A Critique of Estimating Future Costs Using Most Likely Value

ASTM E2137 (Standard Guide for Estimating Monetary Costs and Liability for Environmental Matters, or E2137) is the guidance for developing estimates of future environmental costs. E2137 provides a hierarchy of cost estimation approaches, and expresses an explicit preference for the use of probabilistic cost analysis to develop expected values for environmental costs. Dr. Ram and his colleagues have published an article (Remediation Journal, Autumn 2013) which rejects the use of EV analysis, arguing that while “good in principle” it has little practical value because it is nearly impossible to develop supportable probabilities. The E2137 principles and processes have been used for more than a decade in the context of addressing future environmental costs, yet their view of E2137 renders the standard meaningless. We conclude that the deficiency is not in the ASTM standard, and that when properly constructed, probabilistic analyses can be used to develop expected values with supportable probabilities. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The in situ treatment of BTEX,MTBE, and TBA in saline groundwater

A pilot‐scale test was conducted in a saline aquifer to determine if a petroleum hydrocarbon (PHC) plume containing benzene (B), toluene (T), ethylbenzene (E), xylenes (X), methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE), and tert‐butyl alcohol (TBA) could be treated effectively using a sequential treatment approach that employed in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) and enhanced bioremediation (EBR). Chemical oxidants, such as persulfate, have been shown to be effective in reducing dissolved concentrations of BTEX (B + T + E + X) and additives such as MTBE and TBA in a variety of geochemical environments including saline aquifers. However, the lifespan of the oxidants in saline environments tends to be short‐lived (i.e., hours to days) with their effectiveness being limited by poor delivery, inefficient consumption by nontargeted species, and back‐diffusion processes. Similarly, the addition of electron acceptors has also been shown to be effective at reducing BTEX and associated additives in saline groundwater through EBR, however EBR can be limited by various factors similar to ISCO. To minimize the limitations of both approaches, a pilot test was carried out in a saline unconfined PHC‐impacted aquifer to evaluate the performance of an engineered, combined remedy that employed both approaches in a sequence. The PHC plume had total BTEX, MTBE, and TBA concentrations of up to 4,584; 55,182; and 1,880 μg/L, respectively. The pilot test involved injecting 13,826 L of unactivated persulfate solution (19.4 weight percent (wt.%) sodium persulfate (Na₂S₂O₈) solution into a series of injection wells installed within the PHC plume. Parameters monitored over a 700‐day period included BTEX, MTBE, TBA, sulfate, and sulfate isotope concentrations in the groundwater, and carbon and hydrogen isotopes in benzene and MTBE in the groundwater. The pilot test data indicated that the BTEX, MTBE, and TBA within the PHC plume were treated over time by both chemical oxidation and sulfate reduction. The injection of the unactivated persulfate resulted in short‐term decreases in the concentrations of the BTEX compounds, MTBE, and TBA. The mean total BTEX concentration from the three monitoring wells within the pilot‐test area decreased by up to 91%, whereas MTBE and TBA mean concentrations decreased by up to 39 and 58%, respectively, over the first 50 days postinjection in which detectable concentrations of persulfate remained in groundwater. Concentrations of the BTEX compounds, MTBE, and TBA rebounded at the Day 61 marker, which corresponded to no persulfate being detected in the groundwater. Subsequent monitoring of the groundwater revealed that the concentrations of BTEX continued to decrease with time suggesting that EBR was occurring within the plume. Between Days 51 and 487, BTEX concentrations decreased an additional 84% from the concentration measured on Day 61. Mean concentrations of MTBE showed a reduction during the EBR phase of remediation of 33% while the TBA concentration appeared to decrease initially but then increased as the sulfate concentration decreased as a result of MTBE degradation. Isotope analyses of dissolved sulfate (³⁴S and ¹⁸O), and compound‐specific isotope analysis (CSIA) of benzene and MTBE (¹³C and ²H) supported the conclusions that ISCO and EBR processes were occurring at different stages and locations within the plume over time.     

