METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

The seasonal cycles and photochemistry of C2–C5 alkanes at Mace Head

Continuous in-situ measurements of NMHCs at Mace Head, Ireland during two full annual cycles from January 2005 to January 2007 were used to investigate NMHC emission sources and transport including dilution and photochemical oxidation. The Mace Head research station is ideally located to sample a wide range of air masses including polluted European transport, clean North Atlantic and Arctic air masses and the ultra-clean, Southern Atlantic air masses. The variety in air mass sampling is used to investigate interaction of emissions, transport, dilution and photochemistry. Variability of long-lived hydrocarbon ratios is used to assess and estimate typical transport times from emission source to the Mace Head receptor. Seasonality in the ratios of isomeric alkane pairs (for butane and pentanes) are used to assess the effects of atmospheric transport and photochemical ageing. Finally, the natural logarithms of NMHC ratios are used to assess photochemical oxidation.     

Monitoring of soil and groundwater contamination following a pipeline explosion and petroleum product spillage in Ijegun, Lagos Nigeria

In May 2008, an accidental damage of a Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) pipeline occurred in Ijegun area of Lagos, Nigeria, resulting in oil spillage and consequent contamination of the environment. The residual concentration of the total hydrocarbon (THC) and benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) in the groundwater and soil was therefore investigated between March 2009 and July 2010. Results showed elevated THC mean levels in groundwater which were above the World Health Organization maximum admissible value of 0.1 mg/l. THC values as high as 757.97 mg/l in groundwater and 402.52 mg/l in soil were observed in March 2009. Pronounced seasonal variation in the concentration of THC in groundwater and soil samples show that there was significant (P?<?0.05) difference in the measured concentration of THC between each season (dry and wet), with the highest being in the dry season and between the years 2009 and 2010. Significant hydrocarbon contamination, 500 m beyond the explosion site and 25 months after the incident, was observed revealing the extent of the spillage of petroleum products. The highest concentrations of 16.65 μg/l (benzene), 2.08 μg/l (toluene), and 4864.79 μg/l (xylene) were found in stations within the 100 m buffer zone. Most of the samples of groundwater taken were above the target value of 0.2 μg/l set for BTEX compounds by the Environmental Guidelines and Standards for Petroleum Industry in Nigeria. The level of hydrocarbon in the impacted area calls for concern and remediation of the area is urgently needed to reduce further negative impact on the ecosystem.     

A History of the Production and Use of Carbon Tetrachloride,Tetrachloroethylene, Trichloroethylene and 1,1,1-Trichloroethane in the United States: Part 1--Historical Background; Carbon Tetrachloride and Tetrachloroethylene

Carbon tetrachloride (CTC), tetrachloroethylene (PCE), trichloroethylene (TCE) and 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCA) were four of the most widely used cleaning and degreasing solvents in the United States. These compounds were also used in a wide variety of other applications. The history of the production and use of these four compounds is linked to the development and growth of the United States' synthetic organic chemical industry, and historical events that affected the development and use of chlorinated solvents in general. Part 1 of this article includes a discussion of the historical background common to each of the four solvents, followed by discussion on the history of CTC and PCE. In the early years of the 20th century, CTC became the first of the four solvents to come into widespread use. CTC was used as a replacement for petroleum distillates in the dry-cleaning industry, but was later replaced by PCE. In the 1990s, CTC was phased out under the Montreal Protocol due to its role in stratospheric ozone depletion.     

Walking in the Irish countryside: landowner preferences and attitudes to improved public access provision

This paper explores the attitudes of landowners across Ireland to the wider provision of public access for recreational walking using a multinomial logit model. The study also investigates the level of compensation required to improve the supply of this public good. Results indicate that 51% of landowners are not willing to provide access (non-providers), 21% are willing to provide access free of charge (free providers) and 28% seek compensation (willing providers). The findings indicate that participation by landowners in a proposed public access scheme is influenced by landowners' experience with walkers, farm type, farm insurance costs, household demographics, regional variations, opportunity cost of land and participation in other agri-environment schemes. Mean willingness-to-accept for landowners willing to facilitate improved public access for walking was found to be €0.27 per metre of walkway.     

Design and startup of a membrane-biological-reactor system at a Ford-engine plant for treating oily wastewater.

A wastewater-treatment facility at Ford (Dearborn, Michigan) was recently upgraded from chemical de-emulsification to ultrafiltration (UF) followed by a membrane-biological reactor (MBR). This paper describes the design, startup, and initial operational performance of the facility. Primary findings are as follows: (1) the MBR proved resilient; (2) the MBR removed approximately 90% of chemical-oxygen demand (COD) after primary UF; (3) the removal of total Kjeldahl nitrogen by MBR appeared to be more sensitive to operating conditions than COD removal; (4) nitrification and denitrification were established in one month; (5) the MBR removed oil and grease and phenolics to below detection levels consistently, in contrast to widely fluctuating concentrations in the past; (6) permeate fluxes of the primary and MBR UF were adversely affected by inadvertent use of a silicone-based defoamer; and (7) zinc concentrations in the effluent increased, which might have been a result of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid used in membrane washing solutions and/or might have been within typical concentration ranges.     

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.     

Diversity-function relationships changed in a long-term restoration experiment

The central tenet of biodiversity-ecosystem function (BEF) theory, that species richness increases function, could motivate restoration practitioners to incorporate a greater number of species into their projects. But it is not yet clear how well BEF theory predicts outcomes of restoration, because it has been developed through tests involving short-run and tightly controlled (e.g., weeded) experiments. Thus, we resampled our 1997 BEF experiment in a restored salt marsh to test for long-term effects of species richness (plantings with 1, 3, and 6 species per 2 x 2 m plot), with multiple ecosystem functions as response variables. Over 11 years, 1- and 6-species assemblages converged on intermediate richness (mean = 3.9 species/ 0.25-m2 plot), and composition changed nonrandomly throughout the site. While three species became rare, the two most productive species became co-dominant. The two dominants controlled and increased shoot biomass, which appeared to decrease species richness. Diversity-function relationships became less positive over 11 years and differed significantly with (a) the species-richness metric (planted vs. measured), and (b) the indicator of function (shoot biomass, height, and canopy layering). The loss of positive relationships between species richness and function in our restored site began soon after we stopped weeding and continued with increasing dominance by productive species. Where species-rich plantings are unlikely to ensure long-term restoration of functions, as in our salt marsh, we recommend dual efforts to establish (1) dominant species that provide high levels of target functions, and (2) subordinate species, which might provide additional functions under current or future conditions.