Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

土壤污染物的生态毒理效应和风险评估研究进展

环境生态风险评估（ERA）流程已经被纳入全球环境政策中，既用于规范新化学物质的授权和营销（前瞻性环境生态风险评估），也用于评估潜在的污染场地（回顾性环境生态风险评估）。将土壤生态毒理学应用于风险评估，能阐明有毒物质对土壤生态系统中生命有机体的危害程度与范围。笔者主要介绍了应用评估因子法和物种敏感度分布法对基于效应数据进行的外推与估算，并综述了欧美等主要国家和地区的土壤生态风险评估框架、相关法律法规及其实施情况等，为中国开展土壤污染物生态毒理效应和风险评估等相关研究提供参考。     

松花江野生鱼类重金属残留分析与评价

以松花江流域的野生鱼类为研究对象,在松花江流域选取松林、大顶子山、佳木斯3个具有代表性的点位,在2014—2016年的每年5月底6月初采集鲤鱼和鲫鱼样品,3年内共制备45个鲤鱼单样,44个鲤鱼混样,30个鲫鱼混样,共计119个。采用电感耦合等离子体-质谱法对鱼类肌肉组织中残留的As、Cd、Cr、Pb、Hg 5种重金属进行检测。检测结果显示,As、Cd、Cr、Pb、Hg 5种重金属全部检出,检测结果全部达标,达标率为100%。根据检测结果采用单因子指数法和金属污染指数法等评价了松花江流域鱼体重金属残留状况及食用安全性,评价结果为松花江流域鱼类重金属残留量相对较少,鱼体健康,食用安全。     

饮用水源微生物快速检测技术的发展及应用

微生物是威胁饮用水安全的首要问题，水环境微生物快速检测技术的开发和应用是推动饮用水源微生物快速检测和水质安全预警技术发展的保障。随着对水质微生物污染快速检测和准确预警新要求的提出，水环境中微生物在线检测和预警技术得到了越来越多的开发和应用。笔者总结了水环境常见微生物检测方法和技术的发展，重点讨论了饮用水源微生物快速检测技术的发展和应用，根据各项技术的应用和推广使用程度，将其归纳为常用快速检测技术、潜在适用快速检测技术和新型快速检测技术等类别，并详细阐述了一些应用较广的技术，以期为构建水质微生物污染早期预警系统提供参考。     

浮游动物DNA宏条形码标志基因比较研究

DNA宏条形码技术作为一种新型生物监测方法,在未来生态环境监测中有巨大的应用潜力。目前,浮游动物DNA宏条形码监测仍在发展阶段,需要首先对其(采样方法、引物选择和数据分析等)进行标准化和调整,然后才能用于常规流域生态监测。其中,如何选择合适的PCR扩增引物是DNA宏条形码生物监测标准化的关键问题之一。本研究比较了COI、18SV9和16S通用引物在浮游动物DNA宏条形码监测中的差异,为初步建立规范化的浮游动物DNA宏条形码监测方法提供技术支撑。结果表明,16S引物对浮游动物具有更好的特异性,其产生的操作分类单元(operational taxonomic unit, OTU)有88.1%属于浮游动物。虽然18SV9引物具有更高的物种覆盖度,不仅能扩增出浮游动物,还能扩增出大量藻类和真菌,但其物种识别敏感性较差,不适合浮游动物物种水平多样性监测。COI引物的浮游动物物种特异性、物种覆盖度和物种识别敏感性都适中,检出的浮游动物物种数量高于18SV9引物和16S引物,更加适合浮游动物DNA宏条形码监测。     

Boosting freshwater fish conservation with high-resolution distribution mapping across a large territory

