Efficient search procedures for extreme pollutant values

Extreme pollutant values are of great interest in water quality monitoring because of their frequent toxicological significance. The principal barrier to the detection of these values, however, is the cost of extensive and comprehensive monitoring. This paper demonstrates an efficient method to determine the maximum sample measurement from a finite set of sequential samples without explicitly testing them all. It is assumed that the process of sample measurement is distinct from collection and has higher costs. It is further assumed that the measurements have high positive autocorrelation.A methodology is presented based on a common industrial testing procedure referred to as composite sampling—the physical pooling or compositing of a set of sequential samples before measurement. A method known as primary first order compositing (PFOC) was found to be superior to the traditional technique of random sampling, particularly if small composite sizes are utilized.The authors are, respectively, operations research analyst, Vancouver, B. C.; Associate Professor and Chairman, Policy Analysis Division, Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration, University of British Columbia; and Associate Professor, Management Science Division, Faculty of Commerce, U.B.C.     

Estimating means and variances: The comparative efficiency of composite and grab samples

This paper compares the efficiencies of two sampling techniques for estimating a population mean and variance. One procedure, called grab sampling, consists of collecting and analyzing one sample per period. The second procedure, called composite sampling, collectsn samples per period which are then pooled and analyzed as a single sample. We review the well known fact that composite sampling provides a superior estimate of the mean. However, it is somewhat surprising that composite sampling does not always generate a more efficient estimate of the variance. For populations with platykurtic distributions, grab sampling gives a more efficient estimate of the variance, whereas composite sampling is better for leptokurtic distributions. These conditions on kurtosis can be related to peakedness and skewness. For example, a necessary condition for composite sampling to provide a more efficient estimate of the variance is that the population density function evaluated at the mean (i.e.f()) be greater than . If , then a grab sample is more efficient. In spite of this result, however, composite sampling does provide a smaller estimate of standard error than does grab sampling in the context of estimating population means.     

Implications of Land Use Changes on Carbon Dynamics and Sequestration—Evaluation from Forestry Datasets, India

Forests and soils are a major sink of carbon, and land use changes can affect the magnitude of above ground and below ground carbon stores and the net flux of carbon between the land and the atmosphere. Studies on methods for examining the future consequences of changes in patterns of land use change and carbon flux gains importance, as they provide different options for CO₂ mitigation strategies. In this study, a simulation approach combining Markov chain processes and carbon pools for forests and soils has been implemented to study the carbon flows over a period of time. Markov chains have been computed by converting the land use change and forestry data of India from 1997 to 1999 into a matrix of conditional probabilities reflecting the changes from one class at time t to another class time t+1. Results from Markov modeling suggested Indian forests as a potential sink for 0.94 Gt carbon, with an increase in dense forest area of about 75.93 Mha and decrease of about 3.4 Mha and 5.0 Mha in open and scrub forests, if similar land use changes that occurred during 1997–1999 would continue. The limiting probabilities suggested 34.27 percent as dense forest, 6.90 as open forest, 0.4 percent mangrove forest, 0.1 percent scrub and 58 percent as non-forest area. Although Indian forests are found to be a potential carbon sink, analysis of results from transition probabilities for different years till 2050 suggests that, the forests will continue to be a source of about 20.59 MtC to the atmosphere. The implications of these results in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on open and scrub forests and their contribution to carbon source from land use change and forestry sector are discussed. Some of the mitigation aspects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land use change and forestry sector in India are also reviewed in the study.     

Research priorities for managing the impacts and dependencies of business upon food,energy, water and the environment

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the ‘nexus’ of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.     

Trait‐based prediction of extinction risk of small‐bodied freshwater fishes

Small body size is generally correlated with r‐selected life‐history traits, including early maturation, short‐generation times, and rapid growth rates, that result in high population turnover and a reduced risk of extinction. Unlike other classes of vertebrates, however, small freshwater fishes appear to have an equal or greater risk of extinction than large fishes. We explored whether particular traits explain the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List conservation status of small‐bodied freshwater fishes from 4 temperate river basins: Murray‐Darling, Australia; Danube, Europe; Mississippi‐Missouri, North America; and the Rio Grande, North America. Twenty‐three ecological and life‐history traits were collated for all 171 freshwater fishes of ≤120 mm total length. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to assess which combination of the 23 traits best explained whether a species was threatened or not threatened. We used the best models to predict the probability of 29 unclassified species being listed as threatened. With and without controlling for phylogeny at the family level, small body size—among small‐bodied species—was the most influential trait correlated with threatened species listings. The k‐folds cross‐validation demonstrated that body size and a random effect structure that included family predicted the threat status with an accuracy of 78% (SE 0.5). We identified 10 species likely to be threatened that are not listed as such on the IUCN Red List. Small body size is not a trait that provides universal resistance to extinction, particularly for vertebrates inhabiting environments affected by extreme habitat loss and fragmentation. We hypothesize that this is because small‐bodied species have smaller home ranges, lower dispersal capabilities, and heightened ecological specialization relative to larger vertebrates. Trait data and further model development are needed to predict the IUCN conservation status of the over 11,000 unclassified freshwater fishes, especially those under threat from proposed dam construction in the world's most biodiverse river basins.     

