Development of a Computer Workstation for Famine Early Warning and Food Security

Beginning in 1990, the University of Arizona, Arizona Remote Sensing Center (ARSC) has been involved in a collaborative effort with the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Remote Sensing Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations in designing and developing an integrated computer workstation for famine early warning. The goal of the project is to provide food security analysts with a set of computer tools to manage a very large and diverse set of data for predicting the onset of food security emergencies for every country on Earth. The initial stage of the project involved the conceptual definition of system elements and the development of overall system architecture. We are now developing an open, flexible, and portable system designed to significantly assist the work of the analysts. System architecture provides a task-specific and user-friendly graphic user interface (GUI) within a Windows environment that will link image processing, geographic information system (GIS), spreadsheet, text, and graphics software packages into a single operational environment. A relational database management system (RDBMS) is serving as the back-end of the workstation to facilitate data storage and retrieval and as a means to preserve analysis methodologies.     

Economic Analysis of Selected Offshore Petroleum Arrangements

As a result of the current decline of oil prices, exploration decisions are more carefully analysed than ever before. At the same time various governments have introduced incentives to reinvest in exploration and development in order to maintain or increase activity. As a result, most exploration decisions are now being analysed as "incremental investments". This has the effect of "trapping" investments in areas where profits are currently being made. This in turn creates serious problems for those developing countries which would like to attract exploration. The paper analyses issues related to sliding scale formulae based on the ROR, and the economic impact of the size of the area to which fiscal terms apply.     

The Interior-to-Edge Breakpoint Distance as a Guideline for Nature Conservation Policy

A method is proposed to quantify disturbance impact on isolated habitats. For every landscape patch, the breakpoint distance, defined as the penetration distance for which equality of interior and edge habitat is observed, can be calculated. Disturbance with equal impact at all patch sides is assumed. Effects of patch compactness, size, convolution, and perforation are discussed. The potential use of the measure for nature reserve design is discussed. The breakpoint distance follows the reserve design guidelines for individual patches, based on island biogeography and is consistent with the form and function principle. A large breakpoint distance is preferred for natural habitats. Small size, small compactness, intense convolution, and the occurrence of many gaps depress the breakpoint distance.     

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis with Bird Populations as Habitat-Specific Environmental Indicators: Evidence from Canada

Abstract:  The traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis postulates that environmental degradation follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We tested the EKC hypothesis with bird populations in 5 different habitats as environmental quality indicators. Because birds are considered environmental goods, for them the EKC hypothesis would instead be associated with a U-shaped relationship between bird populations and GDP per capita. In keeping with the literature, we included other variables in the analysis—namely, human population density and time index variables (the latter variable captured the impact of persistent and exogenous climate and/or policy changes on bird populations over time). Using data from 9 Canadian provinces gathered over 37 years, we used a generalized least-squares regression for each bird habitat type, which accounted for the panel structure of the data, the cross-sectional dependence across provinces in the residuals, heteroskedasticity, and fixed- or random-effect specifications of the models. We found evidence that supports the EKC hypothesis for 3 of the 5 bird population habitat types. In addition, the relationship between human population density and the different bird populations varied, which emphasizes the complex nature of the impact that human populations have on the environment. The relationship between the time-index variable and the different bird populations also varied, which indicates there are other persistent and significant influences on bird populations over time. Overall our EKC results were consistent with those found for threatened bird species, indicating that economic prosperity does indeed act to benefit some bird populations.     

Scientists as Stakeholders in Conservation of Hydrothermal Vents

Abstract: Hydrothermal vents are deep‐sea ecosystems that are almost exclusively known and explored by scientists rather than the general public. Continuing scientific discoveries arising from study of hydrothermal vents are concommitant with the increased number of scientific cruises visiting and sampling vent ecosystems. Through a bibliometric analysis, we assessed the scientific value of hydrothermal vents relative to two of the most well‐studied marine ecosystems, coral reefs and seagrass beds. Scientific literature on hydrothermal vents is abundant, of high impact, international, and interdisciplinary and is comparable in these regards with literature on coral reefs and seagrass beds. Scientists may affect hydrothermal vents because their activities are intense and spatially and temporally concentrated in these small systems. The potential for undesirable effects from scientific enterprise motivated the creation of a code of conduct for environmentally and scientifically benign use of hydrothermal vents for research. We surveyed scientists worldwide engaged in deep‐sea research and found that scientists were aware of the code of conduct and thought it was relevant to conservation, but they did not feel informed or confident about the respect other researchers have for the code. Although this code may serve as a reminder of scientists’ environmental responsibilities, conservation of particular vents (e.g., closures to human activity, specific human management) may effectively ensure sustainable use of vent ecosystems for all stakeholders.     

