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Mathematical models are utilized to approximate various highly complex engineering, physical, environmental, social, and economic phenomena. Model parameters exerting the most influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis. A comprehensive review is presented of more than a dozen sensitivity analysis methods. This review is intended for those not intimately familiar with statistics or the techniques utilized for sensitivity analysis of computer models. The most fundamental of sensitivity techniques utilizes partial differentiation whereas the simplest approach requires varying parameter values one-at-a-time. Correlation analysis is used to determine relationships between independent and dependent variables. Regression analysis provides the most comprehensive sensitivity measure and is commonly utilized to build response surfaces that approximate complex models.  相似文献
2.
The large amounts of tritium produced at the Savannah River Site (SRS) coupled with the current dose reconstruction study at the facility emphasize the importance of ensuring accurate and efficient prediction of tritium doses to the public. Presently, dose estimates to the general population in the site vicinity are calculated annually using a five year meteorological database. Determining whether detailed monthly dose estimates are necessary or whether annual averaged data is sufficient offers the potential for more efficient dose prediction. In this study, off site collective committed doses and maximum individual doses due to atmospheric tritium releases were calculated according to the methods outlined in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Regulatory Guide 1.109 and compared using monthly versus five-year meteorological data and source terms. Site-specific variables not currently utilized at SRS for annual dose estimates also have been included. In addition, the range of predicted doses, based on the distribution in model parameters given in the literature, were estimated. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to determine the influence of model inputs on dose estimates. Results corroborate previous studies by indicating that the primary contributor to infant tritium dose is the ingestion of milk, while for all other age groups, the most important pathway is the ingestion of vegetation. These relative pathway contributions remain constant throughout the year for infants; for children, teenagers, and adults, however, inhalation and absorption of tritium through the skin increases in relative importance in the months of June to September. It was found that the model utilized was most sensitive to dose factors, the ratio of the specific activity of tritium oxide in vegetation to the specific activity of atmospheric tritium oxide, and breathing rates. Most importantly, it was found that over a five-year period, the use of averaged meteorological data results in total individual doses that are only 2 to 6% higher than doses determined monthly, depending on the pathway of interest.  相似文献
3.
The Kyrghyz Republic, located in the southeastern region ofthe former Soviet Union, maintains a population of more thanone-half-million persons and is heavily dependent on LakeIssyk-Kyol, both to draw tourists to the area and for itsutilization by some as a food and recreation source. Historical surveys, conducted primarily for geologicalexploration, have indicated that localized areas ofshoreline on Lake Issyk-Kyol have relative radiation levelsin excess of ambient background by as much as a factor often. Uranium mining operations in the mountains borderingthe lake to the south may have resulted in the contaminationof a number of areas on the lake's southern shore. Concentrations of naturally occurring uranium, thorium, andpotassium are present in these soils in elevated quantities. This paper presents the results of an investigation of soilconcentrations along the shoreline of Lake Issyk-Kyolrelative to previously discovered areas of high exposurerate.  相似文献
4.
The large amounts of tritium produced at the Savannah River Site (SRS) coupled with the current dose reconstruction study at the facility emphasize the importance of ensuring accurate and efficient prediction of tritium doses to the public. Presently, dose estimates to the general population in the site vicinity are calculated annually using a five year meteorological database. Determining whether detailed monthly dose estimates are necessary or whether annual averaged data is sufficient offers the potential for more efficient dose prediction. In this study, off site collective committed doses and maximum individual doses due to atmospheric tritium releases were calculated according to the methods outlined in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Regulatory Guide 1.109 and compared using monthly versus five-year meteorological data and source terms. Site-specific variables not currently utilized at SRS for annual dose estimates also have been included. In addition, the range of predicted doses, based on the distribution in model parameters given in the literature, were estimated. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to determine the influence of model inputs on dose estimates. Results corroborate previous studies by indicating that the primary contributor to infant tritium dose is the ingestion of milk, while for all other age groups, the most important pathway is the ingestion of vegetation. These relative pathway contributions remain constant throughout the year for infants; for children, teenagers, and adults, however, inhalation and absorption of tritium through the skin increases in relative importance in the months of June to September. It was found that the model utilized was most sensitive to dose factors, the ratio of the specific activity of tritium oxide in vegetation to the specific activity of atmospheric tritium oxide, and breathing rates. Most importantly, it was found that over a five-year period, the use of averaged meteorological data results in total individual doses that are only 2 to 6% higher than doses determined monthly, depending on the pathway of interest.  相似文献
5.
Radioactive materials which are released into streams on the Savannah River Site (SRS) eventually flow into the Savannah River. Tritium, 90Sr, 137Cs, and 239Pu account for the majority of the radiation dose received by users of the Savannah River. This paper focuses on the dose uncertainties originating from variability in parameters describing the transport and uptake of these nuclides. Parameter sensitivity has also been determined for each liquid pathway exposure model. The models used here to estimate radiation dose to an exposed individual provide a range of possible dose estimates that span approximately one order of magnitude. A pathway analysis reveals that aquatic food and water consumption account for more than 95% of the total dose to an individual.  相似文献
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