Sampling strategies in the assessment of long‐term exposures to toxic substances in air

The decision to mitigate exposures from vapor intrusion (VI) is typically based on limited data from 24‐hour air samples. It is well documented that these data do not accurately represent long‐term average exposures linked to adverse health effects. Limited decision guidance is currently available to determine the most appropriate sampling strategy, considering the cost of sampling alternatives along with the economic consequences of exposure‐related health effects. We present a decision model that introduces economic and statistical considerations in evaluating alternative VI sampling methods. The model characterizes the best sampling method by factoring economic and health consequences of exposure, the variability of exposure, the cost of sampling and mitigation, and the likelihood of false‐negatives and false‐positives. Decision‐makers can use results to select the sample size that maximizes net benefit. Conceptual and mathematical models are presented linking biological, statistical, and economic considerations to assess the cost and effectiveness of different sampling strategies. The model relates an average exposure concentration, determined statistically, to abatement costs and to the monetary value of health deterioration. The value of the information provided by different strategies is calculated and used to select the optimum sampling method. Simulations show that longer‐term sampling methods tend to be more accurate and cost‐effective than short‐term samples. The ideal sampling strategy shows significant seasonal variation (it is typically optimal to use longer samples in the winter) and also varies significantly with the stringency of regulatory standards. Longer‐term sample collection provides a more accurate representation of average VI exposure and reduces the likelihood of type I and type II errors. This reduces expected costs of mitigation and exposure (e.g., health consequences, legal and regulatory penalties), which in some cases can be quite significant. The model herein shows how these savings are balanced against the additional costs of longer‐term sampling.     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Single-source impact analysis using three-dimensional air quality models

Isolating the effects of an individual emissions source on secondary air pollutants such as ozone and some components of particulate matter must incorporate complex nonlinear processes, be sensitive to small emissions perturbations, and account for impacts that may occur hundreds of kilometers away. The ability to evaluate these impacts is becoming increasingly important for efficient air quality management. Here, as part of a recent compliance enforcement action for a violation of the Clean Air Act and as an evaluation of ozone response to single-source emissions plumes, two three-dimensional regional photochemical air quality models are used to assess the impact on ozone from approximately 2000 to 3000 excess t/month of nitrogen oxides emitted from a single power plant in Ohio. Periods in May, July, and August are evaluated. Two sensitivity methods are applied: the "brute-force" (B-F) method and the decoupled direct method (DDM). Using DDM, maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentrations are found to increase by up to 1.8, 1.3, and 2.2 ppbv during May, July, and August episodes, respectively, and concentration increases greater than 0.5 ppbv occur in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, West Virginia, Virginia, and North and South Carolina. B-F results for the August episode show a maximum 1-hr averaged ozone concentration increase of 2.3 ppbv. Significant localized decreases are also simulated, with a maximum of 3.6 ppbv in Ohio during the August episode and decreases of 0.50 ppbv and greater in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia. Maximum increases are compared with maximum decreases for the August period using second-order DDM and are found, in aggregate, to be greater in magnitude by 42%. When evaluated during hours when ozone concentrations exceed 0.060 ppm, the maximum increases in ozone are higher than decreases by 82%. The spatial extent of ozone increase in both cases is about triple that of reduction.     

Mechanism and catalytic performance for direct dimethyl ether synthesis by CO2 hydrogenation over CuZnZr/ferrierite hybrid catalyst

Direct synthesis of dimethyl ether(DME) by CO_2 hydrogenation has been investigated over three hybrid catalysts prepared by different methods:co-precipitation,sol-gel,and solid grinding to produce mixed Cu,ZnO,ZrO_2 catalysts that were physically mixed with a commercial ferrierite(FER) zeolite.The catalysts were characterized by N_2 physisorption,X-ray diffraction(XRD),transmission electron microscopy(TEM),X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS),temperature programmed desorption of CO_2(CO_2-TPD),temperature programmed desorption of NH_3(NH_3-TPD),and temperature programmed H2 reduction(H_2-TPR).The results demonstrate that smaller CuO and Cu crystallite sizes resulting in better dispersion of the active phases,higher surface area,and lower reduction temperature are all favorable for catalytic activity.The reaction mechanism has been studied using in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy(DRIFTS).Methanol appears to be formed via the bidentate-formate(b-HCOO) species undergoing stepwise hydrogenation,while DME formation occurs from methanol dehydration and reaction of two surface methoxy groups.     

Characterization of microbial communities from coastal waters using microarrays

Molecular methods, including DNA probes, were used to identify and enumerate pathogenic Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay; our data indicated that Vibrio vulnificus exhibits seasonal fluctuations in number. Our work included a characterization of total microbial communities from the Bay; development of microarrays that identify and quantify the diversity of those communities; and observation of temporal changes in those communities. To identify members of the microbial community, we amplified the 16S rDNA gene from community DNA isolated from a biofilm sample collected from the Chesapeake Bay in February, 2000. The resultant 75 sequences were 95% or more similar to 7 species including two recently described Shewanella species, baltica and frigidimarina, that have not been previously isolated from the Chesapeake. When the genera of bacteria from biofilm after culturing are compared to those detected by subcloning amplified 16S fragments from community DNA, the cultured sample exhibited a strong bias. In oysters collected in February, the most common bacteria were previously unknown. Based on our 16S findings, we are developing microarrays to detect these and other microbial species in these estuarine communities. The microarrays will detect each species using four distinct loci, with the multiple loci serving as an internal control. The accuracy of the microarray will be measured using sentinel species such as Aeromonas species, Escherichia coli, and Vibrio vulnificus. Using microarrays, it should be possible to determine the annual fluctuations of bacterial species (culturable and non-culturable, pathogenic and non-pathogenic). The data may be applied to understanding patterns of environmental change; assessing the health of the Bay; and evaluating the risk of human illness associated with exposure to and ingestion of water and shellfish.     

