed in conjunction with physical habitat and chemical stressor data for streams and rivers within the San Diego basin from 1998 through 2005. Physical stressors such as sediment loading, riparian destruction, and in-stream habitat homogenization affect many locations in the region. However, physical habitat measures alone were found to frequently overestimate the biological integrity of streams in the region. Many sites within the San Diego Basin, although unaffected by physical stressors, continue to exhibit low biological integrity scores. Sites with low biological integrity tend to possess higher specific conductance and salinity compared to sites with high biological integrity. We suggest that one possible reason for these differences is the source water used for municipal purposes.     

Local Perceptions of Changes in Traditional Ecological Knowledge: A Case Study from Malekula Island,Vanuatu

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is a critical global resource that may be eroding amid social and environmental change. Here, we present data on local perceptions of TEK change from three communities on Malekula Island in Vanuatu. Utilizing a structured interview (n = 120), we find a common perception of TEK loss. Participants defined two key periods of TEK erosion (roughly 1940–1960 and 1980–present), and noted that TEK decline was driven both external (e.g., church) and internal (e.g., shifting values) processes. Erosion was perceived to more comprehensive in the worldview domain than in aspects of ethnobiological knowledge and practice. These data indicate the perceived fragility of TEK systems and the complexity of TEK change. TEK systems are critical to natural resource management, and data such as these will assist in designing nuanced responses to the ongoing loss of cultural knowledge and practice.     

Evaluation of methylene blue and riboflavin for the photosensitized degradation of ethylene glycol

Degradation rates ranging from 0.22 ± 0.11 to 1.52 ± 0.50 mg/L-h were measured for ethylene glycol in riboflavin solutions exposed to natural sunlight. Significant degradation rates were noted in systems using 6 and 10 mg/L riboflavin at pH values of 4, 7, and 10. No significant degradation was found in systems using methylene blue as the photosensitizing agent. Possible mechanisms for ethylene glycol degradation include a combination hydrogen or electron abstraction by an excited photosensitizer and reaction with singlet oxygen or reaction with superoxide radicals.     

Remediating TCE‐contaminated groundwater in low‐permeability media using hydraulic fracturing to emplace zero‐valent iron/organic carbon amendment

A field pilot test in which hydraulic fracturing was used to emplace granular remediation amendment (a mixture of zero‐valent iron [ZVI] and organic carbon) into fine‐grained sandstone to remediate dissolved trichloroethene (TCE)‐contaminated groundwater was performed at a former intercontinental ballistic missile site in Colorado. Hydraulic fracturing was used to enhance the permeability of the aquifer with concurrent emplacement of amendment that facilitates TCE degradation. Geophysical monitoring and inverse modeling show that the network of amendment‐filled fractures extends throughout the aquifer volume targeted in the pilot test zone. Two years of subsequent groundwater monitoring demonstrate that amendment addition resulted in development of geochemical conditions favorable to both abiotic and biological TCE degradation, that TCE concentrations were substantially reduced (i.e., greater than 90 percent reduction in TCE mass), and that the primary degradation processes are likely abiotic. The pilot‐test data aided in re‐evaluating the conceptual site model and in designing the full‐scale remedy to address a larger portion of the TCE‐contaminated groundwater plume. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Enforcement and price controls in emissions trading

This paper examines how enforcement affects the structure and performance of emissions trading programs with price controls under uncertainty about firms' abatement costs. The analysis highlights how an enforcement strategy can cause abatement-cost risk to be transmitted to enforcement costs via the price of permits. When this occurs, accommodating the effect of abatement-cost risk with an optimal policy results in higher expected emissions and lower expected permit price than their second-best optimal values. However, it is possible to design an enforcement strategy that shields enforcement costs from abatement-cost risk by tying sanctions directly to permit prices. This enforcement strategy stabilizes enforcement effort, the optimal permit supply and price controls are independent of enforcement costs, and the policy produces the second-best optimal outcome.     

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology.     

Efficiency of perchlorate consumption in road flares, propellants and explosives

When an explosive detonates or a propellant or flare burns, consumption of the energetic filler should be complete but rarely is, especially in the presence of large amounts of non-combustible materials. Herein we examine three types of perchlorate-containing devices to estimate their potential as sources of contamination in their normal mode of functioning. Road flares, rocket propellants and ammonium nitrate (AN) emulsion explosives are potentially significant anthropogenic sources of perchlorate contamination. This laboratory evaluated perchlorate residue from burning of flares and propellants as well as detonations of ammonium nitrate emulsion explosives. Residual perchlorate in commercial products ranged from 0.094 mg perchlorate per gram material (flares) to 0.012 mg perchlorate per gram material (AN emulsion explosives). The rocket propellant formulations, prepared in this laboratory, generated 0.014 mg of perchlorate residue per gram of material.     

Non-invasive fetal genotyping for maternal alleles with droplet digital PCR: A comparative study of analytical approaches

Objectives

To develop a flexible droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) workflow to perform non-invasive prenatal diagnosis via relative mutation dosage (RMD) for maternal pathogenic variants with a range of inheritance patterns, and to compare the accuracy of multiple analytical approaches.

Methods

Cell free DNA (cfDNA) was tested from 124 archived maternal plasma samples: 88 cases for sickle cell disease and 36 for rare Mendelian conditions. Three analytical methods were compared: sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), Bayesian and z-score analyses.

Results

The SPRT, Bayesian and z-score analyses performed similarly well with correct prediction rates of 96%, 97% and 98%, respectively. However, there were high rates of inconclusive results for each cohort, particularly for z-score analysis which was 31% overall. Two samples were incorrectly classified by all three analytical methods; a false negative result predicted for a fetus affected with sickle cell disease and a false positive result predicting the presence of an X-linked IDS variant in an unaffected fetus.

Conclusions

ddPCR can be applied to RMD for diverse conditions and inheritance patterns, but all methods carry a small risk of erroneous results. Further evaluation is required both to reduce the rate of inconclusive results and explore discordant results in more detail.