The lack of high-resolution distribution maps for freshwater species across large extents fundamentally challenges biodiversity conservation worldwide. We devised a simple framework to delineate the distributions of freshwater fishes in a high-resolution drainage map based on stacked species distribution models and expert information. We applied this framework to the entire Chinese freshwater fish fauna (>1600 species) to examine high-resolution biodiversity patterns and reveal potential conflicts between freshwater biodiversity and anthropogenic disturbances. The correlations between spatial patterns of biodiversity facets (species richness, endemicity, and phylogenetic diversity) were all significant (r = 0.43–0.98, p < 0.001). Areas with high values of different biodiversity facets overlapped with anthropogenic disturbances. Existing protected areas (PAs), covering 22% of China's territory, protected 25–29% of fish habitats, 16–23% of species, and 30–31% of priority conservation areas. Moreover, 6–21% of the species were completely unprotected. These results suggest the need for extending the network of PAs to ensure the conservation of China's freshwater fishes and the goods and services they provide. Specifically, middle to low reaches of large rivers and their associated lakes from northeast to southwest China hosted the most diverse species assemblages and thus should be the target of future expansions of the network of PAs. More generally, our framework, which can be used to draw high-resolution freshwater biodiversity maps combining species occurrence data and expert knowledge on species distribution, provides an efficient way to design PAs regardless of the ecosystem, taxonomic group, or region considered.     

体育场雨水回用可行性初探

以杭州某体育场为例,分析该体育场收集屋面和路面雨水作为体育场绿化、田径场喷灌、跑道浇洒等水源的可行性,结果表明该体育场通过雨水回用达到绿色建筑节水率要求,并提高大型体育场水循环利用率、实现水资源的可持续利用。     

长白山温带森林挥发性有机物的排放通量

2010年夏季,在长白山温带森林开展了挥发性有机物(VOC)排放通量以及气象参数、PAR的综合测量.VOC排放通量采用松弛涡度积累(RelaxedEddyAccumulation)技术在森林冠层上进行测量.初步发现长白山阔叶林主要排放α-蒎烯、β-蒎烯、莰烯、香桧烯、月桂烯、蒈烯、柠檬烯、罗勒烯、松油烯、繖花烃、萜品油烯、三环烯等.研究表明,长白山阔叶混交林VOC排放有明显的日变化——早晚较低和中午前后较高.2010年夏季,单萜烯总排放通量的平均值为0.242mg·m·h-2-1,其变化范围为0.005～1.668mg·m·h-2-1;各成分排放通量的平均值(和最大值)分别为α-蒎烯0.072(0.234)、莰烯0.028(0.356)、月桂烯0.027(0.433)、蒈烯0.023(0.173)、柠檬烯0.037(0.197)、罗勒烯0.016(0.168)、萜品油烯0.053(0.320)、繖花烃0.067(0.755)mg·m·h-2-1.研究还发现VOC排放通量与气温之间存在一定的联系.     

天津市典型排污河水体中溶解性有机质的荧光分布特征分析

利用三维荧光光谱研究了天津市两条典型排污河(大沽排污河和北塘排污河)沿河水体中溶解性有机质(DOM)的荧光分布特征,并通过对荧光参数——紫外区类富里酸峰中心位置的荧光强度与可见区类富里酸峰中心位置的荧光强度比值(r(A,C))和激发光波长370nm时荧光发射光谱强度在450nm与500nm处的比值(f450/500)的分析,探讨了水体中DOM的来源.结果表明,大沽排污河除中游个别位置外,其它位置水体均能检出紫外区类富里酸、类蛋白、可见光区类腐殖质、紫外区类腐殖质,总体上呈中游少、上下游多的特点;而北塘排污河水体中DOM的荧光峰从上游到下游呈增多趋势,但检出数量比较少.两条排污河水体中DOM均以紫外区类腐殖质最强.两条排污河水体中DOM的荧光强度与其水质参数之间存在显著相关性,而大沽排污河的相关系数更大.结合荧光参数r(A,C)和f450/500的分析和现场对入河排污口的调研,发现两条排污河的溶解性有机质来源均以入河排污口排污汇入(陆源)为主,另外还有少量沉积物有机质释放(微生物作用).