Monitoring Carbon Sequestration Benefits Associated with a Reduced-Impact Logging Project in Malaysia

The Reduced-Impact Logging Project, a pilot carbon offset project, was initiated in 1992 when a power company provided funds to a timber concessionaire to implement timber-harvesting guidelines in dipterocarp forest. The rationale for the offset is that when logging damage is reduced, more, carbon is retained in living trees, and, because soil damage is minimized, forest productivity remains high. To estimate the carbon benefit associated with implementation of harvesting guidelines, a monitoring program was developed based on 1) field studies for measuring carbon stocks and flows; 2) a computer model of forest carbon dynamics for simulating various combinations of harvesting intensity and damage; and, 3) a projection model for calculating carbon balance over the project lifespan. Seventy-five percent of the carbon stored in this forest is in biomass, and of this, 59% is in large, trees (≧6- cm, diameter); consequently, reliable estimates of variables related to large trees are critical to the estimate of carbon benefits. Allometric methods for estimating belowground biomass are recommended over pit-sampling methods because of low cost-effectiveness of obtaining precise estimates of woody root biomass. Sensitivity analyses of variables used in the simulation model suggest that maintenance of ecosystem productivity has a large influence on long-term carbon storage in the forest. Projections of differences in carbon stores between the reduced-impact and conventional logging sites rely on assumptions about tree mortality, growth, and recruitment; published, data for comparable sites in Malaysia are probably appropriate for estimating forest recovery from conventional but not reduced-impact logging. Continuing field work is expected to provide the data needed to evaluate assumptions of the models.     

International Workshop on Sustainable Forestry Management: Monitoring and Verification of Greenhouse Gases - Summary Statement

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

The effect of the introduction of prenatal diagnosis on the reproductive history of women at increased risk from neural tube defects

The reproductive history of 45 couples at increased risk for neural tube defect (NTD) who came for genetic counselling in 1970 and 1971 were compared with a similar number counselled in 1975 and 1976, when prenatal diagnostic tests were freely offered. They were subsequently interviewed in their homes and had their reproductive history recorded to the end of 1973 and 1978 respectively. Nearly all had a previous child with an NTD and none of the women were pregnant at the time of counselling. The effect of prenatal diagnosis was to speed somewhat the decision about further pregnancies, but the number of couples deciding on no further children and on having further pregnancies were almost identical in the two groups. The average number of pregnancies was 2·8 per family, with only 1·2 surviving children. The pregnancy outcomes are discussed as are the reasons for not attempting further pregnancies in both groups, which included very high risk of recurrence, a surviving spina bifida child, inability to accept the tests or its implications. Ninety per cent of the second group had tests. Their reactions to the tests were favourable but all complained of the waiting time between amniocentesis and obtaining the results. They all would have tests again in any future pregnancy. The reason for women not having prenatal diagnostic tests included inability to accept termination. It is concluded that couples in South Wales decide either to have no more children or to have further pregnancies regardless of tests. but tests speed a decision and enable the women to enjoy the pregnancy after obtaining the results, and that an NTD greatly reduces the number of children per family. A termination for an NTD is much more acceptable to most than an NTD at term. The reasons for this are discussed.     

Flow rate and particle concentration within the house of the pelagic tunicate Oikopleura vanhoeffeni

The food-concentrating filter within the house of Oikopleura vanhoeffeni Lohmann consists of three layers, upper and lower fine-mesh layers and an intermediate coarse-mesh layer. The filter is a natural analogue of man-made tangential, or cross-flow, filters that are used to concentrate fine particulate and colloidal material by the exclusion of water. Flow analysis using video microscopy of O. vanhoeffeni, collected in 1989 and 1990 at Logy Bay, insular Newfoundland, indicates concentration of particles of 74 to 1089 times that of ambient seawater ( ,n=23), for individuals 1.8 to 5.4 mm long. The smallest individuals had the highest concentration factors. Flow through the house is predominately affected by viscous forces and values of Reynolds numbers are 1. Flow rates through the house of O. vanhoeffeni indicate a maximum filtration capacity of ca. 1.4 to 26 liters d^-1 and clearance rates (assuming ca. 50% of the time is spent not actively pumping) of 0.7 to 13 liters d^-1, depending on body size. The estimated thickness of the boundary layer around individual fibers of the food-concentrating filter is 0.08 m, which is less than the pore width. The estimated concentration factors suggest that colloidal and fine particulate material may aggregate into larger particles within the food-concentrating filter and food tube during feeding.