Fishing‐gear restrictions and biomass gains for coral reef fishes in marine protected areas

Considerable empirical evidence supports recovery of reef fish populations with fishery closures. In countries where full exclusion of people from fishing may be perceived as inequitable, fishing‐gear restrictions on nonselective and destructive gears may offer socially relevant management alternatives to build recovery of fish biomass. Even so, few researchers have statistically compared the responses of tropical reef fisheries to alternative management strategies. We tested for the effects of fishery closures and fishing gear restrictions on tropical reef fish biomass at the community and family level. We conducted 1,396 underwater surveys at 617 unique sites across a spatial hierarchy within 22 global marine ecoregions that represented 5 realms. We compared total biomass across local fish assemblages and among 20 families of reef fishes inside marine protected areas (MPAs) with different fishing restrictions: no‐take, hook‐and‐line fishing only, several fishing gears allowed, and sites open to all fishing gears. We included a further category representing remote sites, where fishing pressure is low. As expected, full fishery closures, (i.e., no‐take zones) most benefited community‐ and family‐level fish biomass in comparison with restrictions on fishing gears and openly fished sites. Although biomass responses to fishery closures were highly variable across families, some fishery targets (e.g., Carcharhinidae and Lutjanidae) responded positively to multiple restrictions on fishing gears (i.e., where gears other than hook and line were not permitted). Remoteness also positively affected the response of community‐level fish biomass and many fish families. Our findings provide strong support for the role of fishing restrictions in building recovery of fish biomass and indicate important interactions among fishing‐gear types that affect biomass of a diverse set of reef fish families.     

A synoptic survey of select wastewater-tracer compounds and the pesticide imidacloprid in Florida’s ambient freshwaters

Current wastewater treatment technologies do not remove many unregulated hydrophilic compounds, and there is growing interest that low levels of these compounds, referred to as emerging contaminants, may impact human health and the environment. A probabilistic-designed monitoring network was employed to infer the extent of Florida’s ambient freshwaters containing the wastewater (Includes reuse water, septic systems leachate, and wastewater treatment effluent.) indicators sucralose, acetaminophen, carbamazepine, and primidone and those containing the widely used pesticide imidacloprid. Extent estimates with 95% confidence bounds are provided for canals, rivers, streams, small and large lakes, and unconfined aquifers containing ultra-trace concentrations of these compounds as based on analyses of 2015 sample surveys utilizing 528 sites. Sucralose is estimated to occur in greater than 50% of the canal, river, stream, and large lake resource extents. The pharmaceuticals acetaminophen, carbamazepine, and primidone are most prevalent in rivers, with approximately 30% of river kilometers estimated to contain at least one of these compounds. Imidacloprid is estimated to occur in 50% or greater of the canal and river resource extents, and it is the only compound found to exceed published toxicity or environmental effects standards. Geospatial analyses show sucralose detection frequencies within Florida’s drainage basins to be significantly related to the percentage of urban land use (R²?=?0.36, p?<?0.001), and imidacloprid detection frequencies to be significantly related to the percentage of urban and agricultural land use (R²?=?0.47, p?<?0.001). The extent of the presence of these compounds highlights the need for additional emerging contaminant studies especially those examining effects on aquatic biota.     

Exploratory Analysis of the Winter Chemistry of Five Lakes on the North Slope of Alaska1

Abstract: Lakes are important water resources on the North Slope of Alaska. Freshwater is required for oilfield production as well as exploration, which occurs largely on ice roads and pads. Since most North Slope lakes are shallow, the quantity and quality of the water under ice at the end of winter are important environmental management issues. Currently, water‐use permits are a function of the presence of overwintering fish populations, and their sensitivity to low oxygen concentrations. Sampling of five North Slope lakes during the winter of 2004‐2005 shed some light on the winter chemistry of four lakes that were used as water supplies and one undisturbed lake. Field analysis was conducted for oxygen, conductivity, pH, and temperature throughout the lake depth, as well as ice thickness and water depth. Water samples were retrieved from the lakes and analyzed for Na, Ca, K, Mg, Fe, dissolved‐organic carbon, and alkalinity in the laboratory. Lake properties, rather than pumping, were the best predictors of oxygen depletion, with the highest dissolved‐oxygen levels maintained in the lake with the lowest concentration of constituents. Volume weighted mean dissolved‐oxygen concentrations ranged from 4 to 94% of saturation in March. Dissolved oxygen and specific conductance data suggested that the lakes began to refresh in May.     

The short-term effects of prescribed burning on biomass removal and the release of nitrogen and phosphorus in a treatment wetland

Nutrient removal by constructed wetlands can decline over time due to the accumulation of organic matter. A prescribed burn is one of many management strategies used to remove detritus in macrophyte-dominated systems. We quantified the short-term effects on effluent water quality and the amount of aboveground detritus removed from a prescribed burn event. Surface water outflow concentrations were approximately three times higher for P and 1.5 times higher for total Kjeldhal nitrogen (TKN) following the burn event when compared to the control. The length of time over which the fire effect was significant (P < 0.05), 3 d for TKN and up to 23 d for P fractions. Over time, the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) in the effluent decreased, but was compensated with increases in dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) and particulate phosphorus (PP), such that net total P remained the same. Total aboveground biomass decreased by 68.5% as a result of the burn, however, much of the live vegetation was converted to standing dead material. These results demonstrate that a prescribed burn can significantly decrease the amount of senescent organic matter in a constructed wetland. However, short-term nutrient releases following the burn could increase effluent nutrient concentrations. Therefore, management strategies should include hydraulically isolating the burned area immediately following the burn event to prevent nutrient export.     

