Research in the War Zones of Eritrea and Northern Ethiopia

The paper engages in the discussion of conducting research in war zones, initiated in Disasters by Barakat and Ellis. It looks specifically at possibilities for research in the war zones of Eritrea and Northern Ethiopia during the 1980s, and notes the ways in which this context differs from wars in the former Yugoslavia to which Barakat and Ellis mainly refer. The authors suggest that the unique context of every internal war, and the institutional actors that converge around this context, create both the potential and the demand for particular kinds of information, especially when humanitarian programmes involving international donors are under way. De-contexualising research in war zones from the specific context in which it occurs, in order to derive general guidelines, can thus be problematic.     

Time perspective balance and team adaptation in dynamic task contexts

The concept of time perspective balance has attracted increased attention from scholars in the past decade, reflected in published evidence suggesting positive outcomes ranging from enhanced mood to life satisfaction for those individuals possessing balance among their past, present, and future time perspectives, and assumedly able to shift their time perspective to match situational demands. In this paper, we consider the notion of time perspective balance in an organizational setting within which much consequential adaptation often occurs—the team environment—and explore different configurations of time perspective balance in teams facing dynamic task contexts. Drawing from work on situational awareness, we first consider the mechanism by which time perspective balance likely influences individual adaptation in dynamic task-focused situations. Next, we postulate what types of team configurations—ones with more balanced time perspective uniformity or ones with more time perspective variety—might be more appropriate in dynamic contexts given key team conditions. We illustrate our analysis with examples from healthcare team settings and offer ideas for future research.     

Acid Particles and the Tracheobronchial Region of the Respiratory System—An “Irritation-Signaling” Model for Possible Health Effects

This paper explores some detailed mechanistic hypotheses for the possible action of acid particles on the tracheobronchial region of the human respiratory system. Because of the buffering capacity and volume of mucus produced per day it appears doubtful that ordinary ambient exposures to acid particles could markedly change the overall pH of tracheobronchial mucus considered as a whole. However it is possible that individual acidic particles could contain enough acid to deliver localized “irritant signals” that could be the triggers for enhanced mucus secretion and cell division in sensitive portions of the bronchial tree, and thereby contribute to the processes involved in chronic bronchitis.

Depending on the exact pH depression required for a “signal” to be perceived by the tracheobronchial epithelium, the acid content of the incoming particles per unit weight, and the effect of neutralization by ammonia in the upper respiratory tract, the minimum size of an acidic particle required to deliver a perceptible signal might range from about 0.4 to 0.7 microns for portions of the epithelium that are frequently swept by 4-micron mucus droplets. (For unprotected epithelium, however, it is conceivable that the minimum effective size for acid particles could be less.) Since particle number per unit weight declines dramatically with increasing particle size, the most potent fraction of particles in terms of signals delivered per μg/m³is likely to be just above the minimum size that is needed to produce an effective signal. The model developed here makes predictions of the relative potency of particles of different size and acid delivery capacity that could be tested in both experimental animal systems and human epidemiological studies.     

General mathematical models for LCI recycling

Life cycle inventory (LCI) is becoming more widely used as a tool to evaluate the resource and energy use and the environmental releases associated with various products. The methodology for handling different recycling scenarios is also becoming increasingly important. Several different methods exist for handling recycling in an LCI. The method described in this paper uses mathematical models to show that the same basic equations can be used to handle a variety of recycling options for multi-product systems.     

Ecological effects of coastal marsh impoundments: A review

Many coastal resource managers believe estuarine marshes are critically important to estuarine fish and shellfish, not only because of the habitat present for juvenile stages, but also because of the export of detritus and plant nutrients that are consumed in the estuary. Concern has been widely expressed that diking and flooding marshes (impounding) for mosquito control and waterfowl management interferes with these values of marshes. Major changes caused by impoundment include an increase in water level, a decrease in salinity, and a decrease in the exchange of marsh water with estuarine water. Alteration of species composition is dramatic after impoundment. Changes in overall production and transport phenomena, however—and the consequences of these changes— may not be as great in some cases as the concern about these has implied. Although few data are available, a more important concern may be the reduction of access by estuarine fish and shellfish to the abundant foods and cover available in many natural, as well as impounded, marshes. Perhaps even more important is the occasional removal of free access to open water when conditions become unfavorable in impounded marsh that is periodically opened and closed. Collection of comparative data on the estuarine animal use of various configurations of natural and impounded marshes by estuarine animals should lead to improved management of both impounded and unimpounded marshes.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

Storage of CO2 in saline aquifers: Effects of gravity, viscous, and capillary forces on amount and timing of trapping

CO₂ can be effectively immobilized during CO₂ injection into saline aquifers by residual trapping – also known as capillary trapping – a process resulting from capillary snap-off of isolated CO₂ bubbles. Simulations of CO₂ injection were performed to investigate the interplay of viscous and gravity forces and capillary trapping of CO₂. Results of those simulations show that gas injection processes in which gravitational forces are weak compared to viscous forces (low gravity number N_gv) trap significantly more CO₂ than do flows with strong gravitational forces relative to the viscous forces (high N_gv). The results also indicate that over a wide range of gravity numbers (N_gv), significant fractions of the trapping of CO₂ can occur relatively quickly. The amount of CO₂ that is trapped after injection ceases is demonstrated to correlate with N_gv. For some simulated displacements, effects of capillary pressure and aquifer dip angle on the amount and the rate of trapping are reported. Trapping increases when effects of capillary pressure and aquifer inclination are included in the model. Finally we show that injection schemes such as alternating injection of brine and CO₂ or brine injection after CO₂ injection can also enhance the trapping behavior.     

Simulation modeling and resource management

Simulation models are becoming increasingly important as tools for synthesizing and applying information in almost all aspects of land management. They are particulary valuable for predicting and comparing outcomes of alternative decisions and assumptions. Models also permit managers to consider and integrate the potential influences of a large number of variables.     

INTERDISCIPLINARY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR TIMBER SALE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A method of project planning for systematically assessing and recording impacts of alternative timber harvest startegies for subareas of a sale planning area is presented. This method uses an interdisciplinary team composed of specialists and decisionmaker to develop and analyze treatment alternatives and uses impact prediction matrices with explicit evaluation criteria to illustrate and record ratings of impacts on resource factors. The method is a system for organizing, for discovering appropriate alternatives, for facilitating interaction, and for documenting environmental analysis. It provides for decisionmaker control over the project, for exchange of value perspectives, and for reduction in conflict between specialists. The quality of decisions which result from the method presented depends upon the information available and the effectiveness of interaction between all members of the interdisciplinary team.