Monitoring Environmental Impact in the Upper Sonoran Lifestyle: A New Tool for Rapid Ecological Assessment

Characterized by expensive housing, high socioeconomic status, and topographic relief, Upper Sonoran Lifestyle communities are found primarily along the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) in the Phoenix, Arizona metro area. Communities like these sprawl into the wildlands in the United States Southwest, creating a distinct urban fringe. This article, through locational comparison, introduces and evaluates a new field assessment tool for monitoring anthropogenic impact on soil–vegetation interactions along the well-maintained multi-use recreational trails in Upper Sonoran Lifestyle region. Comparing data from randomly selected transects along other multi-use trails with data from a control site revealed three key indicators of anthropogenic disturbances on soil–vegetation interactions: soil disturbance, vegetation disturbance, and vegetation density. Soil and vegetation disturbance displayed an average distance decay exponent factor of −0.60, while vegetation density displayed a reverse decay average of 0.60. Other important indicators of disturbance included vegetation type, biological soil crusts, and soil bulk density. The predictive ability of this new field tool enhances its applicability, offering a powerful rapid ecological assessment method for monitoring long-term anthropogenic impact in the Upper Sonoran Lifestyle, and other sprawling cities along the WUI.     

Trampling Impacts on Thermotolerant Vegetation of Geothermal Areas in New Zealand

Geothermal features such as geysers, mud pools, sinter terraces, fumaroles, hot springs, and steaming ground are natural attractions often visited by tourists. Visitation rates for such areas in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand are in the order of hundreds of thousands annually. These areas are also habitat for rare and specialized plant and microbial communities that live in the steam-heated soils of unusual chemical composition. We evaluated historical and current trampling impacts of tourists on the thermotolerant vegetation of the Waimangu and Waiotapu geothermal areas near Rotorua, and compared the results to experimental trampling at a third site (Taheke) not used by tourists. Historical tourism has removed vegetation and soil from around key features, and remaining subsoil is compacted into an impervious pavement on which vegetation recolonization is unlikely in the short term. Social tracks made by tourists were present at both tourist sites often leading them onto hotter soils than constructed tracks. Vegetation height and cover were lower on and adjacent to social tracks than further from them. Thermotolerant vegetation showed extremely low resistance to experimental trampling. This confirms and extends previous research that also shows that thallophytes and woody shrubs, life forms that dominate in thermotolerant vegetation, are vulnerable to trampling damage. Preservation of these vulnerable ecosystems must ensure that tourist traffic is confined to existing tracks or boardwalks, and active restoration of impacted sites may be warranted.     

Structural and optical characterization of dissolved organic matter from the lower Athabasca River, Canada

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a ubiquitous constituent of natural waters and is comprised of a variety of chemically heterogeneous molecular structures and functional groups. DOM is often considered to be a major ligand for metals in most natural waters and its reactivity is thought to be strongly dependent on its chemical composition and structure. In this study, a combination of UV/visible, emission excitation matrix fluorescence (EEM) and ¹H NMR spectroscopies were used to characterize DOM from the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada). The chemical characterization of river DOM showed that the most upstream samples located in agricultural areas were blue-shifted and less aromatic and contained more hydrogens connected with oxygen functional groups than those in the wetland dominated area in the Athabasca oil sand deposit region. The presence of paramagnetic ions (Fe and Al) was not found to significantly affect the structural composition of DOM as revealed by ¹H NMR. Such change in the quality of DOM may have a profound impact on metal binding in the Athabasca River watershed.     

Evolution of predictive tools for in situ bioremediation and natural attenuation evaluations

Proving the viability of in situ bioremediation technologies and gathering data for its full‐scale implementation typically involves collecting multiple rounds of data and often completing microcosm studies. Collecting these data is cumbersome, time‐consuming, costly, and typically difficult to scale. A new method of completing microcosm studies in situ using an amendable sampling device deployed and incubated in groundwater monitoring wells provides actionable data to expedite site cleanup. The device, referred to as a Bio‐Trap® sampler, is designed to collect actively colonizing microbes and dissolved organic compounds from groundwater for analysis using conventional analytical techniques and advanced diagnostic tools that can answer very specific design and viability questions relating to bioremediation. Key data that can be provided by in situ microcosm studies using Bio‐Trap® samplers include definitively demonstrating contaminant destruction by using compound‐specific isotope analysis and providing data on the mechanism of the degradation by identifying the responsible microbes. Three case studies are presented that demonstrate the combined flexibility of Bio‐Trap® samplers and advanced site diagnostics. The applications include demonstrating natural attenuation of dissolved chlorinated solvents, demonstrating natural attenuation of dissolved petroleum compounds, and using multiple Bio‐Trap® samplers to comparatively assess the viability of bioaugmentation at a chlorinated solvent release site. At each of these sites, the in situ microcosm studies quickly and cost‐effectively answered key design and viability questions, allowing for regulatory approval and successful full‐scale implementation. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.