Short-run allocation of emissions allowances and long-term goals for climate policy

We use economic analysis to evaluate grandfathering, auctioning, and benchmarking approaches for allocation of emissions allowances and then discuss practical experience from European and American schemes. In principle, auctions are superior from the viewpoints of efficiency, fairness, transparency, and simplicity. In practice, auctions have been opposed by important sectors of industry, which argue that carbon pricing without compensation would harm international competitiveness. In the European Union's Emissions Trading System, this concern led to grandfathering that is updated at various intervals. Unfortunately, updating gives industry an incentive to change behavior to influence future allocation. Furthermore, the wealth transferred to incumbent firms can be significantly larger than the extra costs incurred, leading to windfall profits. Meanwhile, potential auction revenues are not available to reduce other taxes. By circumscribing free allocation, benchmarking can target competitiveness concerns, incur less wealth transfer, and provide a strategy consistent with transitioning to auctions in the long run.     

Ancillary benefits of reduced air pollution in the US from moderate greenhouse gas mitigation policies in the electricity sector

Actions to slow atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases also would reduce conventional air pollutants yielding “ancillary” benefits that tend to accrue locally and in the near-term. Using a detailed electricity model linked to an integrated assessment framework to value changes in human health, we find a tax of $25 per metric ton of carbon emissions would yield NO_x-related health benefits of about $8 per metric ton of carbon reduced in the year 2010 (1997 dollars). Additional savings of $4–$7 accrue from reduced investment in NO_x and SO₂ abatement in order to comply with emission caps. Total ancillary benefits of a $25 carbon tax are $12–$14, which appear to justify the costs of a $25 tax, although marginal benefits are less than marginal costs. At a tax of $75, greater total benefits are achieved but the value per ton of carbon reductions remains roughly constant at about $12.     

Toxicity of chemical components of fine particles inhaled by aged rats: effects of concentration

This study tested the hypothesis that exposure to mixtures containing fine particles and ozone (O3) would cause pulmonary injury and decrements in functions of immunological cells in exposed rats (22-24 months old) in a dose-dependent manner. Rats were exposed to high and low concentrations of ammonium bisulfate and elemental carbon and to 0.2 ppm O3. Control groups were exposed to purified air or O3 alone. The biological end points measured included histopathological markers of lung injury, bronchoalveolar lung fluid proteins, and measures of the function of the lung's innate immunological defenses (macrophage antigen-directed phagocytosis and respiratory burst activity). Exposure to O3 alone at 0.2 ppm did not result in significant changes in any of the measured end points. Exposures to the particle mixtures plus O3 produced statistically significant changes consistent with adverse effects. The low-concentration mixture produced effects that were statistically significant compared to purified air but, with the exception of macrophage Fc receptor binding, exposure to the high-concentration mixture did not. The effects of the low- and high-concentration mixtures were not significantly different. The study supports previous work that indicated that particle + O3 mixtures were more toxic than O3 alone.     

Model selection criteria for overdispersed data and their application to the characterization of a host-parasite relationship

In the statistical modeling of a biological or ecological phenomenon, selecting an optimal model among a collection of candidates is a critical issue. To identify an optimal candidate model, a number of model selection criteria have been developed and investigated based on estimating Kullback’s (Information theory and statistics. Dover, Mineola, 1968) directed or symmetric divergence. Criteria that target the directed divergence include the Akaike (2nd international symposium on information theory. Akadémia Kiadó, Budapest, Hungary, pp 267–281, 1973, IEEE Trans Autom Control AC 19:716–723, 1974) information criterion, AIC, and the “corrected” Akaike information criterion (Hurvich and Tsai in Biometrika 76:297–307, 1989), AICc; criteria that target the symmetric divergence include the Kullback information criterion, KIC, and the “corrected” Kullback information criterion, KICc (Cavanaugh in Stat Probab Lett 42:333–343, 1999; Aust N Z J Stat 46:257–274, 2004). For overdispersed count data, simple modifications of AIC and AICc have been increasingly utilized: specifically, the quasi Akaike information criterion, QAIC, and its corrected version, QAICc (Lebreton et al. in Ecol Monogr 62(1):67–118 1992). In this paper, we propose analogues of QAIC and QAICc based on estimating the symmetric as opposed to the directed divergence: QKIC and QKICc. We evaluate the selection performance of AIC, AICc, QAIC, QAICc, KIC, KICc, QKIC, and QKICc in a simulation study, and illustrate their practical utility in an ecological application. In our application, we use the criteria to formulate statistical models of the tick (Dermacentor variabilis) load on a white-footed mouse (Peromyscus leucopus) in northern Missouri.     