Biodiversity and Conservation of Plants in Brazil

Abstract:  With more than 56,000 species (excluding fungi), Brazil has one of the richest floras in the world—nearly 19% of the world flora. Our knowledge of the diversity and status of nonvascular plants in Brazil is still fragmentary, although localized studies on algae have revealed loss of species resulting from environmental pollution. Emphasis on local floral surveys, rather than wider taxonomic studies, has obscured estimates of national totals for most taxonomic groups. Knowledge of angiosperms, especially monocotyledons (of which 45% of the species are endemic), is more complete than most. For this group figures are more reliable, with some distribution patterns, endemism levels, and centers of diversity identified. Much, however, still awaits discovery. Coordinated efforts to catalog Brazil's flora are in progress and include projects such as the conservation priority-setting workshops of the Brazilian Ministry of the Environment, which have identified key conservation areas in the major biomes; development of threatened species lists for plants; and the assembly of type data on species of northeastern Brazil through the Darwin Initiative—all of which greatly assist in increasing our knowledge. These initiatives also underline the urgent need to expand the numbers and geographic spread of projects on plant systematics and taxonomy in Brazil, a measure that demands adequate provision of funding and training programs for plant specialists. Finally, Brazil's environmental agency (IBAMA) could play a proactive role in opening protected areas under its jurisdiction, thereby facilitating botanical research by university departments and research institutes.     

Gap-Crossing Decisions by the Red Squirrel, a Forest-Dependent Small Mammal

Abstract:  Forest-associated species in fragmented landscapes must traverse potentially inhospitable gaps to move between habitat patches. Although conservation biologists advocate connecting patches with corridors or improving the matrix to make it suitable for movement, little is known about the factors influencing gap-crossing decisions for most species. We investigated gap crossing by the red squirrel ( Tamiasciurus hudsonicus ) in logged landscapes in southeastern Alaska, where the species avoids microhabitats associated with gaps created by clearcutting. We released individuals across clearcuts and determined the routes they took home with tracking spools and radio telemetry. Of 36 adult red squirrels translocated across six clearcuts, 14 crossed clearcuts to reach home. Squirrels were more likely to cross clearcuts if the detour efficiency (distance to home crossing gap divided by distance of forested detour) was low, indicating an ability to compare distances along alternate routes and travel costs or risks in different habitats. No other landscape metrics, such as gap size or crossing distance, predicted crossing behavior. Red squirrels of low body mass were more likely to cross clearcuts, where the probability of encountering conspecifics is low. Distance predicted route choice for squirrels detouring around clearcuts. Indirect evidence suggests that perceived predation risk, energetic costs, or both are higher in clearcuts. Detour efficiency reportedly influences the gap-crossing decisions of some forest-associated birds, but this is the first demonstration of its role in gap-crossing decisions by a mammal.     

Response of Savanna Fire Regimes to Changing Fire-Management Policies in a Large African National Park

Abstract:  Approaches to fire management in the savanna ecosystems of the 2-million ha Kruger National Park, South Africa, have changed several times over the past six decades. These approaches have included regular and flexible prescribed burning on fixed areas and a policy that sought to establish a lightning-dominated fire regime. We sought to establish whether changes in management induced the desired variability in fire regimes over a large area. We used a spatial database of information on all fires in the park between 1957 and 2002 to determine elements of the fire regime associated with each management policy. The area that burned in any given year was independent of the management approach and was strongly related to rainfall (and therefore grass fuels) in the preceding 2 years. On the other hand, management did affect the spatial heterogeneity of fires and their seasonal distribution. Heterogeneity was higher at all scales during the era of prescribed burning, compared with the lightning-fire interval. The lightning-fire interval also resulted in a greater proportion (72% vs. 38%) of the area burning in the dry season. Mean fire-return intervals varied between 5.6 and 7.3 years, and variability in fire-return intervals was strongly influenced by the sequencing of annual rainfall rather than by management. The attempt at creating a lightning-dominated fire regime failed because most fires were ignited by humans, and the policy has been replaced by a more pragmatic approach that combines flexible prescribed burning with lightning-ignited fires.     

Regional Consequences of Local Population Demography and Genetics in Relation to Habitat Management in Gentiana pneumonanthe

Abstract:  A joint demographic and population genetics stage-based model for a subdivided population was applied to Gentiana pneumonanthe , an early successional perennial herb, at a regional (metapopulation) scale. We used numerical simulations to determine the optimal frequency of habitat disturbance (sod cutting) and the intensity of gene flow among populations of G. pneumonanthe to manage both population viability and genetic diversity in this species. The simulations showed that even small populations that initially had near-equal allele frequencies could, if managed properly through sod cutting every 6 to 7 years, sustain their high genetic variation over the long run without gene flow. The more the allele frequencies in the small populations are skewed, however, the higher the probability that in the absence of gene flow, some alleles will be lost and within-population genetic variation will decrease even under proper management. This implies that although local population dynamics should be the major target for management, regional dynamics become important when habitat fragmentation and decreased population size lead to the loss of local genetic diversity. The recommended strategy to improve genetic composition of small populations is the introduction of seeds or seedlings of nonlocal origin.