Effect of shore position and environmental metal levels on body metal burdens in the barnacle, Elminius modestus

Body (thorax and prosoma) weight, shell growth, and Zn, Cu, Fe, Mn and Ca levels were measured in artificially settled Elminius modestus over a 14-month period following transfer to high, mid and low tide positions in the uncontaminated Menai Strait and two mid tide sites within a Zn and Cu polluted bay on the North West coast of Anglesey. Barnacles showed higher mortality and slower growth at the upper shore position than at any other site. There was no evidence of Zn and Cu regulation by the bodies or shells, and both seemed to reflect environmental levels. Body metal levels were lowest in early winter and the highest second year values were found in January (Zn), March (Cu, Fe) or May (Ca). Higher shore barnacles contained larger concentrations of Zn than mid or low tide animals. Differences in feeding activity and the amount of testes may account for these variations. Reciprocal transplants between polluted and 'clean' sites indicate that body Cu and Zn accumulation and loss was very rapid. Spatial and temporal changes in shell metal levels closely mirror that of the body.     

Microbiological characteristics in a zero-valent iron reactive barrier

Zero-valent iron (Fe⁰)-based permeable reactive barriertreatment has been generating great interest for passivegroundwater remediation, yet few studies have paid particularattention to the microbial activity and characteristics withinand in the vicinity of the Fe⁰-barrier matrix. The presentstudy was undertaken to evaluate the microbial population andcommunity composition in the reducing zone of influence byFe⁰ corrosion in the barrier at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plantsite. Both phospholipid fatty acids and DNA analyses were usedto determine the total microbial population and microbialfunctional groups, including sulfate-reducing bacteria,denitrifying bacteria, and methanogens, in groundwater andsoil/iron core samples. A diverse microbial community wasidentified in the strongly reducing Fe⁰ environment despitea relatively high pH condition within the Fe⁰ barrier (up topH 10). In comparison with those found in the backgroundsoil/groundwater samples, the enhanced microbial populationranged from 1 to 3 orders of magnitude and appeared to increase from upgradient of the barrier to downgradient soil. Inaddition, microbial community composition appeared to change overtime, and the bacterial types of microorganismsincreased consistently as the barrier aged. DNA analysisindicated the presence of sulfate-reducing and denitrifyingbacteria in the barrier and its surrounding soil. However, theactivity of methanogens was found to be relatively low,presumably as a result of the competition by sulfate/metal-reducing bacteria and denitrifying bacteria because of the unlimited availability of sulfate and nitrate in the site groundwater. Results of this study provide evidenceof a diverse microbial population within and in the vicinity ofthe iron barrier, although the important roles of microbial activity, either beneficially or detrimentally, on the longevityand enduring efficiency of the Fe⁰ barriers are yet to be evaluated.     

Incorporating natural capital into economy-wide impact analysis: a case study from Alberta

Traditionally, decision-makers have relied on economic impactestimates derived from conventional economy-wide models. Conventional models lack the environmental linkages necessary for examining environmental stewardship and economic sustainability, and in particular the ability to assess the impact of policies on natural capital. This study investigatesenvironmentally extended economic impact estimation on a regionalscale using a case study region in the province of Alberta knownas the Foothills Model Forest (FMF). Conventional economic impactmodels are environmentally extended in pursuit of enhancingpolicy analysis and local decision-making. It is found that theflexibility of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelingapproach offers potential for environmental extension, with a solid grounding in economic theory. The CGE approach may be the tool of the future for more complete integrated environment andeconomic impact assessment.     

Ambient air concentrations of PCDDs,PCDFs, coplanar PCBs,and PAHs at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge,Jackson County,Mississippi

Our objective was to determine the levels of selected airborne contaminants in ambient air at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Mississippi, that might be affecting the health of endangered cranes living there. Two high-volume air samplers were operated at separate locations on the Refuge during May–September 1991. The sampling media were micro-quartz filters in combination with polyurethane foam plugs. Composite bimonthly samples from each station were analyzed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), dibenzofurans (PCDFs), coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Overall, residue concentrations were low. The toxic PCDD isomer 2,3,7,8-tetra-CDD was not detected, nor was penta-CDD. There was no difference (P>0.05) in residue concentrations between stations or over time and meteorological parameters were not correlated with residue concentrations. Because contaminant levels and patterns may differ seasonally, we recommend that air samples collected during winter months also be analyzed for these same chemical groups.