Evolution of Organic Analytical Methods in Environmental Forensic Chemistry

Over the past few decades the development of environmental regulations, advances in analytical chemistry and other scientific disciplines, and increased rigor in quality control procedures have created a new discipline, environmental forensics. The need for analytical methods that determine qualitatively and quantitatively organic compounds in the environment, especially in drinking waters, was recognized in the early 1950s. These methods were developed gradually by the early 1960s. The important tools of gas chromatography and mass spectroscopy that evolved in the 1970s provided the early environmental forensic chemist for the first time with the ability to produce scientifically sound data that was admissible in court. By the 1990s, multivariate statistical techniques became available and accepted, including principal component analysis (PCA) and polytopic vector analysis (PVA). These techniques, coupled with the advancing analytical methods, have enabled forensic investigator tools to evaluate and demonstrate unique attributes of a set of data. Analyses of marker compounds, PCBs, PCDD/Fs and petroleum hydrocarbons are all shown to be potentially valuable in deciphering the source and fate of contamination. This paper shows how advancements in environmental analytical chemistry provide the forensic chemist with tools to assess the source(s) of site contamination.     

What have we learnt from the European Union's Emissions Trading System?

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) demonstrated the ability to design and launch a large-scale trading system in a short period of time. The path from initial reticence about emissions trading to implementation of the world's largest program is an important history. Three issues play a large role in the evaluation of the program to date and its on-going development: allocation plans, cost uncertainty, and leakage of emissions to abroad. Decisions in Phase I and II (2005-2012) were responsive to questions of political feasibility and implementation, but some of these decisions including allocation in particular will be substantially revised in Phase III (2013-2020).     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

Quality Science in the Courtroom: U.S. EPA Data Quality and Peer Review Policies and Procedures Compared to the Daubert Factors

Protection of the environment is critically dependent on the quality of data used in decision making. Whether the decisions are part of the scientific process or relate to application of the laws governing people and their living conditions, good quality data are required/needed by two disciplines with distinct differences. This paper examines some differences between science and the law, provides a brief history of science in law, discusses the effects of law on science, compares United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) guidance and U.S. Supreme Court credible science criteria. This paper further speculates on the future use of science data by the courts.     

Toxicity of Chemical Components of Fine Particles Inhaled by Aged Rats: Effects of Concentration

Abstract

This study tested the hypothesis that exposure to mixtures containing fine particles and ozone (O₃) would cause pulmonary injury and decrements in functions of immunological cells in exposed rats (22–24 months old) in a dose-dependent manner. Rats were exposed to high and low concentrations of ammonium bisulfate and elemental carbon and to 0.2 ppm O₃. Control groups were exposed to purified air or O₃ alone. The biological end points measured included histopathological markers of lung injury, bronchoalveolar lung fluid proteins, and measures of the function of the lung’s innate immuno-logical defenses (macrophage antigen-directed phagocytosis and respiratory burst activity). Exposure to O₃ alone at 0.2 ppm did not result in significant changes in any of the measured end points. Exposures to the particle mixtures plus O₃ produced statistically significant changes consistent with adverse effects. The low-concentration mixture produced effects that were statistically significant compared to purified air but, with the exception of macrophage Fc receptor binding, exposure to the high-concentration mixture did not. The effects of the low- and high-concentration mixtures were not significantly different. The study supports previous work that indicated that particle + O₃ mixtures were more toxic than O